NFL Player Props & Odds Week 3: Best Props Bets
We cashed two of our three NFL player props last week to get back to .500 on the season, and we're shooting for a clean sweep with our NFL player prop bets for Week 3.
- We're fading two young passers in difficult matchups against elite defensive coaches
- We're also selling the hype on the NFL's leading rusher ahead of a tricky Week 3 matchup
- Finally, we're buying low on a much-maligned receiver after a QB change
As part of our NFL Week 3 predictions, here are our favorite player props for this weekend.
NFL player prop bets for Week 3
NFL odds as of Friday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Bo Nix Over 0.5 interceptions (-168 via FanDuel) at Buccaneers ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- J.K. Dobbins Under 53.5 rushing yards (+100 via bet365) at Steelers ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- D'Andre Swift Over 76.5 rushing + receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) at Colts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Skylar Thompson Under 33.5 yards longest completion (-114 via FanDuel) at Seahawks ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Diontae Johnson Over 47.5 receiving yards (-110 via BetMGM) at Raiders ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NFL picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Bo Nix Over 0.5 interceptions (-168) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Another week, another bet against Bo Nix keeping his powder dry in his first month as an NFL starter.
I don't mean to pile on the rookie passer, but he's faced a murderer's row of defenses to open his pro career and hasn't exactly passed the test - throwing two interceptions each against the Seattle Seahawks (Week 1) and Pittsburgh Steelers (Week 2).
Now he faces Todd Bowles and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who picked off Jared Goff twice last week in a win over the Detroit Lions.
These -168 odds are much shorter than his -120 odds last week, but there's still value at this price with the rest of our best sports betting sites offering -185 or worse on this same wager.
Best odds: -168 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 62.69%
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J.K. Dobbins Under 53.5 rushing yards (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I absolutely love Dobbins, who was one of my favorite players in the entire league in his first four years with the Baltimore Ravens. I also bought low on his preseason stock in the fantasy and betting markets with the idea that he could be a potent RB1 for the Los Angeles Chargers.
All that said, this feels like a quintessential sell-high spot on the fifth-year back after he tore up two of the NFL's worst run defenses.
Dobbins is averaging four yards before contact on his 27 attempts - the third-highest rate for any running back - but he ranks just 14th in PFF rushing grade (73.3) behind an offensive line ranked 14th in run blocking grade (66.6).
Translation: he's been a major beneficiary of poor run fits and even worse tackling. He deserves credit for shedding those tackles at an elite rate, but he'll face a tall order Sunday against a Steelers defense that stacks the box at the NFL's highest clip.
Maybe Dobbins really is a top-five back even after multiple lower body injuries. Or, maybe, he'll revert to form and help us cash this ticket at even money at bet365.
Best odds: +100 via bet365 | Implied probability: 50%
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D'Andre Swift Over 76.5 rush + rec yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Unlike Dobbins, Swift has gotten off to a miserable start with a new team in 2024. But this profiles as an ideal matchup for the former second-rounder to shine.
The Colts have been absolutely wretched against the run, allowing a league-worst 237 yards per game through two weeks. Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs both went off for 150-plus yards against this front, which placed star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner (ankle) on injured reserve earlier this week.
With quarterback Caleb Williams struggling mightily through his first two career starts, I'd expect the Bears to lean on their prized free-agent signing in a plus-plus matchup on Sunday. I also anticipate Swift being used on screens and quick passes given some of Chicago's issues up front.
Three of our best sportsbooks are hanging a total of 78.5 for Swift, who cleared this total in seven of 16 games last year while recording 70-plus in three other games.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
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Skylar Thompson Under 33.5 yards longest completion (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is a brutal spot for Thompson, who steps in for Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) after sitting on the bench all of last season.
The third-year passer completed eight of 14 passes in relief last week with none of them going for more than 16 yards. It was a similar story in 2022, when he didn't complete a pass longer than 32 yards in 105 attempts.
Now he'll head to a raucous environment at Lumen Field to face a stout Seahawks defense led by head coach Mike Macdonald, whose disguise-heavy scheme forces quarterbacks to settle for underneath throws or risk a mistake downfield.
Seattle is allowing the fifth-lowest average depth of target (6.0), and I don't expect Mike McDaniel to ask too much of his young QB in his first start in two years.
Considering that Thompson has never completed a pass longer than 32 yards in his professional career, this is one of my favorite bets of the week with a $10 wager returning a $8.77 profit at FanDuel.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
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Diontae Johnson Over 47.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I've always been a sucker for Johnson, who has been plagued by lousy quarterback play (and inconsistent effort) throughout his six-year pro career.
Both converged through his first two games with the Carolina Panthers, as he recorded a combined five catches for 34 yards with Bryce Young under center.
That's why our best sports betting apps have such low expectations for the former Pro Bowl wideout against a mediocre Las Vegas Raiders secondary, even after the Panthers benched Young in favor of veteran Andy Dalton ahead of Week 3.
Johnson cleared this total in nine of 13 games last year as part of the Steelers' 25th-ranked passing attack. If Dalton is even competent on Sunday, Johnson should be able to take full advantage at these -110 odds at BetMGM, which turn a $10 bet into a $9.09 profit.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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NFL betting odds pages
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- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
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- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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