South Dakota State vs. Iowa State Player Props & March Madness Odds: Will Cyclones Hold Mayo?
A first round meeting between the Iowa State Cyclones and South Dakota State Jackrabbits occurs at the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, as we offer our top prediction and player props based on the best March Madness odds.
The Iowa State Cyclones surprised many with their commanding performance in the Big 12 Tournament final against the Houston Cougars, securing the No. 2 seed in March Madness. They now face the No. 15 South Dakota State Jackrabbits, who enter the matchup as significant underdogs. The game will tip off Thursday at 7:35 p.m. ET on truTV.
In their Big 12 finals showdown, the Cyclones limited the Cougars to a mere 41 points, marking one of the lowest scores by the nation's top-ranked team since the inception of the AP Poll nearly a century ago. Iowa State aims to maintain this defensive prowess against the Jackrabbits, who ride an impressive eight-game win streak and feature a dynamic scorer in guard Zeke Mayo.
As part of our March Madness predictions, here is our best South Dakota State vs. Iowa State player prop and college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
South Dakota State vs. Iowa State odds
South Dakota State (15) vs. Iowa State (2) prediction: East Region
Zeke Mayo Under 14.5 points ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +100 via DraftKings
If the Jackrabbits hope to pull off the upset on Thursday, they'll need a massive game from Mayo (18.8 PPG), the Summit League Player of the Year and leading scorer for South Dakota State. I just don't buy that happening.
That isn't intended as a slight against Mayo, who scored 15-plus in 25 of 34 games for the Jackrabbits. But he scored fewer than 20 points in each of his last four games, and he didn't make a single shot inside the arc and just one at the free-throw line in the conference tournament final against Denver.
That lack of aggressiveness simply won't fly against Iowa State, which boasts the No. 1 defense by adjusted efficiency in the entire country. The Cyclones also force turnovers at the nation's second-highest rate (25.7%) - an issue for Mayo, whose turnover rate (18.7%) ranked 34th among 180 players with a usage rate of 27%.
In his only other NCAA Tournament game, Mayo scored 11 points on 3-for-9 shooting against a Providence defense that wasn't nearly as stingy as Iowa State's. There's a chance he forces the issue in garbage time, which is always the risk you run betting player props in a potential blowout, but that isn't enough to shy away from this bet at even money.
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South Dakota State vs. Iowa State best odds
DraftKings (+100)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | bet365 | BetRivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 14.5 | Under 14.5 | Under 14.5 | Under 14.5 |
| +100 | -114 | -105 | -108 |
Four of our best sportsbooks are offering player props for this game, and all have Mayo tabbed for O/U 14.5 points on Thursday. Of that group, only DraftKings is offering even money or better on the Jackrabbits star falling below that mark.
We'll gladly take those odds in perhaps the toughest matchup of Mayo's life, which comes after a scoring swoon to end the year. I'd also recommend checking out our best sportsbook promos to maximize any potential bonus offers for March Madness.
South Dakota State vs. Iowa State spread & Over/Under analysis
We haven't seen a ton of movement on the point spread for this game, which sits between -16 and -17 in favor of Iowa State across our best sports betting sites after opening in that range on Sunday.
We've seen much more action on the total, which dipped as low as 132.5 but was trading as high as 136 at Caesars as of Monday. The rest of our best live betting sites were sitting at 135.5 with a rogue 134.5 at FanDuel, which is the best shop for those looking to back the Over.
South Dakota State vs. Iowa State game info
- When: Thursday, March 21
- Tip-off: 7:35 p.m. ET
- Where: CHI Health Center Omaha, Omaha, Neb.
- How to watch: truTV
South Dakota State-Iowa State prediction made Monday at 8 p.m. ET.
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