Sam Darnold SNF Player Prop Bets: Touchdown Picks & Odds
Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings’ offense will look to exploit the Indianapolis Colts’ 24th-ranked pass defense on Sunday Night Football.
According to the latest Sunday Night Football odds, which have the Vikings favored by 5, Darnold and the Vikings should get back on track in their 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock) game at U.S. Bank Stadium.
If the Vikings do have offensive success and reignite their Super Bowl odds, what does that mean for Sam Darnold SNF player prop bets and our Colts vs. Vikings prediction?
The Colts enter the week allowing 227.8 passing yards per game. While that could mean great things for Darnold, our Week 9 NFL predictions think he could be overshadowed by Aaron Jones, who we highlighted in our Colts vs. Vikings player props.
Sam Darnold prop predictions for Sunday Night Football
- Sam Darnold touchdown pick: Sam Danrold 3+ passing touchdowns (+310 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Sam Darnold Under 250.5 passing yards (-111 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Sam Darnold Under 31.5 pass attempts (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NFL odds as of Sunday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
Sam Darnold touchdown pick vs. Colts
Sam Darnold 3+ passing touchdowns (+310) ⭐⭐⭐
Darnold has thrown just three touchdown passes in his last three games. This comes after throwing for 11 in the first four weeks of the year. He should get back to his early season form this week against a defense allowing 1.4 passing touchdowns per game.
Darnold has thrown at least two touchdown passes against every team he’s faced that’s allowing at least 1.0 passing touchdowns per game this season. He also threw three or more touchdown passes against the Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers, two teams allowing at least 1.5 passing touchdowns per game.
His standard line is currently at 1.5 passing touchdowns for a solid price of -130. However, bet365 is offering excellent value for three or more touchdown passes. The worst price for the prop is +275 at Caesars, and bet365 is offering +310. Therefore, take Darnold to throw two touchdowns, and also take him to throw three.
Best odds: +310 via bet365 | Implied probability: 24.39%
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Sam Darnold player props
NFL picks made Sunday; odds subject to change.
Sam Darnold Under 250.5 passing yards (-111) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Even with the Colts producing a bottom-10 pass defense in the NFL, there are numerous reasons to take this Under. Darnold has thrown for fewer than 250 yards in four of his seven games, and he’s yet to throw for more than 275 yards in a single contest, so his ceiling isn’t very high, even in a potentially great matchup.
Additionally, the Colts are allowing 151.9 rushing yards per game. The Vikings rank just 22nd in the league in rushing yards per game, but Jones has proven successful in many favorable matchups, rushing for at least 90 yards in four contests.
Four of the five best NFL prop betting sites have a total set at 249.5. Without much disparity in pricing, get in at Caesars, which is the only sportsbook with a total set at 250.5.
Best odds: -111 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.61%
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Sam Darnold Under 31.5 pass attempts (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This feels like a trap from oddsmakers, which is the only reason it’s not a five-star play. Darnold hasn’t thrown more than 31 passes in a game this season. He’s also only thrown more than 28 passes once all year.
The Colts are allowing 32.0 attempts per game, which ranks 16th in the NFL. Perhaps Joe Flacco’s presence has oddsmakers feeling like this will be a shootout, but with how bad the Colts’ run defense is, the Vikings should lean on Jones rather than have Darnold set a new season-high in pass attempts.
FanDuel is asking -120 and is the only major sportsbook with a price worse than -105. All things considered, the FanDuel price feels way more accurate than what the other sportsbooks are offering, so take the most value at BetMGM.
Best odds: +100 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 50%
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Colts vs. Vikings odds
Sunday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Colts vs. Vikings
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: U.S. Bank Stadium (Minneapolis, Minn.)
- How to watch: NBC, Peacock
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Vikings -5 (-110 via DraftKings)
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