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Trevor Lawrence Player Prop Picks, Predictions Week 18: Can QB Clinch AFC South Crown for Jaguars?

Philip Wood

Last Updated: January 7, 2023 11:01 AM EST • 2 min 56 sec read.

The Jacksonville Jaguars' hopes for a postseason berth and the AFC South division title rest on the shoulders of second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Read on for our Trevor Lawrence player props picks for the Week 18 matchup.

When these two teams met back in Week 14, Lawrence was incredible as he led the Jaguars to a 36-22 win over the Titans. In that game, Lawrence went 30-of-42 for 368 yards and three touchdowns.

This week, Lawrence is playing in what could be viewed as his first playoff game, because if the Jaguars lose, they will need a miracle to make the postseason.

Here are our best Trevor Lawrence player prop picks for the Titans vs. Jaguars Week 18 matchup (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Trevor Lawrence Player Prop Picks for Week 18

  • Trevor Lawrence (-72.5 passing yards) vs. Joshua Dobbs (-115 via DraftKings)
  • Over 14.5 rushing yards (-115 via DraftKings)
  • Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+129 via Caesars)

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Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds

Trevor Lawrence Player Props

Trevor Lawrence (-72.5 passing yards) vs. Joshua Dobbs (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

At the moment, Lawrence’s total passing yards line is set at 264.5. It’s hard to know if he will be able to clear that mark or not, as he has only done so six times this season. It seems that this number is so high because of what Lawrence did against the Titans earlier this season. Yet, that performance is also what makes it so hard to play his Under.

That said, there is value in taking Lawrence to throw for 73 more passing yards than Dobbs. Dobbs looked good last week against the Dallas Cowboys, finishing with 232 yards. But running back Derrick Henry is back this week, and Mike Vrabel’s game plan is going to be to get his best player the ball often.

In Week 14, Henry rushed for 121 yards and a touchdown against the Jaguars. And that was with his team getting blown out. The Jaguars will rely heavily on the shoulder of Lawrence, but if he’s unable to get near 300 yards against a solid defense, he should at least outperform his counterpart by a lot.

Over 14.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Lawrence has been using his legs a lot during the Jaguars’ four-game winning streak. He has gone for 20-plus yards twice, including a 51-yard performance against the Jets.

The Titans are one of the best teams in the league at stopping quarterbacks from running, as they have allowed only 220 rushing yards to signal callers all season. They haven’t gone against many mobile quarterbacks this season, however. They faced Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles in 13, but that game was a blowout and Hurts didn’t need to do much with his legs.

Many don’t think Tennessee will be in this game, but Vrabel has proven himself in situations like this before. Lawrence only had seven yards on the ground against the Titans last time out. Lawrence will have to make plays with his legs for his team to win in the regular-season finale.

Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+129) ⭐⭐⭐

Lawrence only has seven multi-passing touchdown games this season. That’s a solid number, but with how he and the Jaguars have been discussed in recent weeks, it would seem like he has more. In fact, Lawrence hasn’t thrown a single touchdown pass over the last two weeks, even though the Jaguars have outscored their opponents by a 50-6 margin over that span. 

Again, this number feels inflated because of what he did against the Titans in Week 14. The Titans are ranked 31st in the league in passing touchdowns allowed per game. They are only allowing one TD per game over their last three contests. This could be a very low-scoring game, and even if it isn’t, the value is on the Under here with a plus-money price.

Trevor Lawrence player prop picks made 01/06/2023 at 2 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.