Texans vs. Vikings Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: NFL Preseason Week 1

J.J. McCarthy makes his return to the field as the Minnesota Vikings embrace a new era under center.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: August 9, 2025 12:31 PM EDT • 4 minute read

Pictured Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy warms up as we look at our Texans vs. Vikings prediction. Photo by Jeffrey Becker / Imagn.

Two playoff teams from a year ago meet in the preseason opener as the Minnesota Vikings host the Houston Texans, and we're breaking it down with our Texans vs. Vikings prediction.

Vikings fans are likely excited to see quarterback J.J. McCarthy under center after he missed all of his rookie season with an injury. His return is a significant part of our ATS play, with Minnesota a 3-point favorite at the best NFL betting sites. It's all part of our NFL preseason Week 1 predictions.

🏈 Texans vs. Vikings expert picks & predictions

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✅ Against the spread pick: Vikings -2.5 first half spread (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ My best bet: J.J. McCarthy to throw a touchdown pass on his first drive (+410 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

🔮 Texans vs. Vikings ATS prediction

🏈 Vikings -2.5 first half spread ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -110 via Caesars ($10 to win $9.09)
🔢 Implied probability: 52.38%

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It is pretty telling that Minnesota’s -2.5 first-half spread is nearly identical to its full game spread of -3. Oddsmakers likely believe the Vikings will be aggressive in playing their starters, and namely quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who missed all of last season.

Don't forget that prior to McCarthy unfortunately suffering a torn meniscus in the preseason last year, he was lighting it up for 188 yards and two touchdowns.

This wager is limited to just the first half because McCarthy could play the entire half, and I have little to no faith in backup quarterback Sam Howell, with trade rumors already swirling for a better option. Additionally, this bet comes with five stars of confidence, as it does not appear that C.J. Stroud or other key starters will play for Houston.

While all the best sports betting sites are in unison with the 2.5-point first-half spread, Caesars is the only one offering it at the standard -110 juice compared to -115 or higher.

📖 Check out our 2025 NFL preseason betting guide for the best betting strategies and full NFL preseason schedule.

💰 Texans vs. Vikings best bet

🔥 J.J. McCarthy to throw a touchdown pass on his first drive ⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +410 via FanDuel ($10 to win $41)
🔢 Implied probability: 19.61%

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This is a double-down on our ATS wager, but also a reasonable flier on a bet with a massive payout given our confidence in J.J. McCarthy.

McCarthy will not get the support of star wide receiver Justin Jefferson, but he still went 11-for-17 for 188 yards and a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his only preseason action last year. While the interception came on his first drive, the team scored a touchdown on three of the next five drives he led.

You should also feel confident in head coach Kevin O’Connell going for it if the team gets in a 4th-and-short scenario, as he's one of the most aggressive play-callers in those situations.

📊 Texans vs. Vikings odds

Live updated odds from our best live betting sites. Follow the latest NFL scores for line history and matchup info.

🪧 Texans vs. Vikings opening odds:

Texans: +1.5 (-105)
Vikings: -1.5 (-115)

🚑 Texans vs. Vikings injuries

📈 Texans vs. Vikings betting insights

Here are some betting insights from BetMGM just prior to kickoff:

This is the second most-bet game of the day in terms of total tickets
The Vikings are also drawing the second-most action to cover -3
A whopping 85% of the handle is on the Over, with the game total set at 38.5

❓ NFL betting FAQs

What does the spread mean in betting NFL?

In NFL betting, the spread is the number of points a team is favored to win or lose by. It levels the playing field for bettors by giving an advantage or disadvantage in points. Bettors win if their pick covers the spread.

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Make sure you look at our top NFL betting sites to find the best odds for NFL Sunday. These sportsbooks include Caesars, BetMGM, bet365, FanDuel, and DraftKings.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”