o/u 0.5 1st inning plays

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  • jlani93
    SBR High Roller
    • 05-06-16
    • 107

    #771
    Originally posted by TechnicalTrader
    Thanks, maybe we can get a little chatroom going during the offseason where we can bounce back ideas and strategies. I'm ok with sharing the strat, just needs to be with the right "type of people"!

    I'd also be real interested in refining it and creating something that evolves. I've messed around with plenty of trading systems in fx and one thing is for sure, if you don't evolve as a trader and evolve your system you will eventually go broke. The markets, just like sports lines are live, it's almost like they live. The only way to survive is to understand how and where they are moving.

    In other words, my system just isnt in tune with the "market" and I need to find out why and how to fix it... Or, walk away. Again, my workload is massive right now but I love this game of baseball and finding trends too much to give up that easily. Sure, it helps that today is Friday! LOL


    I think starting a chatroom during the offseason sounds like a good idea. You make a lot of sense and I definitely see why any system needs to evolve and change as the market (or lines) change.

    I'm glad you decided to give today another try. Although I do hope you get some rest over the weekend. Even just a little R&R does wonders...mentally and physically.
    Comment
    • Hawk007
      SBR MVP
      • 01-26-09
      • 2492

      #772
      GL today TT.

      Hope you have a big day, or at least show a profit.

      Have any systems for the upcoming football season?
      NCAA Basketball
      '08-'09 (12-8) 60%
      '09-'10 (63-46) 58%
      WNBA
      '10 (45-29) 64%
      CFL
      '10 (20-18)
      NCAAF
      '10 (16-7)
      Comment
      • TechnicalTrader
        SBR MVP
        • 05-09-16
        • 1434

        #773
        Originally posted by Hawk007
        GL today TT.

        Hope you have a big day, or at least show a profit.

        Have any systems for the upcoming football season?
        Thanks fellow 1st inning capper! Get em today, get em good and keep it coming!
        Comment
        • thekoreanmang
          SBR MVP
          • 03-17-14
          • 1422

          #774
          Originally posted by blackHIPPY
          we are going 0-7
          I think he's just trying to reverse jinx.
          Comment
          • TechnicalTrader
            SBR MVP
            • 05-09-16
            • 1434

            #775
            Originally posted by thekoreanmang
            I think he's just trying to reverse jinx.
            ??xnij esrever eht
            Comment
            • blackHIPPY
              SBR MVP
              • 10-01-14
              • 3973

              #776
              Originally posted by TechnicalTrader
              ??xnij esrever eht
              sey
              Comment
              • thekoreanmang
                SBR MVP
                • 03-17-14
                • 1422

                #777
                Originally posted by TechnicalTrader
                ??xnij esrever eht
                What does this mean?

                Hawk007 got his picks up early and looks like you guys overlap on four picks. The two you both have overs on are:

                KC/BOS, 2%
                CLE/TEX, 3%

                However, he's also going over on

                CIN/ARZ, 2%
                ATL/SF, 3%


                which you are going under on.
                Comment
                • Looking4Winners
                  SBR MVP
                  • 12-21-11
                  • 1198

                  #778
                  Originally posted by thekoreanmang
                  What does this mean?
                  Try reading the message backwards..
                  Comment
                  • TechnicalTrader
                    SBR MVP
                    • 05-09-16
                    • 1434

                    #779
                    Originally posted by thekoreanmang
                    What does this mean?

                    Hawk007 got his picks up early and looks like you guys overlap on four picks. The two you both have overs on are:

                    KC/BOS, 2%
                    CLE/TEX, 3%

                    However, he's also going over on

                    CIN/ARZ, 2%
                    ATL/SF, 3%


                    which you are going under on.
                    the reverse jinx ¦ xnij esrever eht

                    I can understand the over play on CIN/ARZ based strictly off of ERA's and how teams have been playing over the last few matchups. However, Finnegan has only givin up one run in his last 5 outings, while Shipley put up nothing but zeroes in his last 5 starts. I usually only look at SP's last 4-8 outings and I think there is a lot of value in this matchup.

