150 Day Analysis of College Football and Basketball and NFL and NBA

[usma1992]

If you have followed me before, I have been working on my program for about 15 years... Each Year I refine it and it gets better. So let's kick off the season.

I have four rules for football

1. I don't take OT into account. Some will argue that this isn't fair. I can't model for additional time. What ever the score dictates in regular time is what I use for wins losses.
2. College backup QBs are a no go and I toss the games out. It would help if you see a game that my system picks and I didn't catch that the QB got hurt. Let me know.
3. I toss Over bets if it is Windy or raining.
4. I don't bet until Week 4 for NFL and College Football.

With that being said... I ran my program for College and NFL anyway just for fun.

College Week 1

	NCAAF	2026Week1				STARTS WEEK 4				MACKTHETEACH.COM
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	SMU	#VALUE!	Florida St	#####		######	2.5	55		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
7:30 PM	Rutgers	26	Boston College	34		60	-3.5	54.5		HOME MINUS*
8:00 PM	Missouri	#VALUE!	Kansas	#####		######	6.5	49.5		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
12:00 PM	Oregon	37	Oklahoma St	26		63	21.5	57.5		HOME PLUS*
12:00 PM	Oklahoma	14	Michigan	0		14	6	43.5			UNDER
12:00 PM	App State	#VALUE!	E Carolina	#####		######	-8	56		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
12:00 PM	Wake Forest	#VALUE!	Purdue	#####		######	4	50.5		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
12:00 PM	Old Dominion	#VALUE!	Virginia Tech	#####		######	-17.5	51		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
12:00 PM	Penn St	#VALUE!	Temple	#####		######	23	50		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
12:00 PM	Arizona St	#VALUE!	Texas A&M	#####		######	-14.5	52		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
12:00 PM	S Florida	#VALUE!	Army	#####		######	-3.5	48		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
12:00 PM	Washington St	#VALUE!	Kansas St	#####		######	-17.5	50.5		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
12:45 PM	W Kentucky	#VALUE!	Georgia	#####		######	-40	54.5		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
3:30 PM	Utah St	#VALUE!	Washington	#####		######	-26.5	56		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
3:30 PM	Arizona	#VALUE!	BYU	#####		######	-7.5	50.5		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
3:30 PM	UCF	#VALUE!	Pittsburgh	#####		######	-7.5	57.5		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
3:30 PM	California	#VALUE!	Syracuse	#####		######	-3	56.5		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
3:30 PM	Maryland	#VALUE!	UConn	#####		######	11.5	53.5		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
3:30 PM	UTEP	14	Texas St	27		41	-1	64.5			UNDER*
3:30 PM	Duke	28	Illinois	7		35	-6.5	53.5
3:30 PM	E Michigan	13	Michigan St	40		53	-17	50.5
3:30 PM	UL Monroe	18	UAB	52		70	-11.5	55.5
3:30 PM	Mississippi St	#VALUE!	Minnesota	#####		######	1.5	55.5		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
3:30 PM	Alabama	#VALUE!	Kentucky	#####		######	10	48.5		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
3:30 PM	Rice	#VALUE!	Notre Dame	#####		######	-44.5	55		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
3:45 PM	UNLV	33	N Texas	17		50	4.5	57
4:15 PM	Delaware	#VALUE!	Vanderbilt	#####		######	-20.5	54		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
6:00 PM	Memphis	28	Boise St	24		52	-7.5	55.5		AWAY PLUS*
6:00 PM	Buffalo	#VALUE!	Florida Intl	#####		######	-10.5	47.5		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
6:00 PM	Jacksonville St	16	Ohio	23		39	-3	51.5		HOME MINUS*	UNDER*
7:00 PM	S Alabama	#VALUE!	Tulane	#####		######	-9.5	50.5		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
7:00 PM	Tulsa	18	Sam Houston	22		40	13.5	51.5		HOME PLUS	UNDER
7:00 PM	Bowling Green	#VALUE!	Nebraska	#####		######	-30	51.5		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
7:00 PM	Tennessee	#VALUE!	Georgia Tech	#####		######	12.5	55		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
7:00 PM	Middle Tenn	#VALUE!	Marshall	#####		######	-14	56.5		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
7:00 PM	Georgia St	#VALUE!	Kennesaw St	#####		######	-8	52		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
7:15 PM	San Diego St	#VALUE!	UCLA	#####		######	-11	53.5		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
7:30 PM	Georgia So	#VALUE!	Clemson	#####		######	-20.5	55		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
7:30 PM	Navy	#VALUE!	Florida Atlantic	#####		######	5.5	59.5		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
7:30 PM	Iowa St	#VALUE!	Iowa	#####		######	-15	41		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
7:30 PM	Southern Miss	#VALUE!	Auburn	#####		######	-31.5	53		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
7:30 PM	Louisiana Tech	#VALUE!	LSU	#####		######	-35	55.5		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
7:30 PM	Ohio St	40	Texas	26		66	-1	48.5		AWAY PLUS*
7:30 PM	Texas Tech	#VALUE!	Oregon St	#####		######	26.5	51		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
7:45 PM	Charlotte	#VALUE!	Mississippi	#####		######	-47.5	61.5		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
10:00 PM	North Dakota State	#VALUE!	Air Force	#####		######	#######	######		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
10:15 PM	Arkansas	#VALUE!	Utah	#####		######	-12.5	57		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
10:30 PM	Sacramento State	25	Fresno St	2		27	-18	45		AWAY PLUS*
11:00 PM	UL Monroe	0	USC	59		59	-31.5	60.5
12:00 AM	New Mexico St	25	Hawai'i	38		63	-9.5	50.5

