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Justin Herbert vs. Trevor Lawrence Player Prop Picks, Predictions Wild Card Weekend: QBs Make Playoff Debuts

Philip Wood

Last Updated: January 14, 2023 6:20 AM EST • 3 min 7 sec read.

Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars attempts a pass during the first half against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on September 25, 2022 in Inglewood, California.
Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars attempts a pass during the first half against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on September 25, 2022 in Inglewood, California. Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images/AFP

Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence will make their postseason debuts while opposing each other on Wild Card Weekend. Here are our best Justin Herbert vs. Trevor Lawrence player prop picks based on the top NFL odds. Check out all of our NFL best bets.

After starting the season 4-8, Trevor Lawrence led the Jacksonville Jaguars on a five-game winning streak to finish the regular season and clinch the AFC South title. Now the Jags will host the Los Angeles Chargers on Wild Card Weekend. When these two teams met in Week 3, Jacksonville won 38-10 in LA.

Check out our Chargers vs. Jaguars pick and Chargers vs. Jaguars SGP picks.

The Chargers started the season 5-5, but they were able to win five of the final six games that Justin Herbert played the entirety of to get to 10-7 and earn their first postseason berth since 2018.

Here are our best Justin Herbert vs. Trevor Lawrence player prop picks for the Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Wild Card Weekend matchup (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our all of our top NFL picks for Wild Card Weekend, along with our Seahawks vs. 49ers pick, Dolphins vs. Bills pick, Giants vs. Vikings pick, and Ravens vs. Bengals pick.

Justin Herbert vs. Trevor Lawrence Player Prop Picks for Wild Card Weekend

  • Justin Herbert -39.5 Passing Yards vs. Trevor Lawrence (-115 via DraftKings Sportsbook) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence Under 3.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125 via DraftKings Sportsbook) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Justin Herbert Over 25 Completions + Trevor Lawrence Over 199.5 Passing Yards (-125 via DraftKings Sportsbook) ⭐⭐⭐

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds

Justin Herbert vs. Trevor Lawrence Player Props

Justin Herbert -39.5 passing yards vs. Trevor Lawrence (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Back when these teams met in Week 3, Lawrence threw for 262 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He still threw for 35 yards less than Herbert in that game. While this spread may seem like a lot, the way to beat the Chargers is to run the ball down their throat. The Chargers are 28th in the league in rush yards allowed. They’re seventh in the league in passing yards against.

Assuming the Jaguars look to run the ball, Herbert has a huge advantage over Lawrence in this game. The Chargers are putting up the second-most passing attempts per game this season, averaging 41.8 attempts per game. Defensively, they’re allowing opponents to put up the third-fewest passing attempts per game. With the Chargers already averaging 37 more passing yards per game than the Jaguars, this one is a no-brainer.

Check out our Christian McCaffrey prop picks, NFL best bets, Wild Card Weekend against the spread power rankings, NFL upset picks for the first round of the playoffs, and Wild Card Weekend odds and lines.

Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence Under 3.5 passing touchdowns (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Trevor Lawrence has exactly one touchdown pass in his last three games. The Jaguars have outscored opponents 70-22 in those three contests. Jacksonville doesn't need Lawrence to light up the scoreboard in order for them to win. During that same stretch, the Jaguars ran for four touchdowns.

For this total to go over, Herbert would likely have to throw for three touchdowns. He has not done that in his last six games, and he has only done that three times all season. If the Over was more of a longshot, then perhaps there would be value in taking the Over and hoping for an outlier game for both quarterbacks, but as it stands, the Under is the best play.

Justin Herbert Over 25 completions + Trevor Lawrence Over 199.5 passing yards (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

For the last prop, we’re parlaying two lines with odds at -350 and -210 to give us a much more affordable -125. While the Jaguars’ game plan should be focused on the run, Lawrence has thrown for at least 200 yards in 12 of his 17 games this season. If the Jaguars fall behind, then Lawrence will definitely go Over. But even if they don’t, this is a very manageable number for him.

Herbert has 25 completions in 12 of his 17 games this season. In each of the last two games where he failed to complete at least 25 passes, the Chargers won by at least 17. That’s unlikely to be the case this week against the red-hot Jaguars. The Chargers’ offense runs through Herbert, which will allow him to complete closer to 30 passes in this game.

Justin Herbert vs. Trevor Lawrence player prop picks made 01/13/2023 at 12:10 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil is a Sports Betting Analyst for Sportsbook Review and BettingPros.com, specializing in NFL and college football. He previously covered college football and college basketball for CanesInsight.com, where he also hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast. Phil is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is if a line doesn't make sense, just assume that Vegas knows something you don't. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. Some would call him a frontrunner for his love of the Yankees and the Celtics, but he's also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and will never forgive the refs for the blown pass interference call against the Cowboys in 2015.