                    As for the ATL/SF game; similar situation with Folty and I like to take pitchers (only in the first) who are coming off of bullpen roles. And the fact that Peavy has started in the past also gave me some additional confidence.
                    Comment
                    • TechnicalTrader
                      SBR MVP
                      • 05-09-16
                      • 1434

                      #780
                      Can't edit, that should say:

                      However, Finnegan has only givin up one run in the first during his last 5 outings, while Shipley put
                      Comment
                      • white powder
                        SBR Hustler
                        • 06-07-16
                        • 56

                        #781
                        Originally posted by TechnicalTrader
                        Thanks, maybe we can get a little chatroom going during the offseason where we can bounce back ideas and strategies. I'm ok with sharing the strat, just needs to be with the right "type of people"!

                        I'd also be real interested in refining it and creating something that evolves. I've messed around with plenty of trading systems in fx and one thing is for sure, if you don't evolve as a trader and evolve your system you will eventually go broke. The markets, just like sports lines are live, it's almost like they live. The only way to survive is to understand how and where they are moving.

                        In other words, my system just isnt in tune with the "market" and I need to find out why and how to fix it... Or, walk away. Again, my workload is massive right now but I love this game of baseball and finding trends too much to give up that easily. Sure, it helps that today is Friday! LOL
                        tt since u mentioned trading fx here can i ask a favor from you. can u pm me which one of bulkowski's books should i start reading first, which one 2nd, than 3rd and until the last one, im gonna have some time for reading books during autumn and winter time so i plan to learn some more about fx.
                        Comment
                        • Looking4Winners
                          SBR MVP
                          • 12-21-11
                          • 1198

                          #782
                          I can see why the over -- Arizona is averaging 5.2 rpg against lefty starters, and they have the highest OPS against LHP in the league. The DBacks roughed Finnegan up for 6 runs in 5 innings a month ago.

                          Shipley has been pretty solid in the 1st. Only once has he given up a run in his 6 starts.

                          SDQL
                          season = 2016 and starter = Braden Shipley and o:R1 > .05
                          season = 2016 and starter = Brandon Finnegan and o:R1 > .05
                          Last edited by Looking4Winners; 08-26-16, 04:04 PM.
                          Comment
                          • nash13
                            SBR MVP
                            • 01-21-14
                            • 1122

                            #783
                            if you need help with backtesting some ideas i can code you some queries in SDQL. hope this helps.
                            Comment
                            • doubledime
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 04-22-09
                              • 9751

                              #784
                              Good luck tonight TT
                              Comment
                              • HeeluvaGuy
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-15-14
                                • 3449

                                #785
                                Originally posted by Looking4Winners
                                I can see why the over -- Arizona is averaging 5.2 rpg against lefty starters, and they have the highest OPS against LHP in the league. The DBacks roughed Finnegan up for 6 runs in 5 innings a month ago.

                                Shipley has been pretty solid in the 1st. Only once has he given up a run in his 6 starts.

                                SDQL
                                season = 2016 and starter = Braden Shipley and o:R1 > .05
                                season = 2016 and starter = Brandon Finnegan and o:R1 > .05
                                Where have I seen that before? Lol Glad you found it useful.
                                Comment
                                • Looking4Winners
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-21-11
                                  • 1198

                                  #786
                                  Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                  Where have I seen that before? Lol Glad you found it useful.
                                  The guy I got it from gives out very good info ..
                                  Comment
                                  • thekoreanmang
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 03-17-14
                                    • 1422

                                    #787
                                    Originally posted by TechnicalTrader
                                    the reverse jinx ¦ xnij esrever eht

                                    I can understand the over play on CIN/ARZ based strictly off of ERA's and how teams have been playing over the last few matchups. However, Finnegan has only givin up one run in his last 5 outings, while Shipley put up nothing but zeroes in his last 5 starts. I usually only look at SP's last 4-8 outings and I think there is a lot of value in this matchup.

                                    As for the ATL/SF game; similar situation with Folty and I like to take pitchers (only in the first) who are coming off of bullpen roles. And the fact that Peavy has started in the past also gave me some additional confidence.
                                    Makes sense. Tailed you.

