Michigan State vs. UNC Expert Pick, Prediction for Round 2

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: March 23, 2024 4:47 PM EDT • 2 min 52 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

The top-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels face the ninth-seeded Michigan State Spartans in the second round of the West Region on Saturday, as we offer our best Michigan State vs. UNC expert pick and prediction based on the best March Madness odds.

The No. 1 seed North Carolina Tar Heels (28-7) and No. 9 seed Michigan State Spartans (20-14) meet in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 15 years, when they sparred in the 2009 title game. Tom Izzo and Co. will be out for March Madness revenge in Saturday's second-round matchup, scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on CBS from the Spectrum Center in Charlotte.

The Tar Heels boast a 5-0 all-time record over the Spartans in the Big Dance - including a win in the 2009 national title in their last meeting - and they enter Saturday as the betting favorite across all of our best sports betting sites. Yet Michigan State has clearly earned oddsmakers' respect after a dominant win over Mississippi State in the first round.

As part of our March Madness predictions, here is our best Michigan State vs. UNC expert pick (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Michigan State vs. UNC odds

Michigan State (9) vs. UNC (1) expert pick: West Region

Michigan State +3.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Odds: -105 via Betway

At first glance, this seems like too lean of a line for UNC, which enters Saturday as the only favorite laying fewer than four points. Yet there's a reason the betting market is so high on Michigan State, which boasts the better coach and arguably the more talented roster ahead of this second-round clash.

The Spartans entered the season as the No. 4 team in the AP Poll after securing a top-five recruiting class to complement a senior-heavy lineup. Then they stumbled out of the gates while losing five of their first nine games. They also dropped five of their final seven matchups of the season.

All of that spelled an unfortunate first-round draw for No. 8 seed Mississippi State, which was subsequently blown out by a Michigan State team with more talent than its No. 9 seed would suggest. The Spartans are seemingly peaking in March, which is nothing new for an Izzo-coached squad.

Meanwhile, North Carolina didn't play nearly as well as its 28-point margin might suggest during Thursday's first-round win over Wagner, the worst team in the entire tournament. That's not a great sign for a squad that let go of the rope against NC State in the ACC Tournament final and has been prone to playing down to its opponent all season long.

KenPom - which tends to significantly influence betting lines - projects a 72-69 win for the Tar Heels, even as the market holds firm at a 3.5-point spread. That spells value on the underdog Spartans, whose season-long performance doesn't reflect how dangerous they can be over 40 minutes.

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Michigan State vs. UNC spread & Over/Under analysis

North Carolina opened as a 3.5-point favorite over Michigan State after both teams earned blowout first-round wins. That line may seem short when comparing the seeds for these two teams. But don't sleep on the Spartans, who trot out arguably the more talented roster and the superior coach in March.

The total is settling at 140.5 ahead of this one, which is the second-lowest on the board for Saturday's second-round action. That makes sense, as both of these teams feature top-10 defenses with offenses that often struggle to keep pace.

Michigan State vs. UNC game info

When: Saturday, March 23
Tip-off: 5:30 p.m. ET
Where: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, N.C.
How to watch: CBS

Michigan State-UNC prediction made Friday at 1:30 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart

C Jackson Cowart is a publishing editor and lead writer for Sportsbook Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, "C-Jax" has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels' championship run through the NCAA men's basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he's played a key role in Sportsbook Review's coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he's cashed some big bets over the years -- including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) -- he's still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed "process over results" bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He's written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn't forgiven his "inside source" for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.