Azerbaijan Grand Prix Best Bets, Odds: Verstappen On Pole in Baku
I'm making my Azerbaijan Grand Prix best bets with Max Verstappen claiming the pole in Baku with Saturday's qualifying run. He is the new betting favorite to win Sunday's Azerbaijan Grand Prix with -250 odds from FanDuel, representing an implied win probability of 71.43%.
The race starts at 7 a.m. ET (ESPN), and my picks below feature Norris, Leclerc, and George Russell, the last of whom is one of a few long shots with a chance.
Azerbaijan Grand Prix odds & favorites 2025
Azerbaijan Grand Prix odds to win via FanDuel following Saturday's qualifying session:
| Driver | Odds | Implied probability | Profit on a $10 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | -250 | 66.67% | $25.00 |
| Lando Norris | +850 | 10.53% | $85.00 |
| Oscar Piastri | +1100 | 8.33% | $110.00 |
| George Russell | +1400 | 6.67% | $140.00 |
| Carlos Sainz | +1900 | 5.00% | $190.00 |
| Charles Leclerc | +2700 | 3.57% | $270.00 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +3500 | 2.78% | $350.00 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +4000 | 2.44% | $400.00 |
| Liam Lawson | +4000 | 2.44% | $400.00 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000.00 |
| Isack Hadjar | +20000 | 0.50% | $2,000.00 |
| Oliver Bearman | +40000 | 0.25% | $4,000.00 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | +40000 | 0.25% | $4,000.00 |
| Fernando Alonso | +40000 | 0.25% | $4,000.00 |
| Lance Stroll | +40000 | 0.25% | $4,000.00 |
| Alex Albon | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000.00 |
| Franco Colapinto | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000.00 |
| Pierre Gasly | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000.00 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000.00 |
| Esteban Ocon | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000.00 |
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Azerbaijan Grand Prix predictions, expert picks & best bets
Editor's note: Picks were made after FP3.
Here are my Azerbaijan Grand Prix best bets for tomorrow's race at Baku City Circuit based on the latest odds from the best F1 betting sites.
Pick to win Azerbaijan Grand Prix: Lando Norris ⭐⭐⭐
Now, we're talking.
The implied win probability range for Piastri, Norris, Leclerc, and Max Verstappen is between 16.67% and 33%. That's as tight as it's been since the season started, and all four front-runners can make a solid case for winning in Baku.
However, I was impressed by Norris' FP3 as he finished half a second ahead of Verstappen's second-fastest time, one of the reasons I've pivoted to the Brit. As long as his only costly mistake was the one he committed in FP2, Norris has the speed and skill to win.
McLaren obviously has the advantage on Baku's straights, one of which is among the longest on the Formula One circuit.
Norris must balance his breakneck pace on the straights with committed braking on the 20 corners, with many tight and unforgiving. For the last couple of months, Norris has avoided mistakes like he made in FP2.
I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt thanks to his recent dominant track record, which includes three wins in the last six races. BetMGM offers the best value of the best sports betting sites, and a winning $10 bet will yield a $20 profit.
Best odds: +200 via BetMGM (33% implied probability)
Best value bet to win Azerbaijan Grand Prix: Charles Leclerc ⭐⭐⭐
Look up near miss, and there's a good chance you'll see Leclerc's previous results in Baku as the case study for the word's definition.
He has taken pole position four straight times at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix but failed to win. As an extension of that tidbit, only one of seven drivers in this race's history who finished first in qualifying won the race.
Leclerc finished second last year behind Piastri, showcasing the precise balance between speed and braking required to win this challenging race. There's often an increased number of safety cars on this track due to the propensity for mistakes on the narrow corners.
That will benefit Leclerc, as it should prevent the McLaren speedsters from having any chance of gaining separation. In some ways, the narrow, slow corners of the Baku City Circuit are similar to the Monaco Grand Prix, where Leclerc finished second.
So, can he finally turn oh-so close into a win in Azerbaijan? With an immaculate race, yes.
Best odds: +500 via FanDuel ($10 returns $50 profit)
Best long shot to win Azerbaijan Grand Prix: George Russell ⭐⭐
I've given George Russell two stars, as long shots haven't had any success all season. Mind you, this track provides a glimmer of hope for those with longer odds due to the higher frequency of crashes, mistakes and passing opportunities.
While Russell finished third at this race twice (last year and 2022), he will require good fortune and some help to stand imperiously atop the podium.
Russell was the third-best driver for the first couple of months of the season, but struggled with consistency for a while before recapturing excellent form recently.
He hasn't finished below fifth in the last four races, with third his best position in that stretch.
