TK MLB Plays - 2015

[Tommy Karate]

Between the NBA and now March Madness, baseball is quietly approaching. Crazy considering we have another snow storm coming tomorrow in NY (small one).

I'm still in the middle of doing my team by team research - not sure what im doing for autos yet, but i have a few in mind. Will still be riding with B3 unders pretty heavy. I also want to start looking at FIP more this season for pitchers.

Good luck fellas!

[1Time!]

Can't wait TK!

[mlb]

Good luck - sunday night unders pretty much going to be an auto for me this year.

Let's get it this season.

[ANOoki]

Always been a lurker but now, I'm ready to contribute and be a part of the discussion. Good luck all!

[Tommy Karate]

Good luck - sunday night unders pretty much going to be an auto for me this year.

Let's get it this season.

Always been a lurker but now, I'm ready to contribute and be a part of the discussion. Good luck all!

whats up boys! cant wait...

[BiffTFinancial]

Hey, Tommy, what's happening? How is married life treating you? Well, i hope. Working on my MLB prep right now, looking forward to comparing thoughts on umps. BOL this season.

[Tommy Karate]

Hey, Tommy, what's happening? How is married life treating you? Well, i hope. Working on my MLB prep right now, looking forward to comparing thoughts on umps. BOL this season.

much much different life - haha; but shes great, and our pup keeps us busy.

im actually not doing the umpires this year. i had no success 2 years in a row, so im ditching. me and expresso came up with a bunch of autos - i'll post once we finalize.

i will def still look at umpire data for over/unders on my non auto plays...

[KRIT]

Good luck this year tk. Any futures?

[Tommy Karate]

Good luck this year tk. Any futures?

looking into tonight - nothing crazy like NBA, but maybe some world series plays...

[Tommy Karate]

2015 MLB Autos:

M1 - SP Whip 1.00/1.80 (L30 days) + BP Ranking WHIP - Take Opening Underdog - 3u

M2 - Over 1.80 Whip (30 days) + BP Ranking WHIP 6-30 - 3u

M3 - Under 1.00 Whip (L30 days)+ BP Ranking WHIP 1-25 - 10u per

M4 - RLM Favorites per SI - 2u

M5 - AL over NL; Fade Public - 2u

M6 - Under March/April 30-50 degrees - 2u

M7 - Home Dogs; Fade Public - 2u

M8 - Over Coors; 11 or less (Aug-Oct)

Not every specific detail is here listed - feel free to shoot me a PM if you have any questions. M4-M8 were backtested by my buddy Expresso - these were his findings but i love the logic behind each.

[Tommy Karate]

Sunday 4.5

(3u) Cubs -110
(1u) Under Cubs 7

[thetrinity]

Pounding cubs, never been so happy for a season to start

[EXhoosier10]

Sunday 4.5

(3u) Cubs

fading wainwright? Big play for opening night`

[Tommy Karate]

fading wainwright? Big play for opening night`

more backing lester, but yeah - i dont expect a big season from wainwright.

[KRIT]

looking into tonight - nothing crazy like NBA, but maybe some world series plays...

I never do futures (except when in vegas), but if I did I'd look at Blue Jays, Mariners, and maybe STL.

I like cubbies tonight too.

[red12sox]

Sunday 4.5

(3u) Cubs -110
(1u) Under Cubs 7

On both of these as well. Oh and good call with the hawks destroying the nets last night haha

[matt711]

Hello TK.....Happy Easter..good luck this season...

[Tommy Karate]

Hello TK.....Happy Easter..good luck this season...

Same to you Matt

[Tommy Karate]

Monday 4.6

(1u) Under Indians 7.5

[Tommy Karate]

(1u) DBacks +125

[Tommy Karate]

Tue 4.7

(1u) Rockies +115
(1u) Under Marlins 7
(1u) Over Giants 8.5

[BiffTFinancial]

Tommy, like your M6 auto a lot, have seen some good numbers on it (for whatever it's worth, in my notes i have it as stronger in daytime than at night). Anyway, both Twins/Tigers (42 degrees) and Cards/Cubs (48 degrees) both expected to be cold at first pitch tomorrow. BOL!

