🩸 Netflix MVP MMA Odds: Rousey vs. Carano Betting Guide, Predictions & Full Fight Card
Last Updated: May 12, 2026 4:06 PM EDT • 5 minute read X Social Google News Link
Netflix hosts its first-ever live MMA broadcast this Saturday as Netflix MVP MMA odds takes over Intuit Dome in Los Angeles. Headlined by the dream fight between women's MMA pioneers Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano, we're looking at the live MVP MMA 1 odds for every fight ahead of all the action.
The co-main event features a welterweight grudge match between Nate Diaz and BKFC's "King of Violence" Mike Perry, while former UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou returns to MMA against Philipe Lins. Fans can watch the prelims at 6 p.m. ET and the main card at 9 p.m. ET on Netflix.
📊 Netflix MVP MMA odds: Rousey vs. Carano odds - Main Card
Ronda Rousey (12-2) vs. Gina Carano (7-1)
| MVP MMA 1 | Ronda Rousey | Gina Carano |
|---|---|---|
| Money line | -535 | +400 |
| Over Under | > 1.5 (+150) < 1.5 (-195) |
Ronda Rousey notes:
- The trailblazer: Rousey was the first woman signed by the UFC and its inaugural bantamweight champion, defending her belt six times before losses to Holly Holm and Amanda Nunes ended her run in 2016
- Key stat: Nine of her 12 career wins came by armbar, and she holds two of the five fastest finishes in UFC title fight history (14 seconds vs. Cat Zingano, 16 seconds vs. Alexis Davis)
Gina Carano notes:
- The original face: Carano was women's MMA's biggest star before Rousey existed, headlining a major MMA event against Cris Cyborg in 2009. She hasn't competed in nearly 17 years and is now 43 years old
- Key stat: Her only career loss came to Cris Cyborg by TKO in the first-ever women's main event in major MMA history at Strikeforce
🩸 Betting outlook
Rousey is younger and should ultimately outperform Gina, but I have real suspicions this could play out like the Tyson vs. Paul fight, meaning it’s a sham. I like the over 1.5 rounds at +150, which looks like a fantastic price. Rousey to win by decision at +1200 is another number that catches my eye.
Nate Diaz (22-13) vs. Mike Perry (14-8)
| MVP MMA 1 | Nate Diaz | Mike Perry |
|---|---|---|
| Money line | +180 | -218 |
| Over Under | > 4.5 (-115) < 4.5 (-115) |
Nate Diaz notes:
- Stockton's finest: Diaz returns to MMA for the first time since submitting Tony Ferguson at UFC 279 in September 2022. He boxed Jorge Masvidal in July 2024 but hasn't thrown a kick or shot for a takedown in nearly four years
- Key stat: Has 12 submission wins across his career, but eight of his 13 losses have come by decision, and he's been TKO'd just twice in 34 professional MMA fights
Mike Perry notes:
- The King of Violence: Perry has been sharpening his hands in bare-knuckle boxing, going 7-0 in BKFC with KOs of Luke Rockhold, Eddie Alvarez, Thiago Alves, and Jeremy Stephens. He hasn't competed in MMA since 2021
- Key stat: Holds the BKFC "King of Violence" title and has finished former champions in three of his last four bare-knuckle bouts
🩸 Betting outlook
Perry has been doing the relevant fighting lately, putting his hands on real competition in a brutal league. Diaz is coming off a four-year layoff from MMA and fought Tony Ferguson in a somewhat wonky fight last time out. Nate has a solid chin, but he's not immune to exhaustion and a sustained ground-and-pound beating. I like Mike Perry to win by KO at +185.
Francis Ngannou (18-3) vs. Philipe Lins (18-5)
| MVP MMA 1 | Francis Ngannou | Philipe Lins |
|---|---|---|
| Money line | -1450 | +850 |
| Over Under | > 1.5 (+165) < 1.5 (-215) |
Francis Ngannou notes:
- The Predator: Ngannou is a former UFC heavyweight champion and the hardest puncher in MMA history. He knocked out Renan Ferreira in his last MMA bout at PFL Super Fights in October 2024
- Key stat: Seven of his 14 UFC fights ended by KO before the two-minute mark of round one
Philipe Lins notes:
- The light heavyweight: Lins is a former PFL heavyweight champion (2018) who spent most of his career at 205 pounds. He went 4-2 in the UFC with wins over Ovince Saint Preux and Maxim Grishin before leaving the promotion
- Key stat: Enters on a four-fight win streak but is moving up to heavyweight against the most dangerous finisher in the sport
🩸 Betting outlook
Ngannou is one of the best heavyweight MMA fighters of all time. He's been out of the cage for a while, but Lins was a middling UFC light heavyweight at best. Ngannou is a whole lot better than him. Ngannou to win by KO in Round 1 at -140 is probably the best bet on this entire card.