I first run projected numbers than I have algorithms that choose the bets. There are a lot of #VALUE! because one or more of the teams in the game have not an FBS team. Statistics against FCS teams don't count. Again, I don't bet until week 4

MACKTHETEACH

[usma1992]

NFL WEEK 1... I can't emphasize enough. I DON'T BET UNTIL WEEK 4. Week 1 is based on last years stats. I am posting just to see how it does.

	NFL	2026Week1				O/U& SPREADS				No Bets Until Week 3 or 4
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		PROJ TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:20 PM	NEWENGLAND	21	SEATTLE	23		44	-3.5	44.5
8:35 PM	SANFRANCISCO	23	LARAMS	28		51	-4	48.5
1:00 PM	CLEVELAND	15	JACKSONVILLE	25		40	-7	40.5
1:00 PM	TAMPABAY	20	CINCINNATI	24		44	-3.5	51.5
1:00 PM	BALTIMORE	19	INDIANAPOLIS	23		42	3	48		Home Plus 3*
1:00 PM	ATLANTA	20	PITTSBURGH	19		39	-3	42
1:00 PM	BUFFALO	26	HOUSTON	23		49	1	44.5
1:00 PM	CHICAGO	27	CAROLINA	17		44	2.5	47
1:00 PM	NYJETS	16	TENNESSEE	16		32	-2.5	39.5			Under 3*
1:00 PM	NEWORLEANS	18	DETROIT	26		44	-7	49.5
4:05 PM	ARIZONA	20	LACHARGERS	22		42	-10	46.5		Away Plus 5*
4:25 PM	MIAMI	17	LASVEGAS	13		30	-4	40.5
4:25 PM	WASHINGTON	18	PHILADELPHIA	20		38	-4	47
4:25 PM	GREENBAY	20	MINNESOTA	16		36	-1.5	45
8:20 PM	DALLAS	28	NYGIANTS	20		48	3	48.5		Away Minus 5*
8:15 PM	DENVER	23	KANSASCITY	20		43	-2.5	43

MACKTHETEACH

[usma1992]

7-3-1 in College... Again... I don't count this until Week 4 but still fun to track... I took Chargers in my survivor league.

MACKTHETEACH

[usma1992]

