o/u 0.5 1st inning plays

[TechnicalTrader]

Checking in.


What system/systems are you posting?

Good luck.

NOst likely only this one. Again, if anyone is willing to post one of my systems, I'd be willing to provide them with the SDQL queries and explain in detail of how it works. I'll be tracking it on my spreadsheet, just don't have time to be posting the picks every day... And it should have picks every single day... Interested?

[Notorious_Donk]

NOst likely only this one. Again, if anyone is willing to post one of my systems, I'd be willing to provide them with the SDQL queries and explain in detail of how it works. I'll be tracking it on my spreadsheet, just don't have time to be posting the picks every day... And it should have picks every single day... Interested?

Message me

[TechnicalTrader]

Message me

pls change your message settings, I'm getting this:

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[TechnicalTrader]

This is for those action junkies out there...

If you are looking for some early 1st inning action, I'd recommend a simple first inning chase for opening day. I see the following 1st inning run odds for the first three games of the season. The beauty about today is, no games are overlapping, which makes this a rare chance to chase the first inning. i'm seeing great odds on Pinnacle at +237, +200 and +214.

A 1% BR chase would only cost you 5.5% of BR. I'd recommend risking to win 0.5% of BR where if all three bets lose, your total loss would only be 2.75% of BR.

These would be your chase legs:

Bet 1) NYY/TB, bet 0.36% of BR to win 0.5%
if Bet 1 does not win
Bet 2) SF/ARZ, bet 1.23% of BR to win 1.23%
if both Bet 1 and Bet 2 do not win
Bet 3) CHC/STL, bet 2.75% of BR to win 2.75%

Please keep in mind that odds might change, so your %/BR would also change with them. These are the current odds I am seeing.

For those who decide to chase, again do not risk too much here!!!! This for me, is almost gambling... not betting and I am not a gambler!

[TechnicalTrader]

This is for those action junkies out there...

If you are looking for some early 1st inning action, I'd recommend a simple first inning chase for opening day. I see the following 1st inning run odds for the first three games of the season. The beauty about today is, no games are overlapping, which makes this a rare chance to chase the first inning. i'm seeing great odds on Pinnacle at +237, +200 and +214.

A 1% BR chase would only cost you 5.5% of BR. I'd recommend risking to win 0.5% of BR where if all three bets lose, your total loss would only be 2.75% of BR.

These would be your chase legs:

Bet 1) NYY/TB, bet 0.36% of BR to win 0.5%
if Bet 1 does not win
Bet 2) SF/ARZ, bet 1.23% of BR to win 1.23%
if both Bet 1 and Bet 2 do not win
Bet 3) CHC/STL, bet 2.75% of BR to win 2.75%

Please keep in mind that odds might change, so your %/BR would also change with them. These are the current odds I am seeing.

For those who decide to chase, again do not risk too much here!!!! This for me, is almost gambling... not betting and I am not a gambler!

Cashed! Anyone else play it??

[Fabiodog]

Thanks for the winner sir.

[TechnicalTrader]

Thanks for the winner sir.

NP, just out of curiosity; did you bet to win 0.5% BR, 1% or what?

[Fabiodog]

1%,but I have a small bank roll

[TechnicalTrader]

Interesting stats here:

Tanaka is 8-5 SU and 8-5 on the RL after a game in which he lost as a favorite. BUT... He is 1-3 SU and 2-2 on the RL when his K to B ratio was below 1.7. Nothing too special here

Now, this is where things get interesting, his O/U record after "this type" of start is 4-8-1, it is 1-3 when his K to B ratio is under 1.7

His O/U on games in April where he holds an ERA higher than 5.00 is 4-7 and 9-13 through May. I'd say, the play is under next time Tanaka takes the mound.

[pairadux]

TT,

Thanks for that link - I'm going to merge it with my sheet and see how it all plays out.

[Notorious_Donk]

pls change your message settings, I'm getting this:

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Try now

[TechnicalTrader]

Sorry buddy. I lost contact to you and had someone else ask me. Check the other thread for all of the details.

[Notorious_Donk]

Sorry buddy. I lost contact to you and had someone else ask me. Check the other thread for all of the details.

Alright no problem. I have a system for first inning plays myself so was just looking to collaborate and see if we could develop something

[Slanina]

How long do you wait into the sseason before you start playing the first 5 system?

[Capybara]

Interesting stats here:

Tanaka is 8-5 SU and 8-5 on the RL after a game in which he lost as a favorite. BUT... He is 1-3 SU and 2-2 on the RL when his K to B ratio was below 1.7. Nothing too special here

Now, this is where things get interesting, his O/U record after "this type" of start is 4-8-1, it is 1-3 when his K to B ratio is under 1.7

His O/U on games in April where he holds an ERA higher than 5.00 is 4-7 and 9-13 through May. I'd say, the play is under next time Tanaka takes the mound.

Hey, TT, I've read this three times and I'm afraid I'm going to need the Cliff Notes version, the pretend-I'm-your-seven-year-old version. Cuz not following it. By what reasoning are you coming up with that his next game should go under? Thanks!

[TechnicalTrader]

Hey, TT, I've read this three times and I'm afraid I'm going to need the Cliff Notes version, the pretend-I'm-your-seven-year-old version. Cuz not following it. By what reasoning are you coming up with that his next game should go under? Thanks!

Basically Tanaka tightens up after getting shelled... Especially in April. I'm not saying it's a sure shot, but def something to take in mind when capping his next start.

[Capybara]

Basically Tanaka tightens up after getting shelled... Especially in April. I'm not saying it's a sure shot, but def something to take in mind when capping his next start.

