NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Friday

Can the Golden State Warriors complete a six-game series victory over the Sacramento Kings? Sportsbook Review betting analyst Jon Metler shares his top NBA player props and best bets for Friday's NBA playoff schedule using the best NBA odds. 

At one time, the Sacramento Kings were in complete control of their series over the Golden State Warriors, but that feels like forever ago, as they will now face elimination on the road at the Chase Center.

The last time Keegan Murray played at the Chase Center, he shot lights out, but we're betting on a different outcome for Game 6. Can we break our Under curse and get a green check mark on an Under bet in these NBA playoffs?

Here are our top NBA player props and best bets for Friday (odds via NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Friday’s NBA schedule and odds

(odds via FanDuel)

• Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors (-7.5)
• Memphis Grizzlies vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-4.5)

Friday’s NBA best bets

• Player prop: Keegan Murray Under 11.5 points (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Warriors ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop: LeBron James to score 30+ points vs. Grizzlies (+175 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop: Ja Morant Over 7.5 assists vs. Lakers (-130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Friday’s NBA player prop picks

Player prop: Keegan Murray Under 11.5 points vs. Warriors (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Murray helped us cash a same-game parlay on this exact prop in Game 5, and I see absolutely no reason to not run it back with the exact same bet for Game 6. In Game 5, Murray even played more minutes than we had anticipated, at 34, and still fell Under the total of 11.5 points.

Murray is projected to score 10.9 points on Friday against the Golden State Warriors, which means we can price Murray at -135 to go Under the total of 11.5 points. Murray's 23-point explosion in Game 4 is keeping his total trading at a higher price than it should be.

You will want to buy this prop at BetMGM, which is asleep at the wheel for the moment and hasn't adjusted this line at all, despite other NBA betting sites moving the line. Caesars opened with the Under priced at -106 and is now trading the Under at -136. We have seen similar movement at FanDuel, which opened the Under at -111 and is now trading it at -125. BetMGM will eventually catch up to the rest of the market, but before it does, hit the button.

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.

Player prop: LeBron James to score 30+ points vs. Grizzlies (+175 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I placed this exact bet in our NBA same-game parlay at +160, and since then, FanDuel has moved the odds to +175. At +160, it was a good bet, but at +175, it's even better, and you should definitely consider placing a straight bet as well. 

James is projected to score 28.4 points on Friday, just below the 30-point mark, but it's LEBRON JAMES, and we all know he wants to make a statement regarding the Dillon Brooks situation. Based on our projection, we can price James at +135 to score 30 or more points, and this bet shows a positive expected value of 17%. 

FanDuel's +175 price is way off market. BetRivers has James trading at +138 to score over 29.5 points, which is much closer to our projection. If FanDuel were trading James at +138 to score 30 or more points, we wouldn't have a bet to place. However, they're offering +175, and we can't let them get away with that price.

Player prop: Ja Morant Over 7.5 assists vs. Lakers (-130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I believe the sportsbooks have done an excellent job of making the Over on Morant's assist prop look unappealing. Despite recording seven assists in back-to-back games, which is below the total of 7.5, they’re asking you to lay heavy juice on the Over. However, you shouldn’t pass up on this prop for that reason. 

Morant is projected to drop 9.2 dimes against the Lakers on Friday, which means we can price the Over 7.5 assists at -220. That -130 juice is not as steep when the projections have it at -220. If the projection isn't convincing enough, consider that Morant has been averaging 41.3 minutes per game since returning from his wrist injury and has a usage percentage of 30.6. 

To maximize your edge, you’ll want to bet on this prop at bet365, which has it trading at -130. If you don't have access to bet365, take your action to BetMGM or DraftKings, which are offering -135. You have multiple options, but as the day progresses, they should begin to disappear, as we already see PointsBet trading the Over at -150 and Caesars at -145.

NBA best bets made 04/28/2023 at 11:40 a.m. ET.

Here are our best NBA betting sites:

• FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our FanDuel Review
• Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
• DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
• PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
• BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Related pages

• Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)