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Titans vs. Jaguars Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 18: AFC South on the Line Saturday

Neil Parker

Last Updated: January 7, 2023 10:55 AM EST • 2 min 37 sec read.

It's win and you're in between the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars. The victor gets the AFC South title and a home playoff game. Here’s our top pick for the Week 18 game between the Titans and Jaguars based on the odds.

The red-hot Jaguars and budding star quarterback Trevor Lawrence can punch a playoff ticket with a win on Saturday, and it’ll be the organization’s first postseason appearance since 2017.

Tennessee, on the other hand, has won the AFC South in consecutive years and played five postseason games over the past three seasons. The Titans are also expected to welcome back a number of players to the lineup and benefit from the extra rest of playing the Thursday Night Football Game in Week 17.

It’s all on the line Saturday night. Can the old-guard Titans fend off the emerging Jags?

Here is our best Titans vs. Jaguars NFL pick for their Week 18 matchup (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Trevor Lawrence prop picks.

Titans vs. Jaguars Game Info

Date: Saturday, Jan. 7, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN, ESPN+, ABC
Location: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Weather: 55 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 4-mph east winds

Titans vs. Jaguars Odds

Titans vs. Jaguars Odds Analysis

The spread opened at Jacksonville -6.5 and it remains there Saturday afternoon after some minimal line movement. There was early betting support for the Titans, and the line was a consensus Jags -6 on Thursday. However, there’s been buyback on Jacksonville, and I expect that trend to continue leading up to kickoff. 

There’s been relatively even betting action on the total this week, and it’s held steady at 40 the past few days after opening at 38.5 at most sportsbooks. It’s worth noting FanDuel Sportsbook are hanging the number at 39.5 as of Saturday afternoon.

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Titans vs. Jaguars Pick

Jaguars -6.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is a matchup between two teams trending in opposite directions, and I’m not concerned about the Titans having significantly more rest after multiple starters sat out their Week 17 matchup against the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football.

Impact defenders are listed up and down the Tennessee injury report, and the Jaguars have impressed with a 5-1 record out of their Week 11 bye. Jacksonville ranks 10th in offensive DVOA per Football Outsiders during the surge, which has been fueled by Lawrence ranking fourth in success rate while throwing for 7.7 yards per attempt and completing 68.6% of his passes.

For comparison, Tennessee has lost six straight during the same stretch and posted the third-lowest overall DVOA. Add inept pass blocking, plus quarterback Josh Dobbs making just his second career start, and I don’t anticipate the Titans hanging around Saturday.

In fact, I expect Lawrence to shred the suspect Tennessee secondary. The Titans rank second-last in pass defense DVOA while allowing the highest EPA per dropback during the noted six-game stretch. It hasn’t been a short-term weakness, either. Tennessee respectively ranks 28th in both metrics for the season.

Bank on Lawrence making his first career playoff start next week.

Check out our NFL against the spread power rankings for Week 18.

Titans vs. Jaguars Best Odds

DraftKings (-105)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
-6.5-6.5-6.5-6.5-6.5
-105-108-110-110-110

There was a consensus Jags -6 spread with a -110 vig across all of our top-rated sportsbooks Thursday. However, as expected, Jacksonville has since moved to -6.5 chalk. Because the line is still below the key number of 7, I'm not overly concerned with the line movement, and DraftKings is currently charging the lowest vig to place this bet.

Titans vs. Jaguars pick updated 1/7/2023 at 815 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Neil Parker
A lifelong Cowboys, Cubs, Maple Leafs and Gators supporter, Neil has been covering sports in print and online since 2011. His past stops include USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook and RotoWire among others. He's a graduate of St. Thomas University and Acadia University and spends ample time at KenWo Golf Club.