                                    What wasn't made clear with Hawk007's picks is that sometimes he bets his picks as single picks and other times they are three games chases. So in his most recent posts he is doing three game chases but in other prior posts there is no indication that it is a chase. Don't really understand the purpose of posting on a forum without being clear about what you're trying to do.
                                    Comment
                                    • TechnicalTrader
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 05-09-16
                                      • 1434

                                      #788
                                      Originally posted by Looking4Winners
                                      I can see why the over -- Arizona is averaging 5.2 rpg against lefty starters, and they have the highest OPS against LHP in the league. The DBacks roughed Finnegan up for 6 runs in 5 innings a month ago.

                                      Shipley has been pretty solid in the 1st. Only once has he given up a run in his 6 starts.

                                      SDQL
                                      season = 2016 and starter = Braden Shipley and o:R1 > .05
                                      season = 2016 and starter = Brandon Finnegan and o:R1 > .05
                                      Great stuff, hadn't really looked that deep. Thank you and please keep this type of infocoming!
                                      Comment
                                      • TechnicalTrader
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 05-09-16
                                        • 1434

                                        #789
                                        Originally posted by nash13
                                        if you need help with backtesting some ideas i can code you some queries in SDQL. hope this helps.
                                        I might get back to you on that. Thanks!!!
                                        Comment
                                        • thekoreanmang
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 03-17-14
                                          • 1422

                                          #790
                                          Wow. Every game so far has featured a first inning run!
                                          Comment
                                          • TechnicalTrader
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 05-09-16
                                            • 1434

                                            #791
                                            Remember what I said here: "Wow, just noticed that only 2 of the 11 games saw runs in the first inning. Now that doesn't happen that often. Expect the laws of averages to take over soon..."

                                            Actually, I'm happy so many of them went over. Leaves some room for a few unders...
                                            Comment
                                            • thekoreanmang
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 03-17-14
                                              • 1422

                                              #792
                                              Great start. Great stuff, TT.
                                              Comment
                                              • TechnicalTrader
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 05-09-16
                                                • 1434

                                                #793
                                                Yeah, we'll see. I sorta put myself in a win-win situation. If we have a bad night, I go on baseball-betting vacation. We win, we make money!

                                                I want at least one of those two final picks!!
                                                Comment
                                                • TechnicalTrader
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 05-09-16
                                                  • 1434

                                                  #794
                                                  We had ourselves a nice day yesterday,after two very, very bad days. All in all we went 9-10 over the last three days, losing $319.92. I guess/hope those two days were only a dry streak and we can put up some good numbers for the last few weeks of the season.

                                                  We are still a good $400.00 below our peak and my goal is to end the season on a high. That amount in 15-20 days should be doable!

                                                  Yesterday: 5:2

                                                  Bankroll day 1: $700.00
                                                  Record: 180-127
                                                  Total Profit: 143.83%
                                                  Bankroll day 66: $1706.86

                                                  Hit rate: 58.63%
                                                  Comment
                                                  • TechnicalTrader
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 05-09-16
                                                    • 1434

                                                    #795
                                                    Originally posted by TechnicalTrader
                                                    the reverse jinx ¦ xnij esrever eht

                                                    I can understand the over play on CIN/ARZ based strictly off of ERA's and how teams have been playing over the last few matchups. However, Finnegan has only givin up one run in his last 5 outings, while Shipley put up nothing but zeroes in his last 5 starts. I usually only look at SP's last 4-8 outings and I think there is a lot of value in this matchup.

                                                    As for the ATL/SF game; similar situation with Folty and I like to take pitchers (only in the first) who are coming off of bullpen roles. And the fact that Peavy has started in the past also gave me some additional confidence.

