Best NBA Parlays Today: Picks, Predictions for Friday's Games

Jon Metler

Last Updated: April 28, 2023 12:06 PM EDT • 2 min 37 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

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Will LeBron James be able to send Dillon Brooks and the Memphis Grizzlies packing to Cancun? Jon Metler shares his favorite NBA same-game parlay for Friday's games using the latest NBA odds.

Dillon Brooks' personal brand has taken a severe hit over the last few weeks, and it seems as though things couldn't possibly get any worse for him. Brooks has talked the talk but hasn't walked the walk, and I believe that Friday's game will only make things even worse for him.

The real question is whether I'm betting against Brooks or for LeBron James?

Here are our NBA SGP picks for Friday (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).

Friday's NBA SGP picks

Game	Props	Combined Odds
Grizzlies-Lakers	James 30+ points, James 6+ assists, Morant 8+ assists	+617

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Grizzlies vs. Lakers odds

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NBA SGP predictions: Grizzlies vs. Lakers

LeBron James 30+ points vs. Grizzlies (+160)

Do you remember when Dillon Brooks called out LeBron James, and then everyone bet on James to score 40-plus points, but it didn't happen? I think James might end this conversation and send Brooks to Cancun once and for all. James publicly said he needs to be better and wasn't happy about his level of play in Game 5. Well, with a chance to close out the Grizzlies at home, I think James delivers.

Not only is the narrative there for a bet like this, but the numbers also back up our stance. James is projected to score 28.4 points on Friday against the Grizzlies, which isn't quite the 30 points we're looking for, but that doesn't change the fact that we're getting a solid price point for this outcome. With this projection, we can price James at +135 to score 30-plus points, yet we're able to bet on it at +160 via FanDuel.

LeBron James 6+ assists vs. Grizzlies (-135)

When considering an additional bet on one of James' player props, the first thing that comes to mind is James' rebounding prop. However, the numbers don't support an Over on that prop. James is averaging 12.4 rebounds per game in this series, and the pricing of his rebounding prop reflects that. Although the rebounding prop offers no value for the Over, James' assist prop presents a different story.

According to the projections, James is expected to drop 6.8 dimes against the Grizzlies on Friday. Given this projection, the -135 juice doesn't seem significant at all. In fact, it allows us to price the 6-plus assists at -195, making the -135 juice appear more reasonable. Even with heavy juice such as -135, this bet offers a positive expected value of 15%.

Ja Morant 8+ assists vs. Lakers (-140)

Despite playing with an injured wrist, Morant has not slowed down in any capacity. Over the last three games, Morant has averaged 41.3 minutes per game, and you should expect more of the same on Friday as the Grizzlies face elimination on the road.

Morant is projected to record 9.2 assists against the Lakers on Friday, which is well above the total of 7.5 assists that FanDuel has set. Although the juice is high at -140 due to the projections, it's still not high enough. Based on our projection, we can price Morant at -220 to have more than 7.5 assists.

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NBA player prop picks made 04/28/2023 at 9:00 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.