Okay, well I did get that that was the gist, was just hoping to understand how you arrived at that with the analysis you included. Wanted to make sure I was understanding the numbers/records you were referencing correctly since not sure I was.

[Capybara]

Also... CAN'T WAIT FOR PLAYS, FEED US, TT!!

[TechnicalTrader]

Okay, well I did get that that was the gist, was just hoping to understand how you arrived at that with the analysis you included. Wanted to make sure I was understanding the numbers/records you were referencing correctly since not sure I was.

How I dug up those numbers? SDQL

I was watching the game and it just seemed like he was really relaxed and not faded while things were falling apart. It seemed as if he was treating the game like a ST game. So I just ran the numbers and that's what history threw back at me.

One more goody for action junkies who enjoy betting live:

(broken down in to variables)
1) Dating back to the beginning of the 2013 season, during April or earlier
2) Home Fav's with lines weaker than -140 (-140 to -105)
3) After playing three innings of shutout ball (both teams not scoring)
4) have gone 15-66

So here's the play:

IF the TOR/BAL games goes in to the fourth inning without a run scored, play TOR straight up or on the RL. Same thing for PHI.

Enjoy. Let's see if we get a play

[Capybara]

TT, stop yammering and give us a First Inning Score YES or NO play...



j/k, appreciate the extra action... but do want one of your signature plays...

[TechnicalTrader]

How I dug up those numbers? SDQL

I was watching the game and it just seemed like he was really relaxed and not faded while things were falling apart. It seemed as if he was treating the game like a ST game. So I just ran the numbers and that's what history threw back at me.

One more goody for action junkies who enjoy betting live:

(broken down in to variables)
1) Dating back to the beginning of the 2013 season, during April or earlier
2) Home Fav's with lines weaker than -140 (-140 to -105)
3) After playing three innings of shutout ball (both teams not scoring)
4) have gone 15-66

So here's the play:

IF the TOR/BAL games goes in to the fourth inning without a run scored, play TOR straight up or on the RL. Same thing for PHI.

Enjoy. Let's see if we get a play

Here we go: Just refined it:

1) Dating back to the beginning of the 2012 season, during April or earlier
2) Home Fav's with lines between -165 and -120
3) After playing three innings of shutout ball (both teams not scoring)
4) have gone 25-75

Today's plays: SEA, TOR, PIT

I am going to jump on these. great numbers!

As for my 1st inning plays, don't expect any before April 20th. the system performs the best now, averaging a 80% hit rate over the last 12 seasons and I am keeping these picks or me. Just joking. LOL

[thekoreanmang]

Interesting stats here:

Tanaka is 8-5 SU and 8-5 on the RL after a game in which he lost as a favorite. BUT... He is 1-3 SU and 2-2 on the RL when his K to B ratio was below 1.7. Nothing too special here

Now, this is where things get interesting, his O/U record after "this type" of start is 4-8-1, it is 1-3 when his K to B ratio is under 1.7

His O/U on games in April where he holds an ERA higher than 5.00 is 4-7 and 9-13 through May. I'd say, the play is under next time Tanaka takes the mound.

Nice angle. I wonder though if this same bounceback mentality could just be applied to all pitchers who get shelled their prior start, especially if they're a proven starter.

[TechnicalTrader]

I doubt it. A "pitcher" isnt just a pitcher, some aces struggle in April, some don't. This is just something I picked up while watching the game.

This is just the beginning, I'm sure the same can be done for player props (another bet Vegas tends to not spend too much time on). FOr example a player like Miggy who has been rock solid over the last... hell decade might react a certain way to a certain past performance. You can't forget these players have such a repetitive ritual in training, recovery, warming up. They work like little machines, well at least the really good ones do. that's what makes them so damn good. Consistency!

[Capybara]

Here we go: Just refined it:

1) Dating back to the beginning of the 2012 season, during April or earlier
2) Home Fav's with lines between -165 and -120
3) After playing three innings of shutout ball (both teams not scoring)
4) have gone 25-75

Today's plays: SEA, TOR, PIT

I am going to jump on these. great numbers!

As for my 1st inning plays, don't expect any before April 20th. the system performs the best now, averaging a 80% hit rate over the last 12 seasons and I am keeping these picks or me. Just joking. LOL

Hey, TT, did any of these make it through the three shutout innings? Hopefully not as they were all losers.

[TechnicalTrader]

Hey, TT, did any of these make it through the three shutout innings? Hopefully not as they were all losers.

Only PIT. Here are today's:

STL postponed
MIN

I added a few filters to my model.

[TechnicalTrader]

Oh and I play the dog if tied after 5. Much better results.

[juveitalia]

Oh and I play the dog if tied after 5. Much better results.

Is that usually RL or ML? Thanks for the input and all your hard work. Excited for the season. BOL!

[TechnicalTrader]

RL.

Again, I am still playing around with different variables so nothing is set in stone...

I think the strategy has legs, just needs to be refined.

[juveitalia]

Checking in. This first inning system still a go this season?

[TechnicalTrader]

Checking in. This first inning system still a go this season?

Yep, the model i use requires at least two weeks of data. Best case scenario we will have some plays around April 20th...

[juveitalia]

Yep, the model i use requires at least two weeks of data. Best case scenario we will have some plays around April 20th...

Got ya. Just wasn't sure. Keep up all the great work! Much appreciated.

[Slanina]

Any word on this?

[TechnicalTrader]

Nothing yet... Still waiting for a play.

[SlickRick1382]

Patiently waiting like ...

[TechnicalTrader]

Soon.... We still have plenty of baseball ahead of us. No need to rush any picks.