NFL Player Props Week 16: Predictions, Picks & Odds for Monday

After a profitable Week 15, we're off to a strong start on our Week 16 NFL player props as we look ahead to Monday, and we'll look to keep cashing this week while using the best NFL odds from our leading NFL prop betting sites.

After a lousy showing in Week 14, we righted the ship with a 4-3 record (plus-0.52 units) on our Week 15 NFL player props, including a 4-1 record (plus-2.52 units) on four-star plays. Incredibly, Philadelphia Eagles running back D'Andre Swift managed to get tackled at the 1-yard line for the 1,000th time in 2023 to prevent us from cashing a +190 wager on him to score against the Seattle Seahawks on Monday.

We shook that off by cashing both of our bets on Thursday Night Football, which saw Kyren Williams run wild and Matthew Stafford throw multiple TD passes for the fifth straight week in the Los Angeles Rams' blowout win over the New Orleans Saints. We struck a third time on Saturday afternoon in another volume-heavy day for Cincinnati Bengals QB Jake Browning.

Now comes the real present: the Baltimore Ravens (11-3) and San Francisco 49ers (11-3) facing off on Christmas Day in a Monday Night Football showdown between the two front-runners in the Super Bowl odds and 2023 NFL MVP odds. Will Brock Purdy continue his magical run for the title favorites? Or will Lamar Jackson punctuate an MVP resume with his team's most significant win of the season?

In addition to our NFL Week 16 predictions and NFL Week 16 player props, let's dive in with our best NFL player props for Week 16 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL player props for Week 16

• Brock Purdy to throw an interception (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Mike Gesicki to score a touchdown (+550 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
• Tyjae Spears Over 42.5 rushing + receiving yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
• Alec Pierce Under 40.5 receiving yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
• Dalton Kincaid Over 3.5 receptions (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ ❌
• Jake Browning Over 232.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
• Kyren Williams Over 89.5 rushing yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
• Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 passing TDs (-135 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅

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NFL player props for Week 16: Monday Night Football

Brock Purdy to throw an interception (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There's no doubt that Purdy has put up impressive numbers to this point, hence why he's dealing as the NFL MVP odds favorite entering Week 16. But he'll face arguably his toughest test yet on Monday.

Baltimore excels at disguising its coverage under defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, whose defense has blitz more than 31% of the time in 12 of 14 games and feature elite playmakers at all three levels. That's especially true for the safety trio of Kyle Hamilton, Marcus Williams, and Geno Stone, who act like chess pieces within Macdonald's versatile scheme.

Those safeties have accounted for eight of the Ravens' 11 interceptions on the season, and it wouldn't surprise me if one of them baits Purdy into an ill-advised throw on Monday - which wouldn't be as unusual as the surface-level stats might suggest.

While the 49ers QB has thrown just seven interceptions this year, he ranks in the bottom five in turnover-worthy throw rate (3.5%) and bad throw percentage (17%) among those with 14 starts. He's also thrown at least one pick in five of his eight games with 27-plus attempts, which feels like a prerequisite to beat this elite Ravens defense.

Purdy has thrown an interception in two of his last four games, and he threw one against each of the top-five defenses per DVOA that he's faced this season. I like his chances of throwing another Monday, especially at a coin-flip price.

NFL player props for Week 16: Sunday

Mike Gesicki to score a touchdown (+550 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅

I don't often include long-shot bets in this best bets column for obvious reasons: the low hit rate. But this wager is so appealing that I'm betting a full unit on it myself.

Gesicki has given way to fellow tight end Hunter Henry all season, who leads the team in targets (61), receptions (42), and touchdowns (six) while accounting for nearly half the team's total receiving TDs (14). He's been an especially favored target for QB Bailey Zappe, who has thrown three of his four TDs to Henry since taking over two weeks ago.

Now Henry (knee) is set to miss his first game of the season, and Gesicki will assume top tight end duties against a Denver Broncos defense allowing the most touchdowns to the position (nine).

Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta scored three times against this Denver defense in Week 15, and I love Gesicki's chances of snagging his second touchdown grab of the season on Sunday.

Tyjae Spears Over 42.5 rushing + receiving yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅

We cashed this exact bet two weeks ago, when Spears erupted for a career-high 118 yards on Monday Night Football. And he's primed for another massive game on Sunday.

The rookie posted a quieter Week 15 (37 yards), but he still outpaced Tennessee Titans starter Derrick Henry, who finished with the fewest total yards (10) of any player with 20-plus touches since 1948. It was so bad that Spears received four of his team's final five handoffs during the game.

With the Titans out of playoff contention and Henry's contract expiring after this season, I'd expect Mike Vrabel to see what Spears can do against a Seahawks defense surrendering 164 rushing yards per game over the last four weeks - the second-most leaguewide.

Seattle also ranks in the bottom 12 on the season in rushing yards (94.5) and receiving yards (35.6) allowed per game to opposing backs, and the team has surrendered the third-most touchdowns (16). That feels like a matchup to take advantage of with rookie QB Will Levis (ankle) ruled out of this game.

I don't mind a bet on Spears to reach paydirt (+425 via DraftKings) for just the second time in 2023. But I really like the Over on this yardage total, which is six yards lower than the market consensus among our other best sports betting sites.

Alec Pierce Under 40.5 receiving yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅

This number is inflated because Michael Pittman, the Indianapolis Colts' top receiver, won't be on the field Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons due to a concussion. That may be good news for Pierce's target share, but it's appreciably worse news for his matchup.

Pittman would have drawn the attention of All-Pro cornerback A.J. Terrell, the Falcons' best cover corner and one of the top boundary defenders in football. Of those with at least 450 coverage snaps, Terrell is allowing the fourth-fewest yards per game (27.1) and is tied for the highest forced incompletion rate (22%) among 37 qualified CBs.

