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NFL Player Props Divisional Round: Predictions, Picks & Odds for Sunday

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: January 21, 2024 3:18 PM EST • 4 min 48 sec read.

Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills carries the ball for a touchdown as we make our NFL Divisional Round player props picks and predictions ahead of Sunday's NFL playoffs doubleheader.
Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills carries the ball for a touchdown during the first half of the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on December 10, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images via AFP.

We narrowly missed our first NFL player props bet of the Divisional Round, but we're looking ahead to Sunday to stay hot with our Divisional Round NFL player props using the best NFL odds from our leading NFL prop betting sites.

After finishing the regular season on a high note, we hit a snag on Wild Card Weekend with a 2-4 record (-2.28 units) on our NFL player props. Two of those losses came by a combined two yards, but those are the breaks in the playoffs when markets are as sharp as ever.

However, we profited in three of the four prior weeks on our NFL player prop picks, and I like our chances of returning to form during the divisional round.

We came up just short in the Baltimore Ravens' blowout win over the Houston Texans, as Gus Edwards ran 10 times but fell behind teammates Justice Hill (13) and Lamar Jackson (11) in rushing.

Sunday brings even more compelling matchups with our Buccaneers vs. Lions prediction and Chiefs vs. Bills prediction. I previewed both games earlier this week, and I'll update this column with my favorite prop picks for those contests over the weekend.

In addition to our NFL predictions for the Divisional Round and Super Bowl picks and predictions, let's dive in with our best NFL player props for the Divisional Round (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL player props for the Divisional Round

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NFL player props: Sunday

Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-102 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Earlier this week, in my Buccaneers vs. Lions prediction, I highlighted Mayfield's passing yards prop as my favorite value of the weekend. Sure enough, the market moved by 20 yards across our best sports betting apps, which is a great sign for those of us who bought early on what I tabbed a five-star bet.

This one isn't quite as sexy - especially after BetRivers moved off the plus-money bet I pointed out earlier this week - but I still think this has better than a 50/50 shot of cashing, which is what FanDuel is saying with this price.

As I laid out in that Bucs-Lions preview, Detroit's secondary has been one of the NFL's worst all season long but especially over the back half of the schedule. We saw that continued over Wild Card Weekend, as Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford carved up his former team for 367 yards and two long touchdowns.

Mayfield is set up to do the same a week after throwing for 337 yards and three scores against a similarly inept Philadelphia Eagles secondary. With this bet dealing at -110 or worse elsewhere and as low as -117 at Caesars, I'd still make this bet at this price.

Josh Allen to score a touchdown (-105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I've already gone into depth on this in my Chiefs vs. Bills prediction and our NFL Divisional Round expert picks, so I won't go into extraneous detail here.

This is a pretty simple bet: Allen has been a touchdown machine this season, particularly under interim coordinator Joe Brady, and I like his chances of keeping his streak alive against a blitz-heavy Chiefs defense that has coaxed him to run in the past.

These -105 odds at Caesars aren't the best price we've seen all week - that was the +100 wager we called out on Tuesday - but I wouldn't let five cents stop you from one of the best values on the board.

NFL player props: Saturday

Gus Edwards Over 13.5 rushing attempts (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ❌

This is a fascinating game to handicap given the weather conditions in Baltimore, where winds are expected to reach 25 mph with gusts approaching 35 mph amid sub-freezing temperatures. As we've seen before, that combination of wind and frigid conditions typically means a long day for quarterbacks.

It also presents an opportunity for the Ravens to exert their will offensively, and Edwards is well-suited for the workhorse role. The veteran back has been used more sparingly in recent weeks amid blowouts and scheduled rest. But he's cleared this total six times in 2023-24, including all three games with at least 33 snaps.

He should receive that on Saturday, especially with Baltimore's offense unlikely to come out firing through the air after nearly three weeks off from legitimate game action. Even with the layoff, I'm expecting the Ravens to win this game, which would spell a favorable game script for this bet to cash.

The Texans' run defense has been impressive down the stretch, which is why I'm less bullish on Edwards' yardage prop (51.5 via FanDuel), though I wouldn't balk if you wanted to bet the Over. But this is my preferred way to bet on what I expect to be a busy day for Edwards and the Ravens' rushing offense.

Brock Purdy Under 30.5 pass attempts (-108 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ❌

This prop total has been on the move, dealing as high as 31.5 before dropping as low as 29.5 at FanDuel as of Friday. Even if you missed the high mark on this prop total, there's still tremendous value at this number for so many reasons.

For one, Purdy simply hasn't been a high-volume passer in 2023-24. The seventh-round pick has thrown it 31-plus times in just three of his 16 starts this season, including only once since late October. The 49ers have instead relied on top back Christian McCaffrey as the fulcrum of their star-studded offense.

I don't expect that to change Saturday against the Packers, who feature one of the league's worst run defenses. Neither do oddsmakers, who have priced McCaffrey as a heavy favorite to notch at least 18 carries. When CMC enjoys that type of workload, Purdy is averaging just 27 attempts while clearing this total once in eight such contests.

And then there's the weather. As our Mike Spector noted in his Brock Purdy NFL player props, the 49ers QB produced one of the worst games of his career during a rain-soaked Week 6 loss to the Cleveland Browns. He finished with a season-low 4.6 yards per attempt while throwing just 27 times.

Sunday's game should feature heavy rain with wind gusts up to 20 mph. Head coach Kyle Shanahan would surely prefer not to rely on his second-year passer in a do-or-die spot in that type of environment. It doesn't help that Purdy's hand size (9.25 inches) is in the bottom 25th percentile, which absolutely makes a difference in tough conditions.

As a bonus, Under 30.5 is dealing at -120 or worse across all of our best sports betting sites except BetRivers, where we're scoring a relatively strong -108 price. This would be a five-star play at the better number earlier this week, but it remains one of my favorite wagers heading into the Divisional Round.

Check out our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart
C Jackson Cowart is an award-winning sports writer, reporter, and editor with nearly a decade of experience in the industry, with previous stops at theScore, Action Network, Forbes, and ESPN before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's written about sports betting for the last five years, with a specialty in NFL, NBA, MLB, and collegiate futures markets and a weakness for novelty props and betting on the eventual runner-up. He's also an avid fantasy sports manager and commissioner and runs a sports card business on the side. He's a fiercely proud Oregon native and UNC alumnus, and he can't seem to stop betting on Ben Simmons to win MVP.