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Travis Kelce NFL Player Props, Odds Divisional Round: Predictions for Chiefs vs. Bills

Philip Wood

Last Updated: January 21, 2024 3:17 PM EST • 2 min 50 sec read.

The Buffalo Bills host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night, and we're making our best Travis Kelce NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.

Negative temperatures didn’t stop Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce from producing a solid game against the Miami Dolphins during the wild-card round. He finished the game with seven catches for 71 yards. It was his first seven-reception game since Nov. 20 against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Kelce finished with six catches for 83 yards when he faced the Buffalo Bills earlier in 2023-24. Is he in line for another solid performance on Sunday?

To complement our Chiefs-Bills prediction and Patrick Mahomes player prop picks, here are our best Travis Kelce NFL player prop predictions for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Divisional Round matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Travis Kelce NFL player prop predictions for the Divisional Round

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Travis Kelce player props

Travis Kelce Over 6.5 receptions (+140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Kelce has been inconsistent during 2023-24, but Wild Card Weekend may have provided a look at what to expect from him for the remainder of the playoffs. Though he was second to Rashee Rice in receptions, yards, and targets, the Chiefs made a much greater effort to get him the ball than in their first meeting against the Miami Dolphins.

Kelce finished just five regular-season games with seven-plus receptions. While his first meeting with the Bills wasn’t one of those outings, he was targeted 10 times in that game.

The price for over 5.5 receptions is too high, with most of our best sports betting sites asking -145. But the odds get significantly better for over 6.5, especially at bet365. The Bills gave up the eighth-fewest yards to tight ends during the campaign, but they allowed 83 receptions to the position, which was tied for 16th. For +140, take a bit of a chance.

Travis Kelce longest reception Under 19.5 yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Kelce has logged at least one catch for 20-plus yards in eight of his 16 games this season. He recorded 23 yards on one reception against the Bills earlier in 2023-24. But it's hard to envision him duplicating that effort on Sunday, even if he ends the game with seven-plus grabs.

The Bills are allowing 9.1 yards per reception to tight ends this season. While Kelce could take advantage of a busted coverage once, his big-play ability hasn’t been the same recently. After Kelce went for 83 yards against them in their first meeting, the Bills will keep Kelce in front of them on Sunday night.

The price for this prop is best at BetMGM and Caesars among our best live betting sites. Both sportsbooks are offering -110 for the Under. 

Travis Kelce first Chiefs touchdown scorer (+400 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐

The current price for Kelce to score a single touchdown in this game isn't not worth a bet. He’s registered only five touchdowns all season, and his last came back in Week 11 against the Eagles. The best price available is just +135.

However, Kelce to be the Chiefs’ first touchdown scorer provides a lot of value. Since Kelce getting into the end zone is already a long shot, there’s no harm in getting better odds for him to score first for the Chiefs.

Avoid taking him to be the game’s first touchdown scorer, as the Bills could get the ball and walk down the field against the Chiefs. But despite Kelce’s struggles in 2023-24, he remains a red-zone threat. +400 for this prop is significantly more valuable than +135 for him to score any time.

Travis Kelce player prop picks made 1/20/2024 at 11:22 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil is a Sports Betting Analyst for Sportsbook Review and BettingPros.com, specializing in NFL and college football. He previously covered college football and college basketball for CanesInsight.com, where he also hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast. Phil is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is if a line doesn't make sense, just assume that Vegas knows something you don't. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. Some would call him a frontrunner for his love of the Yankees and the Celtics, but he's also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and will never forgive the refs for the blown pass interference call against the Cowboys in 2015.