Christian McCaffrey Player Prop Picks, Predictions Wild Card Week: Can 49ers RB Exploit Seahawks?
Star running back Christian McCaffrey and the San Francisco 49ers will start their playoff run with a wild-card matchup against NFC West rivals, the Seattle Seahawks. Read on for our Christian McCaffrey prop picks as the 49ers take on the Seahawks on Wild Card Weekend.
They say it is hard to beat a team thrice in one season, and the No. 7-seeded Seattle Seahawks are desperately hoping that’s true ahead of their matchup with the No. 2 seed in the Wild Card Round. The 49ers won both regular-season meetings by a combined score of 48-20.
McCaffrey, who was traded to the 49ers midseason, wasn’t there for the first meeting, but his team is nearly a double-digit favorite in this one. That should lead to an advantageous game script for the star back, but are we taking the bait on his player props?
Here are our best Christian McCaffrey player prop picks for the Seahawks vs. 49ers Wild Card matchup (odds via BetMGM, PointsBet, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our best Seahawks vs. 49ers pick and Seahawks vs. 49ers SGP picks, and all of our top NFL picks for Wild Card Weekend, along with our Chargers vs. Jaguars pick, Dolphins vs. Bills pick, Giants vs. Vikings pick, and Ravens vs. Bengals pick.
Christian McCaffrey Player Prop Picks for Wild Card Weekend
- Under 4.5 receptions (-105 via BetMGM)
- Under 40.5 receiving yards (-120 via PointsBet)
- Over 16.5 rush attempts (-102 via FanDuel)
Seahawks vs. 49ers Odds
Christian McCaffrey Player Props
Under 4.5 receptions vs. Seahawks (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Conventional wisdom would say to bet CMC Overs against a Seahawks team that ranks 25th in rush defense DVOA while also giving up a league-worst 7.9 yards per attempt on passes to running backs and tight ends. But that’s exactly why we are taking more Unders, as the oddsmakers know this and have shaded all these lines up.
The player prop tool at Pro Football Focus has a 13.6% edge on McCaffrey to finish Under 4.5 receptions, the best such percentage on CMC props for this game. He has cleared this mark just twice in his last five games.
Based on our projections, McCaffrey finishes with four receptions more often than he does five or more. BetMGM’s offering of -105 on the Under is too good to pass up on this four-star pick, especially since a book like Pinnacle has this priced at -127.
Check out our Justin Herbert vs. Trevor Lawrence prop picks, NFL best bets, NFL Wild Card Weekend against the spread power rankings, NFL upset picks for the first round of the playoffs, and Wild Card Weekend odds and lines.
Under 40.5 receiving yards vs. Seahawks (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Fading McCaffrey is not for the faint-hearted after he caught six of eight targets against the Seahawks on Thursday Night Football in Week 15. Yet he only turned those six catches into 30 yards, meaning this yardage prop has life even if he’s more involved than expected.
McCaffrey has recorded 41 receiving yards in a game just once over his last five outings, averaging 36.4 yards over that span. This line has moved to either 35.5 or 36.5 at the top sportsbooks. Catching this yardage total earlier in the week for the same juice and four extra yards to play with was a steal here for our second four-star bet.
Over 16.5 rush attempts vs. Seahawks (-102) ⭐⭐⭐
Are you starting to see the narrative that we have built for this game? Quarterback Brock Purdy is making his playoff debut, and it seems unlikely that the 49ers are going to ask too much of him. In addition to having a big spread, there is ample opportunity for San Francisco to lean on the ground game in Saturday’s contest.
It is a good thing the 49ers traded for a star running back this season then. McCaffrey finished with 26 carries for 108 yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks last time out. He is averaging 15.1 rush attempts over his last 10 games.
We project Over 17 rush attempts for CMC, so the -102 offering at FanDuel was an early gift. That has shifted to 17.5 at some of the top sportsbooks. FanDuel is still on 16.5, but is now -125 for the Over and this bet becomes less valuable with much higher vig.
Christian McCaffrey player prop picks made 1/13/2023 at 11 a.m. ET.
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