NFL Odds & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Wild Card Weekend

We've highlighted the odds and our NFL best bets for Wild Card Weekend.

Mike Spector

Last updated: January 14, 2023 7:47 AM EST • 5 min read

All six of this weekend's wild-card round games are rematches of games played in the regular season. Read on for our NFL best bets of Wild Card Weekend based on the top NFL odds.

San Francisco’s Brock Purdy looks to keep his winning streak going to start his career, while another rookie quarterback, Miami’s Skylar Thompson, is also in line to make his first playoff start.

Meanwhile, Tom Brady is no stranger to postseason football, as he has numerous playoff records for quarterbacks. However, he finds himself a home underdog in the playoffs for just the second time, if you counted when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers played in Raymond James Stadium in the Super Bowl.

Here are our best NFL bets for Wild Card Weekend (odds via WynnBet, BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top NFL picks for Wild Card Weekend.

NFL Schedule and Odds for Wild Card Weekend

(odds via Caesars)

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (-9)
Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills (-13.5)
New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5)
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Check out our best Super Bowl odds and Super Bowl MVP odds.

NFL Best Bets for Wild Card Weekend

Spread: Seahawks +10 (-110 via Caesars) vs. 49ers
Total: Ravens-Bengals Under 40.5 (-110 via WynnBet)
Upset: Jaguars (+120 via BetMGM) vs. Chargers
Player Prop: Daniel Jones Over 250+ alternate passing yards (+115 via DraftKings)

Week 18 NFL Top Picks

Spread: Seahawks +10 vs. 49ers (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

San Francisco is in the midst of the NFL’s longest active winning streak (10 games) entering the playoffs, which is also the franchise’s longest since 1997. In addition, Purdy became the third rookie quarterback to win his first five starts. And considering the 49ers beat the Seahawks by a combined 48-20 this year, it's not hard to see why most bettors (64%) have backed the favorites.

Check out our Seahawks vs. 49ers pick, Seahawks vs. 49ers SGP picks, and Christian McCaffrey player prop picks.

However, this is a three-star play, as the last 15 teams that entered the playoffs on a double-digit winning streak are under .500 (7-8 SU) and have covered just two of the 15 games. In addition, opponents that have lost twice to a team in the regular season have beaten them seven out of 19 times in the third meeting in the playoffs.

Seattle is only a play at double digits or higher, as we would not feel as comfortable getting +9.5 points or fewer and that is where the market has settled. Since Caesars was one of the lone sportsbooks offering +10, so we headed there for this wager and made it a strong four-star play.

Total: Ravens-Bengals Under 40.5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has been ruled out against the Cincinnati Bengals, and backup quarterback Tyler Huntley just resumed throwing in practice. However, while the point spread value on the Bengals has diminished (they moved from -6.5 to -9.5), the Under still has excellent value.

Check out our Ravens vs. Bengals pick.

We're making the Under a four-star play, given how well Baltimore’s defense has played since linebacker Roquan Smith debuted with the team in Week 9. Before acquiring Smith, Baltimore ranked 20th in points per game, 24th in yards per game, 14th in yards per rush, and 19th in QBR. After the Smith trade, the Ravens rank second in scoring defense, third in yards per game, fourth in yards per rush, and eighth in QBR. In addition, the Ravens have averaged 13 points per game in the five games Jackson has missed.

Upset: Jaguars vs. Chargers (+120) ⭐⭐⭐

We're not backing this pick due to Jacksonville’s dominant 38-10 road win against Los Angeles this year, as the Chargers were without wideout Keenan Allen and running back Austin Ekeler only had four carries. However, this is a three-star play because of how well Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence has played against man coverage and that the Jaguars defense has allowed 22 points in the last three games.

When facing man coverage since Week 9 (per ESPN Analytics), Lawrence has the second-best completion percentage (68%), third-best QBR (83), and the fifth-most passing touchdowns (11). That's significant because the Chargers play man coverage at the highest rate in the league (60%).

BetMGM, DraftKings, and BetRivers offer the same +120 odds.

Check out our Chargers vs. Jaguars pick, Chargers vs. Jaguars SGP picks, and Justin Herbert vs. Trevor Lawrence player prop picks.

Player Prop: Daniel Jones Over 250+ passing yards vs. Vikings (+115) ⭐⭐⭐

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones’ O/U for passing yards ranges from 237.5 at BetRivers to 245.5 at PointsBet. Thus, the fact that we're getting plus-money odds to go up less than nine yards on this total at DraftKings is appealing.

On play-action passes this season, Jones ranks seventh in QBR (76), second in completion percentage (75%), and tied for 10th in passing touchdowns (seven). This is significant as Minnesota’s defense ranks 28th in opposing QBR (75) on play-action passes. In addition, this is a three-star play because Jones tied a career-high in passing yards (141) when targeting the slot in Week 16 against the Vikings and had an 89 QBR while completing 12-of-15 of those passes.

Check out our Giants vs. Vikings pick.

NFL best bets made 1/13/2022 at 6:29 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”