NCAAF WEEK 2 ... STARTS WEEK 4

	NCAAF	2026Week2				STARTS WEEK 4				MACKTHETEACH.COM
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	Syracuse	28	Pittsburgh	34		62	-10.5	51
7:30 PM	Miami	42	Wake Forest	19		61	21.5	56.5
8:00 PM	Houston	35	Texas Tech	31		66	-8	54		AWAY PLUS*
11:30 AM	Coastal Car	26	Delaware	27		53	-5.5	57.5		AWAY PLUS
12:00 PM	Arizona St	32	Kansas	16		48	5	52.5
12:00 PM	Buffalo	4	Penn St	49		53	-39	47.5
12:00 PM	Kent St	0	Ohio St	64		64	-52.5	58.5
12:00 PM	North Carolina	17	Clemson	4		21	-3	44.5		AWAY PLUS*
12:00 PM	Akron	24	Minnesota	40		64	-24.5	50
12:00 PM	Tulane	0	Kansas St	44		44	-20	50.5
12:00 PM	Georgia	48	Arkansas	15		63	25.5	54
12:00 PM	Bowling Green	0	Iowa St	22		22	-24	45.5
12:00 PM	N Texas	36	Texas St	31		67	-3	63.5		AWAY PLUS
12:30 PM	E Michigan	15	Wisconsin	22		37	-24	47			UNDER
12:45 PM	NC State	4	Vanderbilt	31		35	-3.5	52.5			UNDER*
7:00 PM	Troy	6	Missouri	40		46	-26.5	50.5
1:00 PM	Wyoming	10	C Michigan	7		17	-1.5	39.5
3:00 PM	Temple	11	Toledo	12		23	-6	50.5			UNDER
3:30 PM	SMU	42	Louisville	30		72	-1	60.5		AWAY PLUS*
3:30 PM	Miami OH	11	Cincinnati	39		50	-15.5	52
3:30 PM	UTEP	0	Michigan	19		19	-35	48.5
3:30 PM	USC	51	Rutgers	8		59	24	60
3:30 PM	Florida St	8	Alabama	41		49	-20.5	49
3:30 PM	Kentucky	0	Texas A&M	42		42	-17	49.5
3:30 PM	Utah St	0	Utah	32		32	-28	56.5
4:00 PM	Ball St	5	Liberty	33		38	-13.5	49.5
4:00 PM	Stanford	18	Duke	32		50	-9.5	51
4:00 PM	W Kentucky	10	Indiana	31		41	-44.5	61.5
4:00 PM	Louisiana Tech	3	Baylor	50		53	-18	53			UNDER*
4:15 PM	Mississippi St	32	South Carolina	37		69	-3.5	58.5
6:00 PM	E Carolina	17	Old Dominion	19		36	-2.5	49			UNDER*
6:00 PM	Florida Intl	45	Florida Atlantic	32		77	-6.5	62		AWAY PLUS*
6:00 PM	Charlotte	12	App State	41		53	-18.5	51.5
6:30 PM	Marshall	20	Missouri St	5		25	3	52
7:00 PM	Georgia St	18	UCF	8		26	-19	53			UNDER
7:00 PM	Georgia So	22	Jacksonville St	14		36	-3.5	52			UNDER
7:00 PM	Nevada	36	Middle Tenn	24		60	4	52
7:00 PM	Ohio	22	S Alabama	43		65	-3.5	52
7:00 PM	W Michigan	22	Rice	12		34	9.5	44.5
7:00 PM	Florida	33	Auburn	41		74	2.5	52
7:00 PM	UConn	18	Southern Miss	18		36	3	54.5			UNDER
7:30 PM	West Virginia	24	Virginia	29		53	-10	53.5
7:30 PM	Virginia Tech	33	Maryland	37		70	3	53.5
7:30 PM	Colorado	#VALUE!	Northwestern	#####		######	-4	49		#VALUE!	#VALUE!
7:30 PM	New Mexico	13	Oklahoma	14		27	-22	47
7:30 PM	BYU	12	Colorado St	18		30	17.5	52.5
7:30 PM	LSU	53	Mississippi	21		74	3	58		AWAY MINUS *
7:30 PM	Michigan St	15	Notre Dame	26		41	-29.5	52
7:45 PM	Kennesaw St	10	Tennessee	48		58	-35.5	60.5
8:00 PM	Arkansas St	9	TCU	32		41	-20.5	57			UNDER
8:00 PM	UTSA	21	Texas	51		72	-30	58.5
8:00 PM	UAB	36	Louisiana	16		52	-8	56.5
10:00 PM	J Madison	9	San Diego St	1		10	-2	46.5
10:30 PM	N Illinois	1	Arizona	35		36	-34	49.5
10:30 PM	North Dakota State	40	Sacramento State	5		45	28	52.5
11:00 PM	Fresno St	18	San Jose St	24		42	7	50.5		HOME PLUS*	UNDER
11:00 PM	Purdue	31	UCLA	35		66	-14.5	53.5

[Tanko]

USMA, I've not followed your plays. It "officially" kicks off in week 4.
How has it done over the years? Any historical data.

BTW Thanks for the information.

[usma1992]

Well.... follow along... I had to toss several years out because of corrupted data. It is amazing how easy that can happen. Then of course NCAAF adds additional teams each year. I have only made real strides the last 4 years. NFL will always be hard because of parity. NBA did surprising well but I believe College Basketball will be my bellwhether program. Yes, it kicks off Week 4. Each year I upgrade my algorithms so I am not trying to avoid the question but with the current algorithms we are north of 60% back tested. All my data is pure and my algorithms have to work on past and present data. I dislike my NFL picks this week but it is based on one game.

NFL Week 2 Games...

