NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Thursday

Check out our NBA player props and best bets for Thursday's schedule based on the best odds.

Jon Metler

Last Updated: October 8, 2025 11:04 AM EDT • 5 minute read

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Will Domantas Sabonis be able to overcome his bruised sternum on Thursday and record more than 5.5 assists against the Golden State Warriors? Sportsbook Review betting analyst Jon Metler shares his NBA best bets for Thursday's three-game NBA playoff schedule using the best NBA odds.

Jacque Vaughn, the head coach of the Brooklyn Nets, has made it clear that he intends to double and triple team Joel Embiid whenever he touches the ball. The fact that Embiid recorded seven assists in his last game is well known, and most sports betting sites have taken note and adjusted Embiid's assist prop accordingly.

The keyword was most of the sportsbooks adjusted the odds of Embiid's assist prop in accordance with the Nets' defensive strategy. Lucky for us, one of the sportsbooks is still lagging behind.

Check out our NBA picks and our best NBA betting sites.

Thursday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5) vs. Brooklyn Nets
Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors (-5.5)
Phoenix Suns (-2.5) vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Thursday’s NBA best bets

Player prop: Malik Monk Under 15.5 points (+122 via FanDuel) vs. Warriors ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Domantas Sabonis Over 5.5 assists (-135 via DraftKings) vs. Warriors ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Joel Embiid Over 3.5 assists (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Nets ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Thursday’s NBA player prop picks

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Player prop: Malik Monk Under 15.5 points vs. Warriors (+122 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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When it comes to betting NBA player props throughout the playoffs, one thing is certain: the recency bias and narratives play a major role in the betting lines from game to game. As everyone praises Monk for his outstanding play and resemblance to the player we saw at Kentucky, his points prop is on the rise, making it the ideal time to bet the Under.

Monk is projected to score 15.2 points on Thursday, so we can price the Under 15.5 points at -120 instead of the +122 we're seeing at FanDuel. The expected value of this bet is 21% based on this projection.

I'm using an alternate Under at FanDuel, but with these projections, 15.5 points may be the total once tip-off occurs. FanDuel offers the best price on the Under on Monk's total of 16.5 at -104, but this wager has an expected value of 19%, so we increase our edge by 2% by taking the alternate Under.

Player prop: Domantas Sabonis Over 5.5 assists vs. Warriors (-135 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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There may be a fear that Sabonis will not play as many minutes due to an injury, or the fact that he has only six assists in this series. Either way, this total is too low for Sabonis, and I'll gladly take the Over 5.5 assists at the -135 price point via DraftKings.

As Sabonis is projected to drop 6.8 assists against the Warriors, we can price this prop at -190 to go Over the total of 5.5 assists. Many bettors might think -135 is steep juice, but when you think the prop should be trading at -190, it's nothing.

I like this prop even more since DraftKings is running a bit rogue with their -135 price tag for the Over. BetRivers has the Over 5.5 assists trading at -162 and PointsBet is right behind them at -160. I believe this just further proves my opinion that we're buying into a favorable break-even percentage at -135 via DraftKings.

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Player prop: Joel Embiid Over 3.5 assists vs. Nets (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

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I can't see any reason to come off of this prop until it's properly priced, and thanks to BetMGM, we're not yet at that point in the series. However, if Embiid goes Over the total on Thursday, that will probably be the end of this prop.

It's projected that Embiid will have 4.2 assists against the Nets on Thursday, which is similar to the projection we saw in Game 2, allowing us to price this prop at -145. I priced Game 1 at -135 and we were able to purchase it for +100, while Game 2 was priced at -145 and we were able to purchase it for +120. There's no plus-money bet in Game 3, but it remains a valuable price point.

Why do I believe that this will be our last opportunity if Embiid goes over the total? Pinnacle has Embiid trading at -154 to go Over the total on Thursday, which is even higher than where we believe it should be trading. This bet will lose all value as sports betting sites follow Pinnacle's lead.

Lucky for us, BetMGM is not quite there yet, so we still have one more bet to place. With a -140 price point, PointsBet is close to ending this prop and FanDuel is right behind with a -136 price point.

NBA best bets made 04/20/2023 at 5:00 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.