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Jaguars vs. Bills Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for MNF Week 3

Philip Wood

Last Updated: September 17, 2024 10:57 AM EDT • 3 min 30 sec read.

Bills Khalil Shakir is congratulated by teammates as we look at our Jaguars vs. Bills early lean & prediction.
Bills Khalil Shakir is congratulated by teammates Keon Coleman, Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown on his touchdown catch. Photo by: Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle/USA TODAY NETWORK.

The Buffalo Bills host the Jacksonville Jaguars in one of two Monday Night Football games in Week 3. After last week's performances, the Bills are the favorites by the Monday Night Football odds.

Early Jaguars vs. Bills early picks & predictions suggest that the Jaguars are in serious danger of dropping to 0-3. In a division with the Houston Texans, falling to 0-3 feels like it could remove them from the running for the AFC title. Will their desperation help them keep this game closer than it should be?

The Bills cruised in Week 2, defeating the Miami Dolphins 31-10 in a road contest. They’ve scored more than 30 points in each of their first two games. Will they have similar success against a solid defense this week?

Early betting has already moved the Week 3 odds in Buffalo's direction.

My early Jaguars vs. Bills prediction: Jaguars +5.5

NFL picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Jaguars +5.5

Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%

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The Jaguars are 0-2 to start the season, but their losses have been by five or fewer points. They’re a talented team desperate for a win and facing the Bills at a good time.

The Bills are coming off a massive win over the Dolphins. Many believed the Dolphins were the Bills' biggest competition in the AFC East before Tua Tagovailoa's injury so that big win could make this a letdown game.

Plus, the Bills are on the road to take on the Baltimore Ravens next week. The Ravens are also 0-2, but the Bills are likely to be looking ahead to that matchup with Lamar Jackson and company.

Oddsmakers know something is up, so they set this line under a touchdown. As of writing, 71% of bettors are backing the favorites. Expect that to continue as this number drifts to 6.5 by the end of the week.

While the Bills are tempting, remember that oddsmakers don’t generally throw something this obvious out there, especially in a primetime game. Just look at what happened with the Houston Texans and Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2: neither covered “obvious” spreads.

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Jaguars vs. Bills live odds

See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Week 3 game.

Moneyline

This is the best price you will get for the Bills this week. They will be a popular addition to parlays, and money will back them to win the game and cover the spread.

The Jaguars may go off at +250 or greater, which would be a great price to take a stab at the underdog. Again, desperation is real, even this early in the season.

Spread

There’s no benefit to backing one sportsbook over the other right now. That being said, this spread is going to grow, and it’s going to happen early in the week.

Keep your eyes open between now and Thursday, as you may be able to get the Bills for -6 at +100 or better or the Jaguars at +5.5 at +100 or better. Depending on your side, getting +100 is great, and the opportunity will present itself. This number won’t ever hit the key number, but it will settle around 6.5 before kickoff.

Over/Under

The total is 45.5 or 46.5 at our best sports betting sites. While the Bills have scored more than 30 points in their first two games, the Jaguars have been involved in defensive struggles.

The number should go up before kickoff because this game is in primetime, and Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence are big names. That being said, I’d take the under if it gets to 47.5 or higher.

How to watch Jaguars vs. Bills

  • When: Monday, Sept. 23
  • Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y.
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: 68 degrees, 70% chance of precipitation, wind 15 mph SE
  • Favorite: Bills (-250 via DraftKings)

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.