NC State vs. Duke Prediction, Pick & Odds: ACC Tournament
Duke begins ACC Tournament play Thursday against in-state rival NC State, as we offer our best NC State vs. Duke prediction based on the best college basketball odds.
If you only looked at the ACC Tournament odds entering the week, you would think a looming rematch between Duke and North Carolina was inevitable. Before that happens, though, the Blue Devils need to dispatch another in-state rival along the way.
Jon Scheyer's group opens its postseason Thursday with a showdown against NC State, which scored wins over Louisville and Syracuse to earn a spot in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals. The latter came after the Wolfpack fell behind in the second half before ripping off a 21-4 run in an eventual blowout.
They'll need that sort of effort to outlast the Blue Devils, who have lost just four games since early December and appear to be hitting their stride at the right time.
As part of our college basketball player props and best bets for Thursday, here is our best NC State vs. Duke prediction and our college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NC State vs. Duke prediction
Duke -10.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -120 via FanDuel
You don't need a vivid imagination to predict what might happen when Duke faces NC State in the ACC quarterfinals. You only need to look back 10 days for a preview of what's to come Thursday when they meet for a second time this season.
When these teams faced off in Raleigh on March 4, NC State jumped to a 9-0 lead and enjoyed a season-best performance from mountainous center D.J. Burns (27 points). Neither was enough to survive the inevitable cascade from Duke, which erased that early deficit to win by 15 eventually.
That came even with a quiet game from Blue Devils star Kyle Filipowski (nine points), who took just six shots and didn't attempt a free throw. He didn't need to, as secondary stars Jeremy Roach (21 points) and Jared McCain (16) did the heavy lifting in that blowout win.
I'd expect a more inspired effort Thursday from Filipowski, who scored 19 points in the second half of Duke's last game against North Carolina and seems all healed up from the court storming heard 'round the world. This feels like a potential statement game from him and the Blue Devils, especially with five days' rest against a team coming off back-to-back comeback victories.
Those two wins snapped a four-game losing streak for NC State, which had dropped 10 of 14 games entering the ACC Tournament. And while only one of those losses came by double digits, that came against Duke in its second-biggest loss of the season. Don't be surprised to see a repeat performance on Thursday.
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NC State vs. Duke best odds
FanDuel (-120)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke -11 | Duke -10.5 | Duke -11.5 | Duke -11.5 | Duke -11.5 |
| -112 | -120 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Our best sports betting sites are all over the place on this game, offering Duke as a favorite of anywhere between 10.5 to 11.5 points.
While DraftKings is offering -11 at a slightly cheaper price, I'd recommend backing the Blue Devils at -10.5 (-120) for a little added security on your wager. That said, your tolerance for extra risk vs. extra points is a personal preference in many ways - so long as you avoid those three shops offering -11.5 at -110 odds.
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NC State vs. Duke odds
NC State vs. Duke odds analysis
Duke opened as a 9.5-point favorite in Thursday's matchup with NC State in the ACC Tournament, but that quickly moved to -10.5 across the board and as short as -11.5 at some shops. That seems like an appropriate move after the Blue Devils wiped the floor with the Wolfpack less than two weeks ago.
The total has also moved from as high as 150.5 to as low as 146, which is still three points higher than the combined score (143) when these teams met on March 4. We don't have a strong lean on the total, but it'd be tough to fade these offenses after how they've looked as of late.
NC State vs. Duke game info
- When: Thursday, March 14 at 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
- How to watch: ESPN
NC State-Duke prediction made Thursday at 1:30 p.m. ET.
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