With Pittman out, Terrell can set his sights on Pierce, who has finished below 30-plus yards in five of his last six games and notched just one catch in Week 15. That was his sixth game with one reception or fewer despite playing nearly every snap through 14 contests.

It's been a forgettable season for the second-year wideout, especially with limited downfield targets from fill-in QB Gardner Minshew. This total is priced for a breakout, and I'd be shocked if we saw that Sunday.

NFL player props for Week 16: Sunday Night Football (Saturday)

Dalton Kincaid Over 3.5 receptions (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ ❌

This might be my favorite bet of the entire week, across any sport, as I've had this matchup circled for weeks - even before the Chargers' historically inept showing last week.

If you've been following my picks in recent weeks, you know how much I love to attack this Los Angeles defense, which has been abysmal at protecting the middle of the field. Some of that falls on the coaching staff, but much of the blame rests with safety Derwin James - who ranks seventh-worst in PFF defensive grade (53.8) with the sixth-most receptions allowed (35) among 65 safeties with at least 500 snaps.

The Chargers addressed that first part this week, firing head coach Brandon Staley and reshuffling their defensive staff under new interim coach Giff Smith. Still, don't expect that to be an overnight panacea for a group that ranks in the bottom 10 in targets (103), receptions (78), and receiving yards (823) surrendered to opposing tight ends.

There are so many ways to back Kincaid in this matchup - I've already bet the Over on his receiving yards (28.5 at FanDuel) and longest reception (14.5 at bet365) - but my favorite bet is his receptions total at 3.5, as the rookie has caught five or more passes in seven of his last eight games.

The lone exception came last week, when he was blanked by a Dallas Cowboys defense that ranks in the top five at defending tight ends. He also ceded snaps to Dawson Knox, a superior blocking tight end, in a run-fueled 31-10 rout by the Bills.

I'd expect Kincaid to be a more featured part of the game plan on Sunday Night Football (on Saturday) against a defense that can be so easily exploited over the middle. This wager is dealing at +105 or worse at three of our five best sportsbooks, so this +130 price at bet365 is the cherry on top of Saturday's sundae.

NFL player props for Week 16: Saturday

Jake Browning Over 232.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅

I went back and forth between highlighting this bet or Chase Brown's receiving yards total (16.5), which I explored in detail in my Bengals vs. Steelers NFL player props. I'd recommend reading that to see the full case for both wagers, but this one is among my favorite plays of the week.

In case you haven't noticed, Browning has looked legit since his tepid debut start against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12. Since then, he's led the league in passing yards (317.7 YPG), completion rate (76.7%), and PFF passing grade (90.4) as the clear catalyst for a resurgent Cincinnati offense.

Browning finished with 275-plus yards in all three games, and he narrowly missed this total in his first career start (227 yards). Since that game, Pittsburgh has promptly allowed two backup quarterbacks in Bailey Zappe (240) and Gardner Minshew (215) to find success even on a modest 28 attempts each.

Browning threw it 42 times last week and is tied for eighth in total attempts (103) over the last four weeks. The Bengals clearly trust their fill-in QB to lead the charge down the stretch, and I'd bet on the vengeful Browning to show up this Steelers defense after that Week 12 loss.

As if that wasn't enough, this prop is dealing at 240.5 yards at four of our five best sports betting sites, so we're gaining an extra eight yards of cushion just for betting this at FanDuel. That extra value, combined with Browning's play over the last few weeks, adds up to a five-star play in my book.

NFL player props for Week 16: Thursday Night Football

Kyren Williams Over 89.5 rushing yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅

This number has climbed at all of our best sportsbooks since we gave it out in our Saints vs. Rams NFL player props. But we'd still play the Over here with room to spare.

Williams has been emerging as one of the NFL's premier rushers in 2023 while pacing all backs in rushing yards per game (95.3) and success rate (59.7%). He also ranks second in yards before contact (617) and third in broken tackles (20) despite playing in just 10 of 14 games.

The second-year star is averaging 131 yards on the ground over his last five games, rushing for 88 yards against the top-ranked Cleveland Browns defense and tallying at least 110 yards in the other four contests. Now he'll take aim at a Saints defense allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (154.1) and per carry (5.0) since Week 6. The Saints have given up 110-plus yards in eight of nine games during that stretch.

Four of our five best sports betting sites are dealing this total at 91.5 yards, so it's surprising to see FanDuel offering 89.5 yards with -113 odds both ways. Take the early movement on this prop at the NFL prop betting sites as a sign to grab that number before it disappears.

Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 passing TDs (-135 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅

Much like with the Williams wager, these odds have been moving since we first highlighted this prop earlier in the week. This price still doesn't deter me from backing one of the NFL's best passers over the past month.

Stafford had thrown multiple touchdown passes in just one of his first nine starts entering Week 12. He's done so in each of his last four games, and his 12 touchdown passes over that stretch rank first among all quarterbacks.

That comes amid an uptick in volume and aggressiveness from Stafford, who has thrown at least 33 passes in each of the last four weeks. Fittingly, the Pro Bowl passer ranks fourth in big-time throws (nine) and fifth in pass attempts traveling 20-plus yards downfield (17) over the last month. That all comes while getting the ball out at the fourth-fastest rate (2.54 seconds) among the 28 passers with 100-plus dropbacks.

This is starting to feel like the Stafford of old, and the Saints have been struggling to limit top-tier passers despite an easy schedule to pad their overall stats. Over 1.5 is trading at shorter than -155 odds through two of our best sports betting apps, so we still see value in this market-best number from DraftKings, even if it's shortened throughout the week.

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