Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction, Pick & Odds: AFC Divisional Round
Star quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen take center stage in the AFC Divisional Round, though our Chiefs vs. Bills prediction based on the best NFL odds expect the defensive units for Kansas City and Buffalo to stand tall on Sunday.
Get ready for the highly-anticipated rematch between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, following their epic clash in the 2022 AFC Divisional Round. The Kansas City Chiefs visit the Buffalo Bills on Sunday night in a thrilling matchup between two of the top favorites by the Super Bowl odds.
In their previous playoff encounter, these superstar quarterbacks combined for 707 passing yards and seven touchdowns, resulting in the Chiefs' 42-36 overtime triumph. This time, Mahomes finds himself as the underdog for only the second time in his postseason career, marking his first-ever road playoff start.
Will Mahomes secure another victory as a playoff underdog, or will Allen seek revenge and lead the favored Bills to triumph? The Bills remain one of the hottest teams in our Super Bowl predictions, adding more excitement to this highly-anticipated showdown.
As part of our NFL Divisional Round predictions and in addition to our Patrick Mahomes player props and Travis Kelce player props, here is our best Chiefs vs. Bills prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Chiefs vs. Bills prediction
Under 45.5 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Anyone who says they know definitively who will win this game is kidding themselves, as these two teams have combined for some of the most wild and unpredictable finishes the sport has ever seen. They've also been wildly inconsistent this year on a week-by-week and even snap-by-snap basis, hence the strong two-way action thus far.
These defenses appear to be rounding into form at the perfect time, though, and I think the action we've seen on the Under is the right move in this matchup.
We all remember that epic shootout in 2022, but these aren't the same teams that took the field in that playoff thriller. In fact, both matchups since then have fallen below this total, cashing the Under on their respective totals by a combined 22 points.
This year, the Chiefs have leaned into the strength of their elite defense - which ranks sixth in EPA/play and seventh in DVOA - amid their catastrophic issues catching the football. The Bills have seen a similar shift down the stretch, relying on the run game and an opportunistic defense to lead the way.
That's why we've seen this total drop across our best sports betting sites even with Mahomes and Allen taking the field. Those two have me leery of giving this anything more than three stars of confidence - I'd rather bet the prop below above all else - but from a pure value perspective, this is the best side or total bet to make ahead of kickoff.
Josh Allen to score a touchdown (+105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
I laid out the case for this wager in our NFL Divisional Round expert picks, so if you want my full reasoning behind this bet - or to see what the rest of the crew is betting this weekend - I'd recommend checking out that article.
Long story short: Allen has been unleashed as promised under interim coordinator Joe Brady, and he's responded by reaching paydirt in six of his last seven games. He's also historically run wild against the Chiefs, no doubt as a response to Steve Spagnuolo's blitz-heavy approach that should extend into this weekend's rematch.
This wager was originally dealing at +100 odds at Caesars when I gave it out earlier this week. Five stars might feel a bit aggressive at this new price, but this is still 10 cents better than the next-best odds on the market, and I fully expect this to cash on Sunday.
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Chiefs vs. Bills best odds
bet365 (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 45.5 | Under 45.5 | Under 45.5 | Under 45.5 | Under 45.5 |
| -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
The market is in full consensus on the total for this game, with all five of our best sports betting apps hanging a total of 45.5 with -110 odds in either direction.
My choice among the options listed is bet365, but that's entirely a personal preference. With the market so aligned, I'd highly recommend checking out our best sportsbook promos to squeeze a little more out of this wager ahead of the NFL Divisional Round.
Chiefs vs. Bills odds
Chiefs vs. Bills odds analysis
The line for this game has been all over the place this week, and that could continue all the way up until kickoff.
The Bills opened as 2.5-point favorites on Monday night, and they were bet up to -3 at some books before some sharp buyback at that number. As of Friday, four of our five best sports betting apps are dealing Bills -2.5 with heavy juice, while Caesars is offering Chiefs +3 at -120 odds.
As we mentioned above, the total has moved slightly after opening between 46 and 46.5 across our best live betting sites, with all of those shops settling in at 45.5 entering the weekend.
Chiefs vs. Bills game info
- When: Sunday, Jan. 21 at 6:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 23 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 13-mph winds
Chiefs-Bills prediction made Friday at 3:15 p.m. ET.
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