Thanks guys. Again,I'll update later. feels like the hit rate will be around 58%
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A possible resurrection??
After many, many emails with Nash13, I think I finally have the formula for the first inning over (only over) play. Nash13 did an amazing job and is just plain and simple, a class act guy! Thank you again Nash!!!
So, I just back tested the entire season and the numbers are excellent. YTD the system is 101-60 (62.7%).
Opening day until July 27th; 58-32 (64.4%)
July 27th until Sept 8th; 43-25 (63.2%)
The system went 22-14 last September, which is 61.1% so I think it might be worth giving it a shot.
This system relies mainly on team data, so I will be able to post picks relatively early. You can also expect no more than 3, maybe 4 picks a day. These are Septembers picks:
Sept 03, ATL/PHI won
Sept 06, ATL/WAS won
Sept 06, TOR/NYY won
Sept 07, TOR/NYY loss
Sept 08, PHI/WSH loss
Sept 09, TBA
I will be risking 2% / position. Let's see how this performs!Comment -
Your never give up spirit is amazing.Comment -
This. Love the devotion to finding the perfect formula!
Personally, I'm still somewhat at odds with how much I think data can ever lead to a successful correlation with something as nebulous as FIRST-INNING runs (as opposed to a whole game or 1H or 2H), but I love picturing you as Professor Frink from the Simpsons, down in the lab pouring shit into test tubes and clacking away on your command center until it spits out the right answer.
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.This. Love the devotion to finding the perfect formula!
Personally, I'm still somewhat at odds with how much I think data can ever lead to a successful correlation with something as nebulous as FIRST-INNING runs (as opposed to a whole game or 1H or 2H), but I love picturing you as Professor Frink from the Simpsons, down in the lab pouring shit into test tubes and clacking away on your command center until it spits out the right answer.
My man, I deadlift 520, now you got everyone in here thinking I look like a nerd....
I am a man of the game, have been playing it for almost 30 years. Baseball has taught me many things, one thing is the law of averages... And jump on trends. We'll be fine.
A good mix of both technical analysis and sports knowledge is the best if you ask me. How many times have you skipped a bet because a certain team or player burnt you in the past? How many times has a nerd played a game although, a certain player was scratched last minute?? You see where I'm going, right.Comment -
Ha, wasn't trying to offend, brother, I meant nerdy in a GOOD way! No one here cares how you look or how much you can lift anyway, the heroes on here are the folks who can find the winning formulas, so I admire all of you who put the time in to do it!
Professor Frink is my favorite Simpsons character -- I looked at tons of funny clips but this was a short, cute one so threw it in.
There's actually a scene where he does invent a gambling machine, but I couldn't find it by itself!
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Didn't take it personally at all my man.Ha, wasn't trying to offend, brother, I meant nerdy in a GOOD way! No one here cares how you look or how much you can lift anyway, the heroes on here are the folks who can find the winning formulas, so I admire all of you who put the time in to do it!
Professor Frink is my favorite Simpsons character -- I looked at tons of funny clips but this was a short, cute one so threw it in.
There's actually a scene where he does invent a gambling machine, but I couldn't find it by itself!
Feel free to check out some new work in here. http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...l#post26233666
I have no idea how this is going to perform live... lolComment -
TT Are you going to be posting your NFL plays in the NFL forum?Comment -
Over (run(s) in 1st):
PHI/WAS, 2%Comment -
Thank Goodness! I've missed you guys! I've been doing better than expected with my own 1st inning picks, (most days), but it hasn't been the same w/o you guys.
I'm also looking forward to your football thread, TT. Had a small wager on 1st quarter O7.5 last night--glad I kept it small.Comment -
Great to be back and to see you in here. Can't wait to get going again! Thank Goodness! I've missed you guys! I've been doing better than expected with my own 1st inning picks, (most days), but it hasn't been the same w/o you guys.
