Best March Madness Upset Predictions Today: Which Underdogs Should You Bet Sunday?
Upsets have been far and few between in the NCAA Tournament this year, with the madness lagging behind more than usual and high-majors pretty well dominating the hardwood.
Even yesterday, the only three upsets involved high-majors winning games they were underdogs in - Michigan, BYU, and Arkansas - so my best March Madness upset picks today are focused on known commodities.
👉 Want more March Madness action? Check out the rest of our March Madness second-round expert picks as part of our March Madness predictions.
💰 Ranking today's March Madness underdogs by best moneyline odds
Our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds for any March Madness market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
| Team (seed) | Opponent (seed) | Best ML odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kentucky (3) | vs. Illinois (6) | +115 via bet365 |
| Saint Mary's (7) | vs. Alabama (2) | +205 via Caesars |
| Oregon (5) | vs. Arizona (4) | +145 via bet365 |
| Ole Miss (6) | vs. Iowa State (3) | +190 via bet365 |
| Colorado State (12) | vs. Maryland (4) | +280 via DraftKings |
| New Mexico (10) | vs. Michigan State (2) | +270 via DraftKings |
| UConn (8) | vs. Florida (1) | +410 via DraftKings |
| Baylor (9) | vs. Duke (1) | +650 via bet365 |
👉 Want to cash your upset picks? Check out the most common March Madness upsets by seed and our guide on how to predict March Madness upsets.
🎯 Our best March Madness upset picks & predictions today
After just a few upsets in the first round of March Madness involving non-high-majors, the first day of the second round followed suit. The biggest Cinderellas taking the court - Drake and McNeese - didn't manage wins, and neither did Creighton after taking a halftime lead against No. 1 seed Auburn. Instead, the biggest upsets came from Arkansas, BYU, and Michigan ... and any hope of upsets today will likely come from similarly well-known programs.
🚨 No. 3 Kentucky over No. 6 Illinois
📅 Tipoff: 5:15 PM ET
📊 Best moneyline odds: +115 via bet365
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Only one team is an underdog as a higher seed today and that's Kentucky after new Wildcats head coach Mark Pope won his first career NCAA Tournament game on Friday. While this Kentucky team isn't at full strength, with Jaxson Robinson out and Lamont Butler playing sporadically in his return from injury, Illinois isn't a team worth trusting.
The Fighting Illini are one of just three teams in the KenPom top 20 that ended up seeded worse than No. 5 ... the other two programs to achieve that honor are Gonzaga and Missouri, both of which have already been eliminated.
And although this Kentucky team has flaws defensively, its offense is among the country's most explosive - it's 11th in adjusted efficiency and 24th in adjusted tempo.
Guard Otega Oweh and big man Amari Williams were unstoppable for Pope in the first round, and they should take advantage of an Illini defense that's outside the top 40 in adjusted efficiency. Even with an NBA talent like Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois has faltered down the stretch with four double-digit losses in its last eight games.
🚨 No. 7 Saint Mary's over No. 2 Alabama
📅 Tipoff: 6:10 PM ET
📊 Best moneyline odds: +205 via Caesars
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It looked like Vanderbilt was going to cruise past Saint Mary's in the first round, holding a double-digit lead over the Gaels in the second half. Saint Mary's offense then started to play as well as its defense and the Gaels prevailed ... if that momentum continues into today, Alabama could be in trouble.
The Crimson Tide are the only top two seed that looked like it might actually lose in the first round of the tournament after an inspired Robert Morris squad took advantage of Alabama's non-existent defense. It took Grant Nelson coming into the game, despite being injured, for Alabama to win.
These two teams are on entirely different trajectories and play different brands of basketball, which is why I think the Gaels can pull this off.
Their defense is seventh in adjusted efficiency, anchored by two-time WCC Defensive Player of the Year Mitchell Saxen. If Randy Bennett's team can get enough offense out of WCC Player of the Year Augustas Marciulionis, Alabama's March Madness odds could be shattered.
🚨 No. 5 Oregon over No. 4 Arizona
📅 Tipoff: 9:40 PM ET
📊 Best moneyline odds: +145 via bet365
A little Pac-12 after dark to close out the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament? It doesn't get much better than that, even if these teams hail from different conferences now ... if only Bill Walton were still with us to call this one.
This might be the most evenly matched game of Day 4, with Arizona's offense carrying it this far thanks to its guard play and Oregon leaning on a defense anchored by 7-footer Nathan Bittle. And although the Cats looked strong in the first round against Akron, we've seen Tommy Lloyd's squad disappoint in March for three straight seasons.
With Bittle's size allowing him to own the paint while still having the ability to space the floor, and Dana Altman surrounding him with efficient shooters like Jackson Shelstad and Keeshawn Barthelemy, this should be a challenging game for a Zona defense that was 13th in points allowed per game in Big 12 play (74.5).
👉 Can't get enough upsets? Check out our detailed history of the biggest March Madness upsets of all time.
🚀 Best March Madness upset moneyline parlay today
If you combine all three of my favorite upset picks today into a moneyline parlay, you can turn a winning $10 bet into a $141.30 profit at FanDuel. Be sure to use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay during the NCAA Tournament:
🚨 No. 3 Kentucky (+112) over No. 6 Illinois
🚨 No. 7 Saint Mary's (+195) over No. 2 Alabama
🚨 No. 5 Oregon (+142) over No. 4 Arizona
📊 Best SGP odds: +1413 via FanDuel ($10 to win $141.30)
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