Skip to main content

Brock Purdy NFL Player Props, Odds Divisional Round: Predictions for Packers vs. 49ers

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 20, 2024 12:06 PM EST • 4 min 2 sec read.

Brock Purdy #13 of the San Francisco 49ers looks to pass during the second quarter as we look at our best Brock Purdy NFL player props for the Packers vs. 49ers Divisional Round
Brock Purdy #13 of the San Francisco 49ers looks to pass during the second quarter of a game against the Washington Commanders at FedExField on December 31, 2023 in Landover, Maryland. Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images via AFP.

Quarterback Brock Purdy will lead the NFC favorite San Francisco 49ers against the No. 7 seed Green Bay Packers, and we're analyzing our best Brock Purdy NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds.

Brock Purdy stands out among the eight remaining playoff starting quarterbacks as the only one who wasn't a first-round draft pick, yet his standout season is expected to earn him MVP votes. Purdy played a pivotal role in leading the 49ers to a 12-5 record and securing the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

However, San Francisco lost two straight home games to close out the season, the first time it suffered that since 2021. Despite that, the 49ers have the shortest Super Bowl odds; if you want to take a closer look at the big game, check out our Super Bowl predictions.

Purdy is up against a Packers team that achieved a historic feat by becoming the first No. 7 seed to win a playoff game. Quarterback Jordan Love also became the first quarterback in franchise history to secure a playoff win in his rookie season.

Our Philip Wood looks more at what we should expect from Purdy's counterpart in his Jordan Love NFL player props.

To accompany our NFL Divisional Round predictions, our Packers vs. 49ers prediction, and our Christian McCaffrey NFL player props, here are our best Brock Purdy NFL player prop predictions for the Packers vs. 49ers Divisional Round matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Brock Purdy NFL player prop predictions for the Divisional Round

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

Brock Purdy player props

Brock Purdy Under 264.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Purdy was in the MVP conversation for much of the regular season after leading the league in yards per attempt (9.6), yards per dropback (8.8), yards per completion (13.9), EPA per dropback (0.26), and throwing for a franchise record for passing yards in a season (4,280). He has thrown for 265-plus yards in eight of 16 starts this season — but none of the last three — and the projected weather in San Francisco on Saturday night suggests head coach Kyle Shanahan should lean more heavily on the running game.

There is an 80% chance of rain in the Bay Area on Saturday night, with wind gusts up to 15 mph. Purdy had one of his worst games in a rain-soaked regular season game at Cleveland, averaging a season-low 4.6 yards per attempt and posting his second-lowest QBR (38.7) of the season. 

This is our most confident five-star play, as San Francisco had an NFL-best 74 running plays of 10-plus yards, and Green Bay’s defense ranks 29th in rushing yards allowed after first contact (906) and 23rd in yards per rush (4.4), per ESPN’s Stephen Holder. Thus, we expect the 49ers to lean on the running game, especially with running back Christian McCaffrey healthy, which will significantly lower Purdy’s ceiling for passing yards. 

Our other best sportsbooks with an O/U of 264.5 have the Under juiced to -115 or higher, while FanDuel offers a slightly worse number of 263.5.

Brock Purdy Over 0.5 interceptions (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Green Bay did many things right last week against Dallas, but the game was more-or-less salted away early after a second-quarter pick-six of Dak Prescott, one of two interceptions the Packers had on the day. 

For as much as Purdy has done right this season, he has also committed 13 turnovers, 11 of them via interceptions. Green Bay has scored 30-plus points in three of the previous four weeks, so the Packers will likely keep enough game pressure on San Francisco to force Purdy into some errant throws. The Packers rank ninth in sack percentage and sixth in pressure percentage, per SportRadar, and Purdy has been picked off in six of his previous 11 games, making the cheap -105 odds for him to throw at least one interception at BetMGM seem like a steal. 

The Over on 0.5 interceptions is juiced as high as -114 at BetRivers, so Over backers should be sure to use our BetMGM bonus code: SBRBONUS!

Brock Purdy Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+165 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Purdy has -177 odds to throw more passing touchdowns in this game than Jordan Love, which seems like lofty odds considering Love has 21 touchdown passes in his previous eight games. However, we cannot help but take a stab with a three-star play that Purdy will be held to one or fewer passing touchdowns despite him becoming the first 49ers quarterback to throw 30-plus touchdown passes (31) since 2001.

Even though Purdy left last year’s NFC Championship Game early with an elbow injury, he has not thrown a single touchdown pass in his previous two playoff games. And while the 49ers have the No. 1 passing offense and rank No. 1 in EPA per play (0.16 better than the No. 2 team), they also love to run the ball when close to the goal line. McCaffrey had at least one rushing touchdown in 11 of 16 games, and Elijah Mitchell added a rushing touchdown in each of the final two weeks of the regular season.

This may seem like a bet designed to double down on the Under on Purdy’s passing yards prop, but it may be the smart play, as the game script could cause Purdy to throw even less late (San Francisco is a 10-point favorite); especially if the 49ers build their lead by running the football. FanDuel has the shortest odds for this market at +146, so the +165 odds at bet365 are a steal in comparison.

Also, bet365 is offering $25 in bonus bets if you wager $50 on NFL SGPs Saturday. Offer excludes Ontario.  

Brock Purdy player prop picks made Thursday at 6:31 a.m. ET.

Check out our best NFL betting sites:

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Related pages

Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.