I'm also looking forward to your football thread, TT. Had a small wager on 1st quarter O7.5 last night--glad I kept it small.Comment -
NOt getting many signals lately. I'm also working on an under indicator. Tonight's SD/SFG game is giving me under signals but I don't trust either of the starters and will pass. Will be interesting to see how the first inning goes. I'll update as soon as I get another signal.Comment -
Hopefully!Comment -
Almost forgot to cap today's games. Nash reminded me. Thanks for the heads up my man!!
4% each:
Overs:
PIT/PHI
NYM/WAS
SEA/LAAComment -
WSH/ATL over
This will be bet a of a three leg chase. Risking 3%Comment -
Interesting fact:
Only one out of eleven of yesterdays' games saw a run in the first inning. Expect to see some runs tonight, the law of averages usually has it's way. I'm not getting any signals at all from the refined system but a few of them look juicy!Comment -
As you guys might have noticed this new system is extremely selective.
I have one play today and if it fails we will be chasing twice within the next few days. Please note that I will only be risking 3% today, if we miss the second leg of the series will be about a 12% bet, followed by a 28% bet. For those who are following and would also like to chase, please note that this will suck up about 43% of your BR if it reaches the third bet! If you do not have the capacity to trail, please lower your initial wager or do not chase!
I'll have the play up in an hour or so.Comment -
TB/CWS over 0.5Comment -
A line on your selections would be super helpful. This will especially be true once you start cracking on that new system. If you're hitting like we hope you will there will be lots of silent followers hammering the number. I'd like to think getting in late wouldn't matter if you're hitting 70%, but I know it will. If you're catching the play at, let's say, -110, and my out has it at -125, lots of value has been sucked out of it, obviously. But if you're getting it at -125 and I'm getting it at -125, then I'll know I'm not late to the party and that I can fire away tailing you. In this game every cent is crucial to the bottom line, especially if you're making it your livelihood. Best of luck to you.
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Hi TT, been following your plays for a while (lurking) but finally created an account and wanted to say thanks for them, some great picks. I'm more of a hockey guy myself but wondering how you make these picks?Comment -
Very nice hit. Both teams nearly hit 1R in the 1st inning. System is looking great my friend.
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Sorry about the delay. The first inning run lines usually vary between +120 and -133. My selections are almost always between -120 and +110.A line on your selections would be super helpful. This will especially be true once you start cracking on that new system. If you're hitting like we hope you will there will be lots of silent followers hammering the number. I'd like to think getting in late wouldn't matter if you're hitting 70%, but I know it will. If you're catching the play at, let's say, -110, and my out has it at -125, lots of value has been sucked out of it, obviously. But if you're getting it at -125 and I'm getting it at -125, then I'll know I'm not late to the party and that I can fire away tailing you. In this game every cent is crucial to the bottom line, especially if you're making it your livelihood. Best of luck to you.
I usually subscribe to threads which I am looking to follow. Emails are usually sent out about 2-3 minutes after someone posts in it. This is, in my opinion the easiest/quickest way to trail.Comment -
Sure, I created a SDQL query with a fellow member on here. It started out pretty simple but has evolved in to something somplex over the last few weeks. Read up on the thread, I give out plenty of hints on how I cap the first.
The best tip I can give to people looking at capping the first is to ignore a SP's ERA, it's what he does in the first which matters and to also ignore any starting batter which hits below the sixth spot in the lineup. Their AB's will either come in the second or after a run is scored in the first.
Have an idea, do your homework and stick with it until you can come to a 100% conclusion that you are either on to something or that you need to move on. Don't ever half step while gambling with your hard earned cash!!Comment -
Thanks ladies and gents.
I have another one ready for today. I'll have it posted about an hour or two before the game starts, so make sure you check in a good hour before first pitch of the 7PM games. It is not the SEA/HOU game.
Again, this will be the first leg of a three game chase.Comment -
Here we go:
TB/CWS over, risking 3%
Anyone surprised it's TB/CWS again?
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