[BiffTFinancial]

much much different life - haha; but shes great, and our pup keeps us busy.

im actually not doing the umpires this year. i had no success 2 years in a row, so im ditching. me and expresso came up with a bunch of autos - i'll post once we finalize.

i will def still look at umpire data for over/unders on my non auto plays...

i don't autoplay umps. i have ump factors (like park factors and weather factors) that i use as an overlay on my game total prediction in my model. i alter my ump factors on a regular basis throughout the season. these guys get graded by MLB and some will change their zones over time.

as i recall, it didn't help you that you had a couple of guys as autoplays in recent years that either were injured (McClelland - RIP, you beautiful over machine; Holbrook - returns tomorrow in Cincy) or even worse changed their stripes (Guccione, Danley, Wegner --- all from over to under umps). that was just plain bad luck in the autoplay realm.

more importantly than all that, glad to hear that life is good!

[hey buddy]

i don't autoplay umps. i have ump factors (like park factors and weather factors) that i use as an overlay on my game total prediction in my model. i alter my ump factors on a regular basis throughout the season. these guys get graded by MLB and some will change their zones over time.

as i recall, it didn't help you that you had a couple of guys as autoplays in recent years that either were injured (McClelland - RIP, you beautiful over machine; Holbrook - returns tomorrow in Cincy) or even worse changed their stripes (Guccione, Danley, Wegner --- all from over to under umps). that was just plain bad luck in the autoplay realm.

more importantly than all that, glad to hear that life is good!

Miller had a bad year as far as unders go but if you look at his strike and walk % it appears it was bad luck. I am going to ride unders with him again this year in hopes of the luck going the other way. Luckily I missed him last night in Oakland. I will also be on Holbrook and Reynolds (both go tomorrow fyi) for overs.

BOL this year. I will be checking in when I can. Thanks for posting

[BiffTFinancial]

Miller had a bad year as far as unders go but if you look at his strike and walk % it appears it was bad luck. I am going to ride unders with him again this year in hopes of the luck going the other way. Luckily I missed him last night in Oakland. I will also be on Holbrook and Reynolds (both go tomorrow fyi) for overs.

BOL this year. I will be checking in when I can. Thanks for posting

agree, Miller still an under guy in my book. also agree on Reynolds. BOL to you too!

[Exxpresso]

Twins @ Tigers M 6
Cards @ Cubs M 6

[meader99]

GL this season.

[Louisvillekid1]

Get em D

[EXhoosier10]

Miller had a bad year as far as unders go but if you look at his strike and walk % it appears it was bad luck. I am going to ride unders with him again this year in hopes of the luck going the other way. Luckily I missed him last night in Oakland. I will also be on Holbrook and Reynolds (both go tomorrow fyi) for overs.

BOL this year. I will be checking in when I can. Thanks for posting

Vegas takes into account the umpires when setting lines. If you autobet every game, you're bound for failure. It's like saying you're going to bet a team because of an underrated hitter/fielder. They affect a tiny part of the final outcome of the game, they don't change the entire landscape

[Exxpresso]

Rays M 4

Phillies M 7

[Tommy Karate]

Twins @ Tigers M 6
Cards @ Cubs M 6

Rays M 4

Phillies M 7

busy today and missed these.....you didnt message me on facebook messenger!!!

[Tommy Karate]

Wed 4.8

(1u) Over Giants 8.5
(1u) Padres +110
(1u) Angels +120

[hey buddy]

Vegas takes into account the umpires when setting lines. If you autobet every game, you're bound for failure. It's like saying you're going to bet a team because of an underrated hitter/fielder. They affect a tiny part of the final outcome of the game, they don't change the entire landscape

Yeah, there are certain situations, matchups, ballparks, etc. that I avoid.

[Tommy Karate]

Thur 4.9

(2u) Phillies +120 (M7)

[Tommy Karate]

Fri 4.10

(2u) Indians -120 (M4)