	NFL	2026Week2				O/U& SPREADS				No Bets Until Week 3 or 4
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		PROJ TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:15 PM	DETROIT	29	BUFFALO	30		59	-5	54
1:00 PM	GREENBAY	24	NYJETS	22		46	3.5	44.5
1:00 PM	MINNESOTA	20	CHICAGO	30		50	-5.5	48
1:00 PM	PITTSBURGH	20	NEWENGLAND	16		36	-5.5	41.5
1:00 PM	CAROLINA	32	ATLANTA	13		45	2	43.5
1:00 PM	CLEVELAND	9	TAMPABAY	22		31	-9	41.5
1:00 PM	CINCINNATI	28	HOUSTON	30		58	-2.5	46.5
1:00 PM	NEWORLEANS	32	BALTIMORE	34		66	-8.5	47
1:00 PM	PHILADELPHIA	20	TENNESSEE	10		30	7	39
4:05 PM	LASVEGAS	20	LACHARGERS	12		32	-7	43.5
4:05 PM	JACKSONVILLE	26	DENVER	10		36	-2.5	45
4:25 PM	WASHINGTON	23	DALLAS	17		40	-4	50
4:25 PM	SEATTLE	14	ARIZONA	26		40	4	41.5		Home Plus 5*
4:25 PM	MIAMI	14	SANFRANCISCO	28		42	-13.5	45.5
8:20 PM	INDIANAPOLIS	18	KANSASCITY	27		45	-6.5	47
8:15 PM	NYGIANTS	27	LARAMS	11		38	-7	48		Away Plus 5*

[usma1992]

Tanko,

This is my best program yet... so we will see. It will be helpful in college if you could point out weather discrepancies and back up QBs that I will probably miss. I have a moderate following in Virginia Beach. I am only in one survivor league. I don't bother with fantasy. But I did change my survivor pick from the Chargers over Arizona to the Steelers based on my model.

Thank God I did. 1/3rd of the entries took the Chargers. Though my system didn't pick Arizona to win... it did pick them to cover.

For most, since I give projected numbers... one of the best attributes of my system helps steer people away from games they think are automatic locks.

MacktheTeach

P.S. My degree is in EE from a well known college. I am asking for help for my program get better. I couldn't be more excited for the season. Enjoy!!!

[brock]

Good to see you back this year. Good to follow week by week.

[redrum448]

Let's goooooo

[usma1992]

I notice heading into Week 2 that my system seems heavily weighted towards Unders and Away games... The algorithms I have set up are far more balanced over the course of the season. I will be interested to see week 3 games to see if it balances out.

I re-ran week 1 games after the fact and it was almost perfect not just in projections but in the types of bets to place. It was after the fact so I know I had the answers to the test but this system still needs to identify the games and types of bets to be placed.

1-0 College based on last night... I am itching to bet and State Taxes just sent me a refund lol. They miscalculated. But I am holding off until Week 4.

MACKTHETEACH

P.S. I was a stock broker for Morgan Stanley for 5-6 years. If your interested in a stock pick... CGEH which changed symbols to CEPL will be the best pick I ever make.

[usma1992]

Interesting Weekend... the college system got crushed... which is to be expected as numbers normalize. I reran it after the fact and though it was around 70% it still mispicked some games.

The coming week... things should start to tighten up... I look forward to betting. However, I have learned my lesson... I put 4% of my bankroll on a bet... no more... no less. In addition, I wait until Week 4.

MACKTHETEACH

[usma1992]

