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Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs scrambles ahead of our Week 12 NFL predictions for Chiefs vs. Raiders
Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs scrambles with the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles in the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on November 20, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images/AFP

Our Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds at our NFL prop betting sites are for the Chiefs to stick it to a division rival--but will they need to throw much to do it?

After a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football, the Kansas City Chiefs are aiming for a rebound performance as they face one of their division rivals from the AFC West in Week 12.

Against a vulnerable Las Vegas Raiders run defense, it's uncertain whether relying on the passing game will be necessary for the Chiefs to handle their business.

Check out our NFL Week 12 predictions and NFL Week 12 player props to accompany our best Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions for the Chiefs vs. Raiders Week 12 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions for Week 12

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Patrick Mahomes player props

Mahomes Under 260.5 passing yards (+100 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Although I believe in Patrick Mahomes’ ability to bounce back after a loss, I view the Chiefs’ rushing attack as the key against a Las Vegas rushing defense that has allowed 132.3 rushing yards per game this season.

Statistically, it’s a tougher sell on the passing game in this matchup. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t cleared a 260.5-yard passing mark in any of his last three games, as the Kansas City offense has struggled with efficiency in the receiving corps.

Then there’s factoring in the opponent. The Raiders have allowed only 210.0 passing yards per game on average this season, which ranks a respectable 11th in the league. There’s a chance that the rivalry aspect causes Andy Reid to aim for style points in this one, but plenty of Isiah Pacheco is the best way to do that. Caesars offers the best odds (+100) on Under 260.5 passing yards, while bet365 is another acceptable value at -110.

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Mahomes Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+175 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

We’re not as comfortable with this one because it’s clear that Mahomes will have some opportunities to contribute touchdowns in a game where double digits favor the Chiefs. But from a value standpoint, the Under is still an attractive option due to the plus-money odds and the run-heavy script that we project from the Chiefs.

The Raiders have allowed an average of 1.2 passing touchdowns per game and have been even better in the category at home, allowing just 0.6 passing touchdowns per home game this season. If the Chiefs can run successfully in the red zone early, they can stick with this script to cash this juicy Under.

DraftKings offers Under 1.5 passing touchdowns at +165, but you can gain even better value by betting on this prop at bet365 (+175).

DraftKings

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Mahomes longest completion Over 36.5 yards (-113 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Although we don’t expect it to happen regularly throughout the game, it does feel like there will be a play-action opportunity for Mahomes to get one over on the Raider defense at least once in this game.

Mahomes has had five games this season in which his longest competition cleared 36.5 yards. Because of the degree to which I’m expecting the Chiefs to run the football, there should be one play in which Mahomes can connect with Justin Watson or Marquez Valdes-Scantling on a play-action deep shot.

DraftKings lists the line at 36.5 yards, which is identical to the Caesars line. However, we prefer the slight odds advantage at Caesars, as they have the prop at -113 odds on Over, which compared favorably to the -115 odds posted at DraftKings.

Patrick Mahomes player prop picks made 11/25/2023 at 2:00 p.m. ET.

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