🏀 Dream vs. Sky Prediction: WNBA Picks for Tuesday, June 9
Angel Reese returns to Chicago tonight for her first regular-season game against the Sky since being traded to Atlanta. My Dream vs. Sky prediction breaks down why I'm laying the points with the road side in tonight's nationally televised WNBA Commissioner's Cup matchup - while also fading Reese.
The Dream are an 8.5-point betting favorite over the Sky, with tipoff from Wintrust Arena in Chicago set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN).
🏀 Dream vs. Sky prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Dream -8.5 (-110 via BetMGM) | 2.2u → 2u | The Dream have won 3 of their last 4 games by 10+ points. |
| Over 164.5 (-112 via FanDuel) | 0.56u → 0.5u | The Dream have scored 91+ points in 2 of their last 3 games. |
| Angel Reese Under 11.5 rebounds (+111 via Caesars) | 1.35u → 1.5u | The Sky grab 25.8 defensive rebounds per game (5th in WNBA). |
Total wagered: 4.11 units | Max profit: 4 units
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🏆 Who will win Dream vs. Sky?
Let's forget that I'm fading Reese for the moment and dive into why the Dream are rightfully favored.
We're watching an Atlanta team that ranks 2nd in the WNBA with a +6.5 point differential, as well as 2nd in 3-point percentage differential (+4.2%). The Dream are not only elite at defending the perimeter, with Rhyne Howard and Jordin Canada ranking 1st and 2nd in steals per game (3.1 and 2.1, respectively), but they are also above average at shooting from beyond the arc (33.7%).
Atlanta would be favored against most teams, let alone Chicago, with its -5.2 point differential (3rd-lowest).
Score prediction: Dream 91, Sky 79
💰 Dream vs. Sky prediction & best bet
Dream -8.5 (-110)
One of these teams covers spreads - and the other doesn't. And while it may seem square to lay the points with a favorite that has covered at a higher clip (6-4 ATS vs. 3-8 ATS, by the way), this number is simply too low.
Atlanta has won and covered three of its last four games, winning by at least 10 points in each cover. That includes its 22-point win over the Mystics on Saturday - when its win probability never fell below 67.9%, per ESPN Analytics - and the Mystics are considered a better team than Chicago, according to the championship odds.
🔥 Best Dream vs. Sky player prop bet
Angel Reese Under 11.5 rebounds (+111)
I'll take my square cap off now for my best player prop.
Reese is coming off a 17-rebound performance against the Mystics, so the market is overrating her in this spot. The Sky record 25.8 defensive rebounds per game (5th in the WNBA), so Reese should struggle to grab some of the easy offensive rebounds she gets against other teams (for example, she had seven offensive rebounds on June 2 against the Sun, a bottom-four team in defensive rebounding).
The best line available for this prop is Reese Under 11.5 rebounds (+115) at Pinnacle. However, I'll use the Under 11.5 rebounds (+111) at Caesars, as it's a widely available line, and it would be misleading to track a bet at a sportsbook that isn't live in the U.S.
🚀 Dream vs. Sky same-game parlay
Parlaying these two bets at FanDuel pays +256.
💵 Dream vs. Sky SGP picks
- Dream -8.5
- Angel Reese Under 11.5 rebounds
Odds: +256 via FanDuel
💵 My betting record for WNBA picks
All WNBA picks have been tracked since May 8.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-15 | -1.75 units ❌ | -6.8% ❌ |
| Spreads | 3-3 | +0.88 units ✅ | 8.2% ✅ |
| Totals | 2-5 | -0.8 units ❌ | -15.7% ❌ |
| Player props | 3-4 | -1.9 units ❌ | -22.5% ❌ |
| Parlays | 1-3 | +0.08 units ✅ | 6% ✅ |
📊 Live Dream vs. Sky odds
📺 How to watch Dream vs. Sky
- Date: Tuesday, June 9
- Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Wintrust Arena (Chicago)
- TV: ESPN
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