NCAAF WEEK 3

	NCAAF	2026Week3				STARTS WEEK 4				MACKTHETEACH.COM
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	Liberty	26	Coastal Car	14		40	2	52			UNDER*
4:00 PM	Army	31	Temple	21		52	3	48.5
7:00 PM	Navy	20	UAB	24		44	7	52			UNDER
8:00 PM	Northwestern	23	Indiana	22		45	-21	49.5
10:30 PM	Clemson	23	California	31		54	-1	50.5
1:30 PM	UCLA	31	Maryland	32		63	2	58.5
6:30 PM	Louisiana	26	Charlotte	12		38	10	49.5
5:00 PM	Nebraska	34	Michigan St	11		45	5.5	48.5
3:30 PM	UConn	27	Miami OH	22		49	-4.5	51
7:30 PM	App State	31	NC State	21		52	-13.5	55.5
12:00 PM	Wake Forest	34	Louisville	35		69	-13	58		AWAY PLUS*	OVER
5:00 PM	S Florida	23	Bowling Green	0		23	17	49.5			UNDER
12:00 PM	Texas	33	Tennessee	21		54	3.5	56
3:30 PM	Iowa	17	Michigan	5		22	-4.5	38
12:00 PM	UNLV	40	Akron	14		54	12.5	50.5
12:45 PM	S Alabama	27	Kentucky	24		51	-20.5	55
6:00 PM	J Madison	20	Old Dominion	6		26	5.5	47			UNDER
12:00 PM	San Diego St	22	Toledo	26		48	-2.5	48.5
6:00 PM	Delaware	13	Virginia	32		45	-19.5	52.5
3:30 PM	Mississippi	35	Florida	40		75	-3.5	60.5
12:00 PM	Virginia Tech	44	Boston College	21		65	14.5	52.5
7:00 PM	Kansas St	36	Cincinnati	17		53	6.5	54
12:00 PM	Boise St	27	W Michigan	19		46	7	48.5
3:30 PM	TCU	25	UCF	6		31	3	50		AWAY MINUS *
2:00 PM	N Illinois	12	Georgia St	54		66	-10	55.5
3:30 PM	Oklahoma	5	Georgia	22		27	-14	43.5
12:00 PM	Illinois	3	Ohio St	46		49	-27	53
5:00 PM	Wisconsin	10	Penn St	32		42	-10	45.5
2:00 PM	Notre Dame	46	Purdue	15		61	27	57.5
12:00 PM	Ball St	20	Kent St	17		37	-3	49.5
7:00 PM	Oklahoma St	42	West Virginia	34		76	-1.5	59.5		AWAY PLUS*
12:00 PM	Houston	41	Georgia So	22		63	17	55
10:30 PM	Air Force	29	Nevada	22		51	4.5	49
11:00 PM	Minnesota	12	Washington	28		40	-9	45.5
3:00 PM	Hawai'i	33	Wyoming	13		46	3	45.5		AWAY MINUS *
9:00 PM	UMass	32	Sacramento State	16		48	5	48.5
7:45 PM	Missouri	14	Mississippi St	34		48	-6.5	58.5
9:00 PM	Missouri St	4	SMU	60		64	-34	58.5
12:00 PM	Colorado	16	Baylor	40		56	-10.5	54.5
8:00 PM	Tulsa	31	Arkansas	23		54	-6.5	54
7:30 PM	Texas A&M	27	LSU	40		67	-9.5	52.5
7:00 PM	Southern Miss	19	Tulane	26		45	-17.5	52.5
12:00 PM	Sam Houston	20	Texas Tech	36		56	-35	55		AWAY PLUS*
4:15 PM	Vanderbilt	22	Auburn	43		65	-9.5	55			OVER*
12:00 PM	Colorado St	25	UTSA	22		47	-13	58
7:00 PM	South Carolina	34	Alabama	35		69	-13.5	55		AWAY PLUS*
8:00 PM	Florida Atlantic	37	Louisiana	23		60	13	57.5
3:30 PM	Utah	23	Iowa St	8		31	7.5	49
7:30 PM	Oregon	21	USC	40		61	3	62
3:30 PM	New Mexico	24	New Mexico St	8		32	12	49			UNDER
6:30 PM	C Michigan	17	Miami	43		60	-41.5	52.5
7:00 PM	Kennesaw St	23	Arkansas St	22		45	-4	54
7:00 PM	Middle Tenn	23	Jacksonville St	12		35	-8	51.5			UNDER
7:30 PM	Troy	23	Utah St	5		28	-2.5	49
7:30 PM	Arizona	31	Washington St	2		33	10.5	47.5			UNDER
9:00 PM	Oregon St	41	UTEP	6		47	11	54
10:00 PM	Rice	16	Fresno St	26		42	-14.5	44
10:30 PM	Georgia Tech	27	Stanford	22		49	3.5	48

THIS WEEK SHOULD NORMALIZE A LITTLE

MACKTHETEACH

[usma1992]

Any thoughts on the picks... I like the spread out... good mix of games...

MacktheTeach

[redrum448]

Northwestern-indiana game looks interesting as does the Bama game.

I see your program still loves unders as in past years!

[usma1992]

	NFL	2026Week3				O/U& SPREADS				No Bets Until Week 3 or 4
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		PROJ TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:15 PM	ATLANTA	13	GREENBAY	21		34	-6.5	45
1:00 PM	SEATTLE	18	WASHINGTON	20		38	7	40.5		Home Plus 5*
1:00 PM	CINCINNATI	22	PITTSBURGH	16		38	3	42
1:00 PM	NYJETS	18	DETROIT	28		46	-6.5	48
1:00 PM	TENNESSEE	12	NYGIANTS	17		29	-3	40.5			Under 3*
1:00 PM	NEWENGLAND	12	JACKSONVILLE	17		29	-3	45.5			Under 5*
1:00 PM	KANSASCITY	33	MIAMI	9		42	11.5	45.5
1:00 PM	HOUSTON	29	INDIANAPOLIS	20		49	3	43.5		Away Minus 5*
1:00 PM	CAROLINA	31	CLEVELAND	15		46	2.5	42.5
1:00 PM	LACHARGERS	11	BUFFALO	29		40	-7	50.5		Home Minus 3*
4:05 PM	MINNESOTA	15	TAMPABAY	20		35	1.5	42		Home Plus 3*
4:05 PM	ARIZONA	16	SANFRANCISCO	26		42	-9	47.5
4:25 PM	LASVEGAS	21	NEWORLEANS	28		49	-3	44
4:25 PM	BALTIMORE	27	DALLAS	21		48	3	52.5
8:20 PM	LARAMS	19	DENVER	12		31	2.5	45.5			Under 5*
8:15 PM	PHILADELPHIA	22	CHICAGO	28		50	4.5	42		Home Plus 5*

