Duquesne vs. Illinois Expert Pick, Prediction for Round 2

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: March 23, 2024 4:52 PM EDT • 2 min 38 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Terrence Shannon Jr. #0 of the Illinois Fighting Illini reacts as we make our Duquesne vs. Illinois expert pick and prediction for the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday. — Terrence Shannon Jr. #0 of the Illinois Fighting Illini reacts after defeating the Morehead State Eagles during the second half in the first round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at CHI Health Center on March 21, 2024 in Omaha, Nebraska. Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images via AFP.

The third-seeded Illinois Fighting Illini clash with the 11th-seeded Duquesne Dukes in the second round of the East Region on Saturday, as we offer our best Duquesne vs. Illinois expert pick and prediction based on the best March Madness odds.

After ousting No. 6 seed BYU in the first round, the No. 11 seed Duquesne Dukes (25-11) face an even bigger giant in No. 3 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (27-8) in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Those two will tip off at 8:40 p.m. ET on TNT from the CHI Health Center Omaha.

Illinois is favored by 9.5 points to beat Duquesne after surviving a brief scare against Morehead State, which jumped out to a 9-0 lead and trailed by one at halftime before the Illini pulled away for an 85-69 win in the opening round. They'll hope for a better start against Duquesne, which nearly led wire to wire in its 71-67 win over BYU on Thursday.

Can Illinois avoid the upset and keep its March Madness odds and Final Four odds alive? Or will the Dukes extend their Cinderella run into next weekend?

As part of our March Madness predictions, here is our Duquesne vs. Illinois expert pick (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Duquesne vs. Illinois odds

Duquesne (11) vs. Illinois (6) expert pick: East Region

Illinois -9.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Odds: -115 via Betway

Duquesne deserves all the credit in the world for downing BYU in a game the Dukes had no business winning. That said, they'll have their work cut out for them in the second round.

When comparing these teams, it's impossible to ignore the massive difference in size. Illinois features the eighth-tallest rotation in the country with five starters all standing at 6-foor-6 or taller, which was on full display when the Illini blocked seven shots in the first round to smother Morehead State down the stretch.

Duquesne, on the other hand, has the second-smallest rotation of any team left in the field. The Dukes have seen 11.2% of their shots blocked this season - the fifth-worst mark by any team in the field of 68 - and have enjoyed nearly 50% of their scoring production from senior guards Dae Dae Grant (6-2) and Jimmy Clark (6-3), both of whom are listed at just 185 pounds.

If this contest becomes a showdown between scoring guards, that heavily favors Illinois and potential NBA lottery pick Terrence Shannon (23.1 PPG), who is averaging 32 points in four games since the start of the Big Ten Tournament. I just don't see Duquesne hanging around for 40 minutes against this explosive Illinois attack.

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Duquesne vs. Illinois spread & Over/Under analysis

Illinois opened as a 10-point favorite to beat Duquesne across most of our best sports betting sites, but the Illini are still laying just 9.5 points via Betway, which is offering the best price in the market for Saturday's favorites.

The total sits at 147.5 for this second-round matchup, which feels low at a glance for a game featuring the nation's second-best offense by adjusted efficiency. For what it's worth, KenPom has this contest projected as an 80-70 win for Illinois.

Duquesne vs. Illinois game info

When: Saturday, March 23
Tip-off: 8:40 p.m. ET
Where: CHI Health Center Omaha, Omaha, Neb.
How to watch: TNT

Duquesne-Illinois prediction made Friday at 5 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart

C Jackson Cowart is an award-winning sports writer, reporter, and editor with nearly a decade of experience in the industry, with previous stops at theScore, Action Network, Forbes, and ESPN before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's written about sports betting for the last five years, with a specialty in NFL, NBA, MLB, and collegiate futures markets and a weakness for novelty props and betting on the eventual runner-up. He's also an avid fantasy sports manager and commissioner and runs a sports card business on the side. He's a fiercely proud Oregon native and UNC alumnus, and he can't seem to stop betting on Ben Simmons to win MVP.