                                                    HOLY SH!T, I just realized that I capped today's ATL/SF game, rather than yesterday's!! And not one of you caught that??? Not sure if I'll go under today after what SF did in the first yesterday. But still surprised nobody picked that up!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • thekoreanmang
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 03-17-14
                                                      • 1422

                                                      #796
                                                      Originally posted by TechnicalTrader
                                                      HOLY SH!T, I just realized that I capped today's ATL/SF game, rather than yesterday's!! And not one of you caught that??? Not sure if I'll go under today after what SF did in the first yesterday. But still surprised nobody picked that up!
                                                      Damn. That sucks. I didn't even check the pitching matchup for that game. I just trusted you. Haha.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • jlani93
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 05-06-16
                                                        • 107

                                                        #797
                                                        Originally posted by thekoreanmang
                                                        Damn. That sucks. I didn't even check the pitching matchup for that game. I just trusted you. Haha.
                                                        Same here. Haha. Had a really busy day and was on the go sporadically all day so just went with it. However, I am surprised I didn't catch it when I glanced over my list of the pitchers 1st inning stats yesterday. Like he said...I just trusted you. Lol
                                                        Comment
                                                        • TechnicalTrader
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 05-09-16
                                                          • 1434

                                                          #798
                                                          No plays on the early games, my only lean would be the BAL/NYY game but Green doesn't have enough exp to fit in to my model.

                                                          Here we go:

                                                          (I might scratch plays if lineups are irregular)
                                                          Overs:
                                                          PIT/MIL, 4%
                                                          CLE/TEX, 3%
                                                          TB/HOU, 3%
                                                          CIN/ARZ, 4%

                                                          Unders:
                                                          KC/BOS, 3%
                                                          SD/MIA, 3%

                                                          The TB and both unders are the riskiest plays if you ask me, but that's what the system is asking for.

                                                          Let's get it today!!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • TechnicalTrader
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 05-09-16
                                                            • 1434

                                                            #799
                                                            Adding ATL/SF, over at 3% with Suarez starting for SF.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • TechnicalTrader
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 05-09-16
                                                              • 1434

                                                              #800
                                                              Looking good so far. Really, really want the SFG game!

                                                              Overs:
                                                              PIT/MIL, 4% WON
                                                              CLE/TEX, 3% WON
                                                              TB/HOU, 3% LOSS
                                                              CIN/ARZ, 4% WON

                                                              Unders:
                                                              KC/BOS, 3% LOSS
                                                              SD/MIA, 3% WON
                                                              ATL/SF, 3% PENDING
                                                              Comment
                                                              • thekoreanmang
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 03-17-14
                                                                • 1422

                                                                #801
                                                                Seriously. Looking very good. Neither BetOnline nor BookMaker is offering a first inning score prop for ATL/SF. First time I've seen this since betting these.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • doubledime
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 04-22-09
                                                                  • 9751

                                                                  #802
                                                                  Very good night indeed!!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • TechnicalTrader
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 05-09-16
                                                                    • 1434

                                                                    #803
                                                                    Bankroll day 1: $700.00
                                                                    Record: 184-130
                                                                    Total Profit: 150.85%
                                                                    Bankroll day 67: $1756.01

                                                                    Hit rate: 58.60%

                                                                    Damn SF game, should've laid off of it. Would've been a great day. Well, we still gained another 3%. I'll have today's picks up a good hour before the first games start.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • TechnicalTrader
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 05-09-16
                                                                      • 1434

                                                                      #804
                                                                      Originally posted by nash13
                                                                      if you need help with backtesting some ideas i can code you some queries in SDQL. hope this helps.
                                                                      Hi Nash, please check your inbox. Thanks
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • thekoreanmang
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 03-17-14
                                                                        • 1422

                                                                        #805
                                                                        Originally posted by TechnicalTrader
                                                                        Bankroll day 1: $700.00
                                                                        Record: 184-130
                                                                        Total Profit: 150.85%
                                                                        Bankroll day 67: $1756.01

                                                                        Hit rate: 58.60%

                                                                        Damn SF game, should've laid off of it. Would've been a great day. Well, we still gained another 3%. I'll have today's picks up a good hour before the first games start.
                                                                        I guess your capping of ATL/SF from yesterday still held up today. Good job nonetheless.
                                                                        Comment
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