NFL WEEK 3... ONE MORE WEEK OF COURSE... THREE STARTING QBS ARE OUT... HOW CAN YOU NOT TAKE TENN UNDER

[usma1992]

Redrum... I spend the summer trying to balance everything out... does it sill pick unders... I guess but the current algorithms were pretty balanced... to include far more overs... I don't know what to tell you yet...

MackTheTeach

[usma1992]

I asked AI for Top Picks

Matchup	Market Spread	Total	Recommended Play
#17 Iowa @ #18 Michigan	Michigan -5.5	39.5	UNDER 39.5
Hawaii @ Wyoming	Wyoming -3.5	44.5	Wyoming -3.5
TCU @ UCF	TCU -3.5	48.5	TCU -3.5
#1 Texas @ #14 Tennessee	Texas -5.5	55.5	Tennessee +5.5

We agree on TCU... we disagree on Hawaii game... My numbers agree with IOWA game but system said no pick. My numbers disagree with Texas game but system said no pick.

MackTheTeach

[usma1992]

AI
Week 4 Model Portfolio Summary

Matchup	Market Spread	Total	Recommended Model Play	Primary Efficiency Driver
#1 Texas @ #14 Tennessee	Texas -5.5	55.5	Tennessee +5.5	Neyland Atmosphere & Front-Seven Stuff Rate
#17 Iowa @ #18 Michigan	Michigan -4.5	37.5	UNDER 37.5	Heavy Run-Frequency & Slow Pace
Hawaii @ Wyoming	Wyoming -3.5	44.5	Wyoming -3.5	Altitude (7,200 ft) & Offensive Line Yards
Oklahoma @ #2 Georgia	Georgia -13.5	51.5	Georgia -13.5	Pass Rush vs. OL Pressure Allowed
TCU @ UCF	TCU -3.5	49.5	TCU -3.5	3rd Down Passing Success Rate
#15 Utah @ Iowa State	Utah -7.5	49.5	Utah -7.5	Red-Zone Points Per Opportunity
#4 Ole Miss @ #21 Florida	Ole Miss -6.5	58.5	Ole Miss -6.5	Seconds-Per-Snap Tempo vs. Defensive Depth
Clemson @ Cal	Cal +1.5	50.5	Cal +1.5	Cross-Country Travel Spot & Turnover Havoc
Wisconsin @ #13 Penn State	Penn State -9.5	45.5	Penn State -9.5	Defensive Stuff Rate & Home Crowd Advantage
Colorado @ Baylor	Baylor -10.5	54.5	Baylor -10.5	Trench Matchup & Time of Possession Control

Not Sure what to think
Trying to compare my games to AI...

MackTheTeach

[redrum448]

Which AI

[usma1992]

Gemini... should I use a different one...

[Optional]

Gemini... should I use a different one...

I often use Gemini, Claude and ChatGPT and ask the same thing to compare output.

But I still havent come up with a one is always better than the others. I do think Claude is the most reliable to not give me misinformation too often. Gemini is so much faster than the other two I am sus about how careful it is.

[usma1992]

Several games.... I am keeping my eye on...

#1 TCU -3.5 both AI and my system predicts this game
#2 Hawaii... I have Hawaii ... AI has Wyoming
#3 Michigan Under 38 ... my predictive score is way under yet I have two filters that kick the game out... because of certain attributes... AI has under
#4 Utah -7.5 again my predictive scores agree with AI... but I have the game filtered out...
#5 Penn State -9.5...again my predictive scores agree with AI... but I have the game filtered out...
#6 Baylor -10.5... again my predictive scores agree with AI... but I have the game filtered out...

One more week for me to bet... I am curious how much my filters based on matchups help or hinder... I am comfortable with my system but maybe AI can help me fine tune certain attributes.

MackTheTeach

[usma1992]

NCAAF 1-0 to start the weekend... this is the week we should start to see normalization. Just glad I didn't pick Green Bay in survivor league.

80% of my survivor league is already knocked out.

MackTheTeach

[usma1992]

Redrum...

Need a little love this morning... U pointed out that the Indiana NW game looked interesting. Apparently, it was. My system said no bet so maybe I can find something in their to add that game for future. I had NW scoring 23 which they scored exactly 23. I had Indiana at 22 ... so I was exactly 1 TD off since they scored 29. I like how things are setting up.