Salahdine Parnasse (24-2) vs. Kenneth Cross (17-4)
| MVP MMA 1 | Salahdine Parnasse | Kenneth Cross |
|---|---|---|
| Money line | -1100 | +700 |
| Over Under | > 1.5 (+110) < 1.5 (-140) |
Salahdine Parnasse notes:
- KSW's two-division king: The 28-year-old Frenchman held the KSW featherweight and lightweight titles simultaneously, finishing Marcin Held in his last outing at KSW 114 in January 2026
- Key stat: 22 wins in 24 professional fights by knockout, submission, and decision alike. Only two losses across a nine-year career
Kenneth Cross notes:
- The regional grinder: Cross has been building his record across XFC and regional circuits, recently training alongside UFC bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili in Las Vegas. He finishes most of his opponents, with an 85% career finish rate
- Key stat: Riding a seven-fight win streak but faces a huge jump in competition against a multi-division champion
🩸 Betting outlook
Parnasse is -1100 for a reason. He's a two-division champion who's beaten everyone put in front of him, and Cross is stepping up from the regional ranks. The line is too big to touch on the moneyline, so look at Parnasse inside the distance. This fight should end early.
Junior Dos Santos (23-10) vs. Robelis Despaigne (5-2)
| MVP MMA 1 | Junior Dos Santos | Robelis Despaigne |
|---|---|---|
| Money line | +380 | -500 |
| Over Under | > 1.5 (+210) < 1.5 (-280) |
Junior Dos Santos notes:
- The former champ: JDS once owned the UFC heavyweight division, knocking out Cain Velasquez in 64 seconds to win the title in 2011. He's 42 now and has been competing in Gamebred Bareknuckle MMA, winning the heavyweight championship in March 2024
- Key stat: Eight of his 10 career losses have come by KO/TKO, and he's been stopped by Ngannou, Gane, Rozenstruik, and Blaydes in his last decade of fighting
Robelis Despaigne notes:
- The knockout machine: The 6-foot-7 Cuban is a 2012 Olympic bronze medalist in taekwondo who transitioned to MMA. He went 1-2 in the UFC before dominating Karate Combat, winning their heavyweight championship with a head kick KO
- Key stat: Scored KOs in 4, 12, 8, and 20 seconds across his first four Karate Combat fights. The speed of those finishes is not a typo
🩸 Betting outlook
Despaigne had a brief and rough UFC stint where his grappling got exposed, but the pure striking here plays to his strengths. He's got legitimate knockout power, is 6-foot-7 with a crazy reach advantage, and JDS at 42 is way past his prime. Despaigne to win by KO in under 1.5 rounds.
📊 Netflix MVP MMA odds: Rousey vs. Carano odds - Prelims
Namo Fazil (9-1) vs. Jake Babian (6-1)
| MVP MMA 1 | Namo Fazil | Jake Babian |
|---|---|---|
| Money line | -360 | +285 |
| Over Under | > 1.5 (+110) < 1.5 (-140) |
David Mgoyan (8-1) vs. Albert Morales (19-10)
| MVP MMA 1 | David Mgoyan | Albert Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Money line | -550 | +410 |
Aline Pereira (2-2) vs. Jade Masson-Wong (3-2)
| MVP MMA 1 | Aline Pereira | Jade Masson-Wong |
|---|---|---|
| Money line | -410 | +320 |
Chris Avila (8-9) vs. Brandon Jenkins (16-11)
| MVP MMA 1 | Chris Avila | Brandon Jenkins |
|---|---|---|
| Money line | +285 | -360 |
📺 Where to watch MVP MMA 1: Rousey vs. Carano
- Date: Saturday, May 16
- Start times: 6 p.m. ET (prelims), 9 p.m. ET (main card)
- Location: Intuit Dome (Inglewood, California)
- Streaming: Netflix
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Ethan Diamandas X social