Dak Prescott vs. Tom Brady Player Prop Picks, Predictions for Wild Card Weekend: Experience vs. Inexperience

Check out our best Dak Prescott vs. Tom Brady player prop picks for Wild Card Weekend based on the top odds.

Mike Spector

Last updated: January 16, 2023 11:54 AM EST • 4 min read

Monday's Wild Card Weekend matchup sees Dak Prescott go toe-to-toe with Tom Brady for the second time this season as the Dallas Cowboys play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Brady will be buoyed by the return of center Ryan Jensen, who was activated off injured reserve on Monday morning. Here are our best Dak Prescott vs. Tom Brady player prop picks based on the top NFL odds.

The 8-9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the 12-5 Dallas Cowboys as the fourth playoff team this century with a sub-.500 record.

Bucs quarterback Tom Brady broke his own NFL record this season with 490 completions, while Cowboys passer Dak Prescott looks to lead the Cowboys to their first road playoff win in the last nine tries. Brady is also 35-12 in his career in the playoffs (5-1 with Tampa Bay), while Prescott is 1-3 in his playoff career. But will those lopsided records have any bearing on the head-to-head duel between these two on Monday night?

Here are our best Dak Prescott vs. Tom Brady player prop picks for the Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Wild Card Weekend matchup (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL best bets, Cowboys vs. Buccaneers picks, Cowboys vs. Buccaneers SGP picks, and Cowboys vs. Buccaneers player prop picks.

Dak Prescott vs. Tom Brady Player Prop Picks for Wild Card Weekend

Tom Brady -27.5 passing yards vs. Dak Prescott (-115 via DraftKings)
Dak Prescott more passing touchdowns than Tom Brady (+100 via DraftKings)
Tom Brady +0.5 interceptions vs. Dak Prescott (-165 via DraftKings)

Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Odds

Check out our Super Bowl odds and Super Bowl MVP odds.

Dak Prescott vs. Tom Brady Player Props

Tom Brady -27.5 passing yards vs. Dak Prescott (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

In their Week 1 meeting, Brady out-passed Prescott 212-134. That fact, along with Dak's poor momentum, is why we are comfortable making this a four-star play.

Last Sunday against the Washington Commanders, Prescott had career worsts in completion percentage (38%), off-target percentage (37%), and yards per attempt (3.5). Furthermore, the 3.5 yards per attempt were the fewest by a quarterback in any game this season with a minimum of 20 attempts.

Given his turnover issues (see our interceptions thrown wager), we expect Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy to be more conservative and lean on their two stud running backs.

Dak Prescott more passing touchdowns than Tom Brady (+100) ⭐⭐⭐

While we like Brady to throw for more yards, we expect Prescott to accumulate more touchdowns. Brady's favorite target is Mike Evans, but his poor stats when targeting him are a big reason we have this as a three-star play.

Per Next Gen Stats, when targeting Evans, there has been 2.6 average yards of separation, and Brady has a 60% completion percentage and a 6-7 TD-INT ratio. The seven interceptions are the most when targeting a single player. In addition, when pressured, Brady ranks 29th in QBR (7), 30th in off-target percentage (33%), and 31st in yards per attempt (3.3). Something has to give, as he has been pressured on 20% of dropbacks (lowest in the NFL), but Dallas has pressured quarterbacks at the league's highest rate (39%).

Brady has 25 touchdowns in 17 games, while Dak has 23 touchdowns in 12. We are riding those averages with this play.

Tom Brady +0.5 interceptions vs. Dak Prescott (-165) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Prescott is the first Cowboys quarterback with an interception in seven consecutive games since Tony Romo achieved the dubious feat in 2007-08. He has an NFL-worst 15 turnovers since Week 7 and is tied for the most interceptions in the league (15) with Houston's Davis Mills, despite playing three fewer games.

Not only has Prescott thrown interceptions in bunches, but his turnovers have also been costly, throwing three pick-sixes alone since Week 15. This is a five-star play for him to have more interceptions than Brady, who only has nine on the season, and went a stretch from Week 2 to Week 9 playing interception-free football.

Lastly, Dallas has forced opposing quarterbacks into a 12-13 TD-INT ratio in 12 games when playing on turf but allowed an 11-3 TD-INT ratio in five games on grass, which is the playing surface at Raymond James Stadium.

Dak Prescott vs. Tom Brady player prop picks made 1/15/2023 at 7:39 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”