This was the week I should start to see the tide turn and it is.

AI took California... my system said no bet. AI lost.

2-0 so far... but can you give me a little love on the Navy game.

My system said Navy 20- UAB 24... at what was the final score.... Navy 20- UAB 24...

MACKTHETEACH

[usma1992]

Nice pick by system... perfect actually...

My system said Navy 20- UAB 24... at what was the final score.... Navy 20- UAB 24...

Thats hard to do... I will probably go 0-9 today...

MACKTHETEACH

[redrum448]

Wake pick looking good

[usma1992]

They scored 3 points in the 4th quarter and didn't cover the over. Crazy...

MackTheTeach

[usma1992]

NFL looks dialed in... 4-1 today I think...

College... here we go...

MackTheTeach

[usma1992]

NCAAF WEEK 4... Time to bet

	NCAAF	2026Week4				STARTS WEEK 4				MACKTHETEACH.COM
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:00 PM	W Kentucky	27	New Mexico St	35		62	-1	53			OVER*
9:00 PM	N Texas	35	Tulsa	24		59	-1.5	58		AWAY PLUS*
7:00 PM	Pittsburgh	27	Virginia Tech	31		58	-4	52
7:00 PM	Liberty	31	Delaware	7		38	7	50.5
8:00 PM	Penn St	29	Northwestern	12		41	3	47
12:00 PM	Syracuse	37	UConn	15		52	5	51.5
2:00 PM	Toledo	44	Ball St	6		50	20	51
7:30 PM	Temple	11	S Florida	15		26	-5.5	51.5
3:30 PM	Bowling Green	11	Miami OH	27		38	-15	47
3:30 PM	Virginia	41	Florida St	18		59	2.5	51		AWAY MINUS *
12:00 PM	Vanderbilt	10	Georgia	32		42	-25	52.5
3:30 PM	Ohio	31	Kent St	15		46	4.5	50.5
4:15 PM	Kentucky	24	South Carolina	41		65	-3	53.5			OVER*
3:30 PM	E Michigan	9	UMass	26		35	-5.5	48.5
12:00 PM	Miami	40	Clemson	7		47	17	49
12:00 PM	Stanford	22	Wake Forest	39		61	-13	54.5			OVER*
3:30 PM	Louisville	36	NC State	32		68	6.5	60.5
3:30 PM	Memphis	33	Charlotte	13		46	20	54
1:00 PM	W Michigan	29	Buffalo	8		37	15	48.5
4:00 PM	Maryland	13	Nebraska	46		59	-14	52.5
3:30 PM	Old Dominion	15	Georgia St	34		49	1	50.5
7:00 PM	Georgia So	29	Coastal Car	21		50	2	54
3:45 PM	Marshall	6	J Madison	38		44	-17	54.5
12:00 PM	Notre Dame	30	North Carolina	2		32	21.5	48			UNDER
3:30 PM	Auburn	23	Tennessee	30		53	-7.5	53.5
12:00 PM	Navy	34	Air Force	31		65	-2	48.5
12:00 PM	UCF	12	Houston	35		47	-10.5	50.5
12:00 PM	Michigan	17	Minnesota	10		27	5.5	43			UNDER
12:00 PM	Middle Tenn	16	Kansas	30		46	-20	50
7:00 PM	UTSA	34	Rice	31		65	11	54.5
3:30 PM	Akron	17	C Michigan	29		46	-6	47.5		HOME MINUS
12:30 PM	Michigan St	10	Wisconsin	22		32	-10.5	44.5			UNDER
4:15 PM	Purdue	30	Illinois	37		67	-9.5	60		AWAY PLUS
7:00 PM	Louisiana	26	S Alabama	31		57	-14.5	56.5
12:00 PM	Boston College	14	SMU	46		60	-21	56.5			OVER*
7:30 PM	Texas Tech	33	Colorado	20		53	13.5	50
4:00 PM	UTEP	0	New Mexico	32		32	-23	48.5
10:30 PM	Baylor	35	Arizona St	18		53	-3.5	50.5
11:00 PM	Cincinnati	21	Arizona	31		52	-7	55
7:30 PM	Washington	18	USC	32		50	-10	55.5
7:00 PM	Arkansas	21	Texas A&M	38		59	-14	51.5			OVER*
3:30 PM	Ohio St	30	Iowa	12		42	13.5	46
7:00 PM	BYU	17	TCU	16		33	5.5	49.5			UNDER
3:30 PM	Alabama	33	Mississippi St	33		66	6	59.5
7:30 PM	Army	35	Louisiana Tech	18		53	3	46.5
8:00 PM	Arkansas St	8	Louisiana	29		37	-7	47
3:30 PM	Florida	38	Missouri	26		64	4	56
12:00 PM	West Virginia	29	Iowa St	29		58	-1.5	53.5
3:30 PM	Wyoming	2	North Dakota State	26		28	-20	46.5
3:30 PM	California	19	UNLV	31		50	-2	53.5
6:00 PM	Oregon St	41	Colorado St	31		72	5.5	61			OVER
7:30 PM	Utah St	6	Boise St	35		41	-20	50.5
8:00 PM	Indiana	40	Rutgers	11		51	22.5	54.5
9:30 PM	Fresno St	26	Washington St	10		36	1	47.5		AWAY MINUS *	UNDER*
10:30 PM	Texas St	39	San Diego St	26		65	4.5	58.5
12:00 AM	San Jose St	27	Hawai'i	32		59	-3	52.5

