Best March Madness Survivor Pool Picks Today: Ranking Every NCAA Tournament Team on Day 4

While March Madness continues to be about as chalky as anyone could have ever imagined, the first day of the second round surely led to a handful of survivor pool exits.

Three top four seeds that were favorites entering Day 3 went down - St. John's, Wisconsin, and Texas A&M - while a handful of others played games that were far too close for stretches, making our March Madness survivor pool picks today even more important with the Sweet 16 around the corner.

👉 Want to win your March Madness survivor pool? We broke down the survivor pool basics and offered our best survivor pool tips & strategy.

🎯 Best March Madness survivor pool picks today: NCAA Tournament Day 4

👉 Looking for more March Madness action? Check out the rest of our March Madness second-round expert picks as part of our March Madness predictions.

✅ Best survivor pool pick today: Iowa State

I had St. John's slotted as my best pick and Tennessee as my safest in yesterday's survivor pool picks, so for all of our sakes hopefully you took the Volunteers.

I bring up the Johnnies and their shooting woes as a reason to consider backing my safest over my best pick from this point forward because surviving and advancing is now more important than getting too caught up in big-picture picks.

With that said, Iowa State and Maryland represent the best plays today when attacking this from a long-term perspective (I've slotted the Cyclones ahead simply because I already took the Terrapins on Day 2 of March Madness). While T.J. Otzelberger's team is without Keshon Gilbert and struggled down the stretch, ISU still pounded Lipscomb in the first round.

Now the Cyclones take on an Ole Miss team that's been hanging on by its teeth, with five losses in its last nine games, three of which by one possession. The Rebels also almost blew a massive lead against North Carolina on Friday, and this Iowa State team is much better with a defense led by Tamin Lipsey that's eighth in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom.

📊 Iowa State's odds to beat Ole Miss: -227 via Caesars | Implied probability: 69.42%

🛡️ Safest survivor pool pick today: Michigan State

Obviously, nobody loves burning top two seeds on the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. However, because March Madness has been dominated by higher seeded teams from high-major conferences, there are fewer obvious early picks than normal.

So, if you're just trying to hold on and make it to the Sweet 16, Michigan State is the play, even as one of the top eight March Madness odds contenders - similarly to Tennessee yesterday.

The Spartans take on one of the few teams, Richard Pitino's New Mexico squad, that managed a first-round upset, which could find itself in similar trouble as his father's St. John's program. The Lobos lean on quality defense and guard Donovan Dent and big Nelly Junior Joseph to do most of their scoring but aren't much of a threat from behind the arc.

Michigan State has one of the best defenses in the country - fifth in adjusted efficiency - and has one of the top March Madness NBA draft prospects in Jase Richardson. The Spartans are basically a better and more athletic version of New Mexico, and I'm putting my trust in Tom Izzo ... he's Mr. March after all.

📊 Michigan State's odds to beat New Mexico: -325 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 76.47%

⚠️ Riskiest survivor pool pick today: Kentucky

First of all, backing Kentucky is a risk because our March Madness betting sites actually have Illinois favored to beat the Wildcats. However, I think Mark Pope's team can ride the momentum of its win over Troy and pull out the W against an Illinois team that's among the most polarizing.

The Fighting Illini are one of just three teams ranked top 20 by KenPom, but received worse than a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The other two are Gonzaga and Missouri, both of whom have already been eliminated. So, while Kentucky is slotted one spot behind Illinois by KenPom, the Illini have been one of the biggest underachievers this season.

Even without Jaxson Robinson and with Lamont Butler not playing his best coming off injury, Kentucky has too much firepower for this Illinois defense. Otega Oweh and and Amari Williams can carry the Wildcats against an Illini team that lives and dies by freshman Kasparas Jakucionis.

📊 Kentucky's odds to beat Illinois: +116 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 46.30%

🚫 Popular March Madness survivor pool picks to avoid today

❌ Worst survivor pool pick today: Duke

If you can make it into the Sweet 16 with all the No. 1 seeds in your holster, then you're in pretty good shape with your March Madness survivor pool picks. With how dominant Duke has been, the Blue Devils are a team you cannot be wasting until at least the Elite Eight.

Against a Baylor team that has a potential top-five pick in VJ Edgecombe, the Blue Devils are a double-digit favorite across our best sports betting sites after thrashing Mount St. Mary's in the opening round. That win saw Tyrese Proctor, Caleb Foster, and Khaman Maluach all hit double digits, flashing how deep Jon Scheyer's team is this year.

Even with Wooden Award odds contender Cooper Flagg playing just 22 minutes and future lottery pick Kon Knueppel taking only five shots, Duke steamrolled. They'll likely do so again today, but don't give in to temptation; save the Devils for a later round.

📊 Duke's odds to beat Baylor: -800 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 88.89%

⛔ Other survivor pool picks to avoid today

• For the same reason you can't take Duke this early, you cannot burn Florida with the Gators having the shortest Final Four odds in the country and being a team you'll need later
• Although Alabama is a No. 2 seed that you'll likely prefer to have next weekend, the Crimson Tide are also an upset candidate against a tough Saint Mary's defense after how disheveled they looked against Robert Morris
• While there's no reason to doubt Arizona based on its first round win over Akron, the Wildcats have disappointed in the NCAA Tournament under Tommy Lloyd and take on an underrated Oregon squad in a Pac-12 reunion
• It's just hard to trust Illinois with how inconsistent the Illini have been this season. They lost by 43 points to Duke a few weeks ago alongside double-digit Ls to Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Maryland

🏀 Best March Madness odds, predictions & expert picks today

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🔮 March Madness predictions for every game today

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