NYC Mayoral Election Odds 2025: Musk Endorses Cuomo With Mamdani Still the Strong Favorite

The rise of Zohran Mamdani continues, and if the 2025 New York City Mayoral election odds are any indication, he's set to keep soaring after polls close Tuesday night.

New Yorkers will finally vote on Nov. 4, with Mamdani the overwhelming front-runner to become their new mayor after he stunned Andrew Cuomo in the city's Democratic mayoral primary this past summer. Cuomo remained in the race as an independent and is still Mamdani's main challenger, with Republican Curtis Sliwa far back, and soon-to-be former mayor Eric Adams dropping out. We'll dive into the latest developments that could shape the election, but first, let's look at how the odds stand.

🔢 New York mayoral election odds 2025

Though we saw during the most recent U.S. presidential election that there are pockets of New York beginning to slowly lean toward the right, the city remains mostly liberal. That makes the Democratic primary especially significant, as the winner gets a clear path to the mayor's office.

Mamdani is now racing down that golden road, and the probabilities from the prediction trading market, Kalshi, show he's in an increasingly strong position, with his chances of getting the highest office in the state growing throughout the summer and now into the fall. A few recent polls from Marist and Beacon Research, with FOX News sponsoring the latter, show Mamdani holding a 16-percentage-point lead, according to The New York Times.

If you're confident in Mamdani after his stunning primary win, and you are in the U.S., you can make predictions on the New York City mayoral election via Kalshi. Join now and get a $10 bonus. 18+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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🗳️ Who will be the next mayor of New York City?

Here is Kalshi's prediction market for the 2025 NYC mayoral election on Nov. 4.

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The race is so slanted that Kalshi is now asking what Mamdani's margin of victory will be in the election.

There's also a market for who will finish second, which Cuomo is unsurprisingly winning at 91%. Perhaps the most intriguing offering through Kalshi in the hours before election day though, is which boroughs Mamdani will win.

He's being given a chance above 90% in three of the five boroughs, with The Bronx not far behind at 87%. The only exception is the generally conservative Staten Island.

Mamdani - who's running on a highly progressive agenda that includes increasing taxes on the wealthy and making public buses free - has already beaten Cuomo once while easily cruising to a victory during the Democratic primary earlier this summer. It was a colossal upset at the time.

The triumph was delayed, with the vote-counting process in a ranked-choice system often taking a week or so. But in the end, Mamdani soared past his more experienced rival while taking 56% of the vote to Cuomo's 44%.

Cuomo announced he'll resume his mayoral run soon after, but this time as an independent, though the former New York governor is still a candidate far more to the center compared to Mamdani and his socialist agenda.

⚽ 2026 World Cup front and center in NYC mayoral race

Included in that agenda is now targeting FIFA ahead of the 2026 World Cup, which will be held jointly in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

Mamdani is highly opposing the dynamic pricing for tickets to World Cup matches, a system that allows for cost adjustments based on factors like supply and demand. Consequently, a ticket that costs $60 on the low end for group stage matches is likely to increase even further.

"I have long been quite troubled by how the supposed stewards of the game have opted for profit time and time again at the expense of the people that love this game,” said Mamdani, via The Guardian. “And I think what is stunning to me is these demands that we are putting forward, they are just demands that go back to what (FIFA) has done in previous World Cups.

"And yet what they are seeing with the World Cup here in the United States, Mexico, and Canada is the prospect of increasing their revenues up close to 400% compared to what they were in Qatar.”

🔮 Prediction market backing Mamdani

Elsewhere, there was much discussion throughout the summer about what Mamdani's rise means for a Democratic party searching for its new de facto leader - or perhaps a fresh identity while picking up the pieces after Donald Trump took the White House again in last year's presidential election.

Some of that chatter, like a column in The Hill, wonders if Mamdani and his far-left policies represent too large of a risk for Democrats. However, the percentages at Kalshi show increasing momentum, with the chances of Mamdani reaching office spiking from 72% in late June to 83% by mid-September, and now 90%. Cuomo, his closest challenger, is miles back at 10%.

New York will be getting a new mayor on Nov. 4, and current projections from both Kalshi and polling indicate Mamdani's meteoric ascension is set to continue. 

📣 Sanders, Ocasio-Cortez rally support for Mamdani

The final days of an election campaign are the time for closing arguments, which are often done while bringing out a candidate's key supporters. And on the further left of the Democratic party, it doesn't get much more powerful than Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders.

The two spoke out in support of Mamdani last week during a rally in Queens titled "New York is Not for Sale." Their presence is critical for a candidate very much aligning himself with the party's progressive voices.

"A victory here in New York will give hope and inspiration to people throughout our country and throughout the world," Sanders said, via CNN. "That is what this election is about, and that is why Donald Trump is paying attention to this election."

Meanwhile, Ocasio-Cortez told the roughly 13,000 people in attendance that it's "not a coincidence that the very forces that Zohran is up against in this race mirror what we are up against nationally," via The Associated Press.

✅ Key late endorsement for Cuomo

Adams, the incumbent mayor who has been mired in controversy for some time and recently dropped out of the race, endorsed Cuomo in the final days of the campaign. The public support came a day after the two sat courtside at a New York Knicks game.

Adams added more fuel to the increasingly combative nature of the campaign, especially after a debate when temperatures ran hot between Cuomo, Mamdani, and Sliwa.

"Am I angry that I'm not the one taking down Zohran, the socialist and the communist? You're darn right I am," Adams said, via ABC News. "But you know what? The city means more to me than anything, and it is time for us as a family to come together."

Meanwhile, Mamdani outlined the influence of Donald Trump.

"We have a president of this country who has spoken publicly of his desire for Eric Adams to drop out of the race," he said, again via ABC News. "Eric Adams dropped out. He has spoken of his desire for candidates to consolidate behind Andrew Cuomo. Today, Eric Adams is endorsing Andrew Cuomo."

🗽Musk endorses Cuomo too, while Trump issues warning

The push from conservatives in the waning hours of the campaign has continued, with Elon Musk now also among the notable voices from that side to get behind Cuomo recently, via Business Insider.

He's not alone in being incredibly wealthy and opposing Mamdani, as that list also includes former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg, Airbnb cofounder Joe Gebbia, and hedge fund manager Bill Ackerman.

In a sense it also features Donald Trump, though of course his most powerful title right now is being President of the United States. He rose to prominence in New York real estate and grew up in Queens, and Trump is already threatening to withhold government funding from the city if Mamdani wins.

"It's gonna be hard for me as the president to give a lot of money to New York, because if you have a communist running New York, all you're doing is wasting the money you're sending there," he said recently in an interview with 60 Minutes, via the BBC.

"I'm not a fan of Cuomo one way or the other, but if it's gonna be between a bad Democrat and a Communist, I'm gonna pick the bad Democrat all the time," he continued.

Yet even those powerful voices aren't impacting the polls or probabilities much, with Mamdani still holding a commanding lead in both as New Yorkers get set to vote.

❓ NYC mayor odds FAQs

When is the 2025 New York City mayoral election?

The New York City mayoral election will take place on Nov. 4.

Who are the candidates in the 2025 New York City mayoral election?

Zohran Mamdani (Democratic nominee), Andrew Cuomo (independent), Curtis Sliwa (Republican), and Jim Walden (independent) are running in the 2025 mayoral election.

Who is the current mayor of New York City?

Eric Adams is currently serving as the 110th mayor of New York City.