MackTheTeach

[usma1992]

NFL Week 4 Games

4

	NFL	2026Week4				O/U& SPREADS				No Bets Until Week 3 or 4		10
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		PROJ TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET	Actual Away	Actual Home
8:15 PM	PITTSBURGH	20	CLEVELAND	14		34	2.5	38.5				0	0
9:30 AM	INDIANAPOLIS	23	WASHINGTON	24		47	3.5	47.5				0	0
1:00 PM	NEWENGLAND	12	BUFFALO	29		41	-6.5	48		Home Minus 3*		0	0
1:00 PM	NYJETS	19	CHICAGO	27		46	-3	42				0	0
1:00 PM	ARIZONA	22	NYGIANTS	14		36	1	44.5				0	0
1:00 PM	DALLAS	26	HOUSTON	21		47	-2.5	48		Away Plus 5*		0	0
1:00 PM	JACKSONVILLE	19	CINCINNATI	24		43	-2.5	51				0	0
1:00 PM	GREENBAY	21	TAMPABAY	18		39	4	39.5				0	0
1:00 PM	LARAMS	25	PHILADELPHIA	16		41	3	44.5				0	0
1:00 PM	TENNESSEE	11	BALTIMORE	28		39	-11.5	43.5				0	0
4:05 PM	MIAMI	10	MINNESOTA	17		27	-11	38.5				0	0
4:25 PM	DENVER	16	SANFRANCISCO	28		44	-2.5	46.5				0	0
4:25 PM	KANSASCITY	28	LASVEGAS	22		50	4.5	47.5				0	0
4:25 PM	LACHARGERS	16	SEATTLE	24		40	-7	42.5				0	0
8:20 PM	DETROIT	29	CAROLINA	31		60	3.5	50.5				0	0
8:15 PM	ATLANTA	15	NEWORLEANS	31		46	-2.5	48.5		Home Minus 3*		0	0

[usma1992]

A lesson to be learned... which I firmly believe in... Backup QBs in the NFL are legit. I think they are 6-0 so far. Not to quote Cinderella Man... fantastic movie by the way "This time I know what I am fighting for... what's that... MILK!!!"

Backup QBs in the NFL play incredibly hard because they are fighting to stay in the show. I broke one of my cardinal rules in Survivor... I took Seattle. I'm out...

A wounded animal is extremely dangerous.

MACKTHETEACH

[usma1992]

I placed all my bets for Week 4. I will relook at the Overs when it gets closer to the weekend to check weather.

MackTheTeach

[usma1992]

System definitely didn't call the PSU game... but it didn't say to bet it. It did say the Pitt game was going to be high scoring... but didn't say to bet it... but it seemed to call the Liberty game on... but again didn't say to bet it.

All I know is I am 1-1 on the season with money on the line... I am hoping to survive Week 4 of College Football intact but I am confident in NFL in Week 4.

I am now betting until March Madness... every game gets 4% of my bankroll. It will be fun regardless.

Good Luck Tomorrow

MackTheTeach

[usma1992]

So I did some analysis on the New Mexico State game. My system had it as an OVER 53. I was cool with that expect I was worried that the previous week influenced the stats too much. In the Western Kentucky vs. NMSU both teams posted 350 yards+ in the game and it didn't hit. I actually bet the game and didn't look.... I bet it OVER 57 lol because the line had changed so much.

My one takeaway is that Western Kentucky Def was the bottom 10 of FBS with regard to giving yards up. NMSU adjusted their game plan and ran it more. It slowed the game down and ultimately the Over didn't hit.

I did not watch the game but I looked at the stats... It still could have gone OVER... but this game helped me upgrade again.

Today is the day
MackTheTeach

[usma1992]

Looks like 9-5 so far in college football... first week of betting... I'll take it... Fresno State game seems like a definite under if Fresno can pull it off that will be 11-5... my son is texting me from college and he's up big but I told him not to give my picks to his Frat buddies in case I am wrong... LOL

MACKTHETEACH