Best odds: +3300 via Caesars ($10 returns $330 profit)
Azerbaijan Grand Prix starting grid
Here is the starting grid for Sunday's race, with Max Verstappen on pole:
- Max Verstappen
- Carlos Sainz
- Liam Lawson
- Kimi Antonelli
- George Russell
- Yuki Tsunoda
- Lando Norris
- Isack Hadjar
- Oscar Piastri
- Charles Leclerc
- Fernando Alonso
- Lewis Hamilton
- Gabriel Bortoleto
- Lance Stroll
- Ollie Bearman
- Franco Colapinto
- Nico Hulkenberg
- Esteban Ocon
- Pierre Gasly
- Alex Albon
Azerbaijan Grand Prix FP1 results
- Lando Norris (McLaren)
- Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
- Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
- George Russell (Mercedes)
- Alex Albon (Williams)
- Yuki Tsunoda (Red Bull Racing)
- Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing Honda RBPT)
- Carlos Sainz (Williams)
- Liam Lawson (Racing Bulls)
- Isack Hadjar (Racing Bulls Honda RBPT)
Azerbaijan Grand Prix FP2 results
- Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
- Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
- George Russell (Mercedes)
- Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)
- Oliver Bearman (Haas)
- Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing Honda RBPT)
- Liam Lawson (Racing Bulls)
- Esteban Ocon (Haas)
- Alex Albon (Williams)
- Lando Norris (McLaren)
Azerbaijan Grand Prix FP3 results
- Lando Norris (McLaren)
- Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing Honda RBPT)
- Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
- Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
- Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)
- George Russell (Mercedes)
- Alex Albon (Williams)
- Oliver Bearman (Haas)
- Liam Lawson (Racing Bulls)
- Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
Azerbaijan Grand Prix trends & history
- Baku City Circuit is the sixth-slowest track on the circuit, with average speeds reaching 213.198 km/h
- The track runs along the seafront before turning inland around the Government House of Baku. It features a slim section next to the old city walls, where cars squeeze through a gap of less than eight meters.
- Charles Leclerc holds the lap record (1:43.009), which he set in 2019
- Leclerc has won qualifying ahead of four straight Azerbaijan Grand Prix races, but he's still searching for his first win on the track
- Ferrari have won five of the seven pole positions for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, with Mercedes taking the other two
- Only Mercedes' Valtteri Bottas won the race after taking the pole position (2019)
- Six of the seven Azerbaijan Grand Prix race winners didn't start first on the grid
- The first Azerbaijan Grand Prix was in 2017
- Of the current grid, Verstappen, Piastri, and Lewis Hamilton have won in Baku
- Baku City Circuit is home to one of longest straights
- Baku is the home of the narrowest corner of the F1 calendar, Turn 8, which is just 7.6 meters (24.934 feet) wide at the narrowest point
How to bet on Azerbaijan Grand Prix
When betting on any grand prix, there are many things to consider, some more crucial than others:
- There shouldn't be much separation between cars in the lead pack with such a propensity for safety cars, which is advantageous for slower cars and those with slightly longer odds.
- Six of the seven Azerbaijan Grand Prix race winners didn't finish first in qualifying. That's indicative of a race replete with passing opportunities and mistakes
- Leclerc is looking for his fifth straight pole position at the Baku City Circuit. He failed to win the previous three times he started first on the grid
Past Azerbaijan Grand Prix winners
Here is a look at all of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix winners since its inaugural race in 2017.
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 🇦🇺 Oscar Piastri | McLaren-Mercedes |
| 2023 | 🇲🇽 Sergio Perez | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing |
| 2021 | 🇲🇽 Sergio Perez | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
| 2020 | Not held due to COVID-19 pandemic | Not held due to COVID-19 pandemic |
| 2019 | 🇫🇮 Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes |
| 2018 | 🏴 Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2017 | 🇦🇺 Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer |
How to watch the 2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix
- Race date: Sunday, Sept. 21
- Start time: 7 a.m. ET
- Track: Baku City Circuit (Baku, Azerbaijan)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN+
- Weather: 68 degrees, 20-mph to 31-mph winds, 90% chance of precipitation (1 mm)
Azerbaijan Grand Prix FAQs
Who is favored to win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
Max Verstappen is the -250 betting favorite to win Sunday's Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku.
What are the odds for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
Max Verstappen (-250), Lando Norris (+850), and Oscar Piastri (+1100) lead the betting odds to win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.
What time is the 2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
The Azerbaijan Grand Prix starts at 7 a.m. ET on Sunday, Sept. 21.
How to watch the 2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix
You can watch the Azerbaijan Grand Prix on ESPN and ESPN+.
Who has won the most Azerbaijan Grand Prix races?
Sergio Perez has the most Azerbaijan Grand Prix wins (2).
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