Raiders vs. Chiefs Week 14 Picks: Kansas City To Grind it Out Again

The Las Vegas Raiders travel to face the Kansas City Chiefs in another crucial game for the AFC playoff picture. We'll cover all the betting angles with our Raiders and Chiefs picks.

The Raiders "new coach bump" was short-lived under interim head coach Rich Bisaccia. After winning their first two games under his direction, the Raiders have gone 1-4, including a 27-point home loss to the Chiefs in Week 10. At 6-6, the Raiders are currently on the outside looking in for the AFC playoff race.

For Kansas City, it has been quite the ride this season. After stumbling out of the gate with a 3-4 record, they've won five straight since. What has been most surprising is the manner in which they've done it — tight, low-scoring games, outside of the rout of the Raiders. It's not something we've become accustomed to in the Patrick Mahomes-Andy Reid era.

Here are my picks and predictions for the Week 14 matchup between the Raiders and Chiefs (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Raiders vs. Chiefs Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Dec. 12, 1 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MOWeather: 57 degrees, sunny

Raiders vs. Chiefs Odds Analysis

The line opened with the Chiefs as 9.5-point favorites and has stayed there thus far. Just over 50% of the bets are on the Raiders to cover, according to the Sportsbook Review Consensus, likely due to the fact that the Chiefs are 13-18 against the spread over the past two seasons.

The Over/Under started at 48 and has ticked slightly down to 47.5 or 48 across most sportsbooks. The Raiders are 6-6 on Overs this season, while the Chiefs are just 5-7.

Raiders vs. Chiefs Picks

Chiefs -9.5 (-110) ????Under 48 (-110) ???

SEE ALSO: NFL Week 14 Odds, Lines, and Picks

Raiders vs. Chiefs Predictions

Chiefs -9.5 (-110)

It was just in Week 10 that the Chiefs were only 2.5-point favorites against the Raiders. There's no chance that we get that good of a number in this one, as the Chiefs are not only on a roll but thoroughly dominated Las Vegas in the previous matchup.

The game plan against the Chiefs is pretty simple: play a lot of Cover 2, make them throw underneath, and take away the big plays. The Raiders refused to do this in their most recent meeting, and thus we saw a return of the high-flying Chiefs offense that most expected coming into this season. Mahomes threw for 406 yards, and both tight end Travis Kelce and running back Darrel Williams topped 100 receiving yards.

I expect the Raiders to follow the Cover 2 game plan this time, but I don't think it will make much of a difference. The Chiefs have become skilled at playing complementary football and taking what the defense gives them. Removing the game against Las Vegas, Kansas City is averaging just 18.5 points over its last four games, but the defense has given up only 10.5 points per game. The Chiefs rank just 20th in explosive plays according to Sharp Football Analysis, defined as pass plays that go over 20 yards and run plays that go over 10. They're 23rd by explosive pass plays.

Dinking and dunking their way down the field is not what we've come to expect from the Chiefs, but it's what they have excelled at in recent weeks. The turnover luck that went against them early in the season is slowly turning in their favor, and I think they win this game comfortably.

Under 48 (-110)

The Under is appealing for a lot of the reasons listed above and more.

Five of the last six Chiefs games have gone Under, as well as two of the last three for the Raiders. Las Vegas ranks eighth in yards per game, but just 17th in points per game. Maybe most importantly, the Raiders are 29th in red-zone scoring by touchdown percentage while the Chiefs are third in red-zone defense by TD% over their last three games.

Raiders tight end Darren Waller (knee, back) is still considered questionable and did not practice Wednesday, so it's possible QB Derek Carr will not have his top red-zone target.

Grab the total sooner than later, because I can see this dropping before kickoff on Sunday. I foresee a final score along the lines of 24-10.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Raiders-Chiefs picks made on 12/9/2021 at 12:50 p.m. ET.