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Buccaneers vs. Lions Prediction, Pick & Odds: NFC Divisional Round

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: January 21, 2024 1:12 PM EST • 4 min read.

Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers drops back to pass as we share our best Buccaneers vs. Lions prediction.
Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers drops back to pass during a game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images via AFP.

Our Buccaneers vs. Lions prediction based on the best NFL odds expects Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield to lead his team to an impressive showing in Detroit on Sunday.

Having already emerged victorious as underdogs in the postseason by defeating the Philadelphia Eagles on Wild Card Weekend, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers aim to extend their success against the favored Detroit Lions in the upcoming NFC Divisional Round on Sunday.

Despite being the NFC team with the longest Super Bowl odds, the Buccaneers strengthened their position by decisively defeating the defending NFC champions in the wild-card round on Monday.

Bettors are showing support for the Lions, who secured a narrow win last week and are considered significant favorites for Sunday's game. The Lions are also gaining popularity in the latest Super Bowl predictions.

As part of our NFL Divisional Round predictions and in addition to our Buccaneers-Lions player props and Baker Mayfield props, here is our best Buccaneers vs. Lions prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Buccaneers vs. Lions prediction

Buccaneers +6.5 (-102 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

When the Bucs were dealing at +6 earlier this week, I recommended waiting on this bet amid signs of a pending market move. Sure enough, Tampa Bay is catching 6.5 points heading into the weekend, and I'm personally holding off a bit longer for the outside chance of grabbing +7.

Editor's note: The current spread has bounced back to +6 as of game day.

Even at this number, though, it's my favorite side bet of the week and might be the best price we get before kickoff.

It's not surprising the Lions are such a trendy pick amid all the feel-good vibes surrounding Dan Campbell and his resurgent group. But this is also a brutal matchup for Detroit, which fielded arguably the NFL's worst secondary during the regular season and was torched for 367 passing yards over Wild Card Weekend.

This Buccaneers' offense is built to exploit that weakness, as we saw last week when Baker Mayfield went off for 337 yards and three scores against a comparably inept Philadelphia Eagles defense. The most significant difference with this matchup is the Lions' elite run defense, but Tampa Bay uses top back Rachaad White far more as a complement to the passing game than a featured runner.

Conversely, Detroit's offense is at its best when pounding the rock and giving Jared Goff a clean pocket to throw from. That'll be tough to pull off against a Buccaneers defense that ranks among the NFL's best against the run and blitzes with reckless abandon, forcing Goff into a situation that's led to spectacular failure.

A raucous crowd supercharged the Lions last week during the team's first home playoff game in 30 years. But Detroit's issues on both ends were still exposed during that narrow win. Tampa Bay is the perfect team to take advantage, and this inflated spread simply doesn't reflect that reality.

Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+106 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Earlier this week I recommended betting on Mayfield to go Over 241.5 passing yards as one of my only five-star endorsements for the Divisional Round. That total has since shot up by 20 yards across our best sportsbooks, so I sincerely hope you joined me in betting it at such a laughably low opening number.

If not, don't worry - I'm just as gung-ho about the plus-money value on this prop, too.

Incredibly, the fine folks at BetRivers are hanging +106 odds on a bet that's dealing at a near-consensus -110 elsewhere, which is reason enough to jump all over this. The other reason is the screaming mismatch I've highlighted above between the Bucs' passing attack and the Lions' woeful secondary.

It's not like this number is out of reach for Mayfield, who threw three touchdown passes during the Wild Card Round and has finished with multiple-score games in five of his last six matchups and 11 of 18 starts overall. His odds to throw three TDs on Sunday (+410 via BetRivers) are even compelling, but I'm especially bullish on this misaligned price in a stellar matchup.

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Buccaneers vs. Lions best odds

DraftKings (-102)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Buccaneers +6.5Buccaneers +6.5Buccaneers +6.5Buccaneers +6.5Buccaneers +6.5
-102-110-110-110-110

After dealing at a consensus +6 earlier in the week, the Buccaneers are trading at +6.5 across all of our best sports betting sites, and four are offering identical -110 odds.

The lone outlier is DraftKings, which is hanging attractive -102 odds on Tampa Bay for a number that's already too high. Those skewed odds have me wondering if DraftKings (or another book) might be on the verge of moving to +7, but this price is still worth betting either way.

With the market aligned on the point spread itself, it's worth checking out our best sportsbook promos to see which bonuses are available to maximize your wager ahead of the NFL's Divisional Round.

Buccaneers vs. Lions odds

Buccaneers vs. Lions odds analysis

After scoring a blowout win as 3-point home underdogs on Monday, the Buccaneers opened as even bigger underdogs against the Lions, with all five of our best sports betting apps hanging Tampa Bay +6 on Monday night.

The market quickly moved in favor of the Lions, who are trading at -6.5 across the market. DraftKings is offering that number with -102 odds on the Buccaneers, which is why we'd recommend placing a bet there if you like the underdogs on Sunday.

The total has barely moved since opening at 48.5, with four of our five best live betting sites shifting that up to 49 entering the weekend. The odd book out is FanDuel, which is stuck at 48.5. That's where we'd recommend betting the Over if you're so inclined, though we prefer to attack the spread and prop markets in this one.

Buccaneers vs. Lions game info

  • When: Sunday, Jan. 21 at 3 p.m. ET
  • Where: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
  • How to watch: NBC
  • Weather: Indoors

Buccaneers-Lions prediction made Friday at 2 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart
C Jackson Cowart is an award-winning sports writer, reporter, and editor with nearly a decade of experience in the industry, with previous stops at theScore, Action Network, Forbes, and ESPN before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's written about sports betting for the last five years, with a specialty in NFL, NBA, MLB, and collegiate futures markets and a weakness for novelty props and betting on the eventual runner-up. He's also an avid fantasy sports manager and commissioner and runs a sports card business on the side. He's a fiercely proud Oregon native and UNC alumnus, and he can't seem to stop betting on Ben Simmons to win MVP.