Kansas vs. Arkansas Prediction, Odds & Preview Tonight: NCAA Tournament First Round Best Bets

The No. 7 seed Kansas Jayhawks (21-12) take on the No. 10 seed Arkansas Razorbacks (20-13) tonight in an NCAA Tournament West Region matchup with tipoff from Amica Mutual Pavilion in Providence, R.I., is at 7:10 p.m. ET (CBS). Our Kansas vs. Arkansas prediction, odds, and preview focus on the battle of star coaches looking to advance their team in the March Madness bracket.

Bill Self’s Jayhawks are 4.5-point betting favorites for the first-round matchup. Let’s dive into this part of our March Madness predictions series.

🏀 Kansas vs. Arkansas prediction & picks tonight

Here are my best Kansas vs. Arkansas predictions for the first round of the NCAA Tournament; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:

✅ Against the spread pick: Arkansas +4.5 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Kansas ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🔥 Best player prop bet: Zeke Mayo under 14.5 points (-105 via Fanatics) ⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Exact score prediction: Kansas 73, Arkansas 71 (+18000 via DraftKings)

👉 Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks and the rest of our March Madness first-round predictions.

🤖 See our March Madness AI bracket predictions for every game through Monday, April 7

🏆 Best Kansas vs. Arkansas pick, player prop bet & score prediction

Our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds for any March Madness market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

✅ Arkansas to cover the spread: + 4.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The biggest story of this matchup is the 13th meeting of Self and Calipari, who are currently tied at 6-6 all-time. Ultimately, I expect the lower-seeded of the two coaches, Calipari, to cover the spread. The SEC may not traditionally be a basketball conference, but it has been this year, so it’s hard not to reward Arkansas for its tougher conference schedule.

The numbers bear out my faith in the Razorbacks. Arkansas is 31st in T-Rank through games played since February 1, trailing 30th-ranked Kansas by an inconsequential margin. Importantly, the Hogs are 13th in free-throw rate (43.3%) while the Jayhawks are a concerning 316th. In Quad 1 games in that sample, Arkansas (4-4) ranks 20th while Kansas (2-7) ranks 40th. 

Those numbers may not mean as much with the Hogs losing forward and leading scorer Adou Thiero, but they’re returning point guard and number two scorer Boogie Fland, so I have faith. I would make this game much closer to a pick ’em, so pocketing the 4.5 points—or taking the plus-money value on the moneyline—are the best bets to make here.

📊 Best odds: -110 via DraftKings ($10 to win $9.09)

🔥 Zeke Mayo Under 14.5 points (-105) ⭐⭐⭐

I am not in love with this player prop pick, but our best sports betting sites didn’t have any open lines for the Razorbacks as of press time, so we’ll trust this lively Arkansas defense to limit Mayo’s scoring output. Mayo is averaging 14.5 points per game this year, so fading him against the Hogs, who rank 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency since Feb. 1, should prove sharp.

I have two reservations with this play, the first being Arkansas’ swift pace and the second being personnel changes. But I’d rather fade Mayo, who is more of a perimeter player, than big man Hunter Dickinson with big man Thiero on the shelf. If Arkansas’ interior defense struggles without him, that could help Mayo stay under by siphoning away his perimeter looks.

It helps that we can get the under 14.5 at Fanatics for -105, while most of our other best sports betting apps have it listed at -120.

📊 Best odds: -105 via Fanatics ($10 to win $9.52)

🎯 Exact score prediction: Kansas 73, Arkansas 71

With a spread of 4.5 and a total of 145.5, I’m projecting Arkansas to cover a game that barely stays under the total. Balancing both sides’ above-average pace with their top-25 adjusted defensive ratings since Feb. 1 is tricky, especially with both sides continuing to defend well in Quad 1 games.

The Arkansas injury report makes this game even harder to handicap, as their recent results reflect a different team than the one we’ll see on Thursday. Still, all the advanced metrics suggest Arkansas is about even with—if not better than—Kansas, so I’m comfortable projecting them to keep this one within a single possession.

📊 Best odds: +18000 via DraftKings ($10 to win $1,800)

🤖 Kansas vs. Arkansas AI prediction

For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live NCAA Tournament stats before predicting the winner and exact score for Kansas vs. Arkansas. Our AI prediction projects a final score of Kansas 75, Arkansas 71.

🖥️ AI score prediction: Kansas 75, Arkansas 71

• Kansas' dominant frontcourt, led by Hunter Dickinson, presents a significant challenge for Arkansas, especially with the Razorbacks' struggles against athletic bigs this season
• The absence of Arkansas' leading scorer, Thiero, due to a knee injury, hampers their offensive capabilities and depth
• Kansas' experience in the NCAA Tournament, coupled with their strong defensive metrics, positions them favorably against an Arkansas team that has faced inconsistencies

🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean Arkansas covering the spread (+4.5) and a total of Over 145.5 points. ChatGPT is not a dedicated sports betting model, but it can identify data that March Madness bettors might overlook.

📊 Live Kansas vs. Arkansas odds

Follow the latest live March Madness college basketball odds and real-time NCAA Tournament scores for the first round.

Latest Kansas vs. Arkansas odds

We're breaking down the latest Kansas vs. Arkansas odds from BetMGM ahead of tipoff.

Spread

Kansas is a 5.5-point betting favorite but Arkansas +5.5 is juiced to -115. Kansas would need to win by at least 6 points tonight in order to cover the spread.

Total

The Over/Under of 145.5 is down a point from the opening betting line. That seems like what will be the final number with -110 odds on either side.

Moneyline

Kansas is laying -225 on the moneyline as a heavy betting favorite. Those odds imply a 68.97% chance the Jayhawks secure the outright victory.

🔢 Kansas vs. Arkansas opening odds

• Spread: Kansas -5.5 (-110) | Arkansas +5.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Kansas -195 | Arkansas +162
• Over/Under: Over 146.5 (-106) | Under 146.5 (-114)

📅 Check out the full March Madness first-round schedule and opening odds.

🔮 West Region expert picks

• West Region betting preview
• Florida vs. Norfolk State prediction
• UConn vs. Oklahoma prediction
• Memphis vs. Colorado State prediction
• Maryland prediction Grand Canyon prediction
• Drake vs. Missouri prediction
• Texas Tech vs. UNC Wilmington prediction
• Kansas vs. Arkansas prediction
• St. John's vs. Omaha prediction

📺 How to watch Kansas vs. Arkansas: NCAA Tournament first round

📅 Date: Thursday, March 20
🕗 Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Amica Mutual Pavilion (Providence, R.I.)
📺 TV: CBS
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live

💰 March Madness betting odds pages

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