Azerbaijan Grand Prix Prediction, Odds 2025: F1 Expert Picks & Long Shot
The 17th of 24 Formula 1 races is on tap as I offer my Azerbaijan Grand Prix odds and predictions. Sunday's event takes place at Baku City Circuit in Baku, Azerbaijan (7 a.m. ET, ESPN), and Oscar Piastri is the slight +175 betting favorite.
The Australian is trading just ahead of teammate Lando Norris and Red Bull driver Max Verstappen, who won the Italian Grand Prix last time out to snap McLaren's five-race win streak.
Two of those three drivers are featured in my picks below, as well as Ferrari's Charles Leclerc.
๐ฅAzerbaijan Grand Prix odds & favorites 2025
Azerbaijan Grand Prix odds via BetMGM as of Monday, Sept. 15
| Driver | BetMGM | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oscar Piastri | +175 | 36.36% | $17.50 |
| Lando Norris | +225 | 30.77% | $22.50 |
| Max Verstappen | +250 | 28.57% | $25 |
| Charles Leclerc | +650 | 13.33% | $65 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| George Russell | +2200 | 4.35% | $220 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +15000 | 0.66% | $1,500 |
| Fernando Alonso | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Alex Albon | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Isack Hadjar | +40000 | 0.25% | $4000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +50000 | 0.2% | $5,000 |
| Carlos Sainz | +50000 | 0.2% | $5,000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +75000 | 0.13% | $7,500 |
| Oliver Bearman | +100000 | 0.1% | $10,000 |
| Liam Lawson | +100000 | 0.1% | $10,000 |
| Lance Stroll | +150000 | 0.07% | $15,000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +150000 | 0.07% | $15,000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +200000 | 0.05% | $20,000 |
| Franco Colapinto | +250000 | 0.04% | $25,000 |
๐ฐ Azerbaijan Grand Prix predictions, expert picks & best bets to win
Here are my best Azerbaijan Grand Prix predictions for Sunday's race at Baku City Circuit. It's the 17th race of the 24 scheduled for the 2025 season.
๐ Pick to win Azerbaijan Grand Prix: Oscar Piastri โญโญโญโญ
Best odds: +180 via DraftKings ($10 to win $18)
Implied probability: 35.71%
Piastri won two of the previous four races and is the defending Azerbaijan Grand Prix champion. Last year's race at the Baku City Circuit involved a thrilling finish, in which Piastri aggressively and brazenly overtook Leclerc to snatch victory from the pole-sitter.
A couple of primary factors led me to back the Aussie F1 championship odds favorite. There are many opportunities to pass, and while it's the sixth-slowest track on the grid, Piastri is fearless and willing to take calculated risks more readily than his teammate.
It's that risk-forward approach that won him last year's Azerbaijan Grand Prix, which he considered his best victory at the time.
DraftKings offers the top value among the best sports betting sites. FanDuel's +145 odds are at the low end of the market, and that price carries a 40.82% implied probability.
๐ Best value bet to win Azerbaijan Grand Prix: Max Verstappen โญโญโญโญ
Best odds: +410 via FanDuel ($10 to win $41)
Implied probability: 19.61%
Verstappen ended McLaren's five-race win streak while notching his third victory of the season at the Italian Grand Prix.
He was my best value pick for that race, too. His chances at Baku should increase due to the track's slower average speed. As the sixth-slowest track on the grid, Baku's rugged street race can help offset the performance gulf between his car and the superior McLaren MCL39.
Verstappen can hang around for longer, bide his time, and pounce at the most opportune moment. He's one of only three drivers on the current grid who have won in Baku, and the four-time champ won't be overly concerned if he doesn't finish first in qualifying.
In fact, it might be beneficial not to take pole, as only one of the seven pole-sitters has gone on to win the race.
Verstappen holds some momentum after winning his third race of the season, and notching his first win in nine races. That could lift his chances of winning for the second time in Baku.
๐ฏ Best long shot to win Azerbaijan Grand Prix: Charles Leclerc โญโญโญ
Best odds: +1000 via FanDuel ($10 to win $100)
Implied probability: 9.09%
Knock, knock, knocking on Baku's door. That adapted version of the Guns N' Roses song should be Leclerc's theme tune for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, as he's taken four straight pole positions in Baku but has yet to make any count. Leclerc finished second last year behind Piastri, his best result.
He's also finished third, fourth, and recorded a DNF after being the fastest in qualifying. That tells me he's overdue, and Leclerc also races confidently at the Baku City Circuit.
His close-but-no-cigar theme has continued this season while finishing on the podium five times, four of which were in third place. You'll find his best odds at FanDuel (+1000), with DraftKings (+550) offering the least value at the low end of the market.
๐ Past Azerbaijan Grand Prix winners
Here is a look at all of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix winners since its inaugural race in 2017.
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | ๐ฆ๐บ Oscar Piastri | McLaren-Mercedes |
| 2023 | ๐ฒ๐ฝ Sergio Perez | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | ๐ณ๐ฑ Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing |
| 2021 | ๐ฒ๐ฝ Sergio Perez | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
| 2020 | Not held due to COVID-19 pandemic | Not held due to COVID-19 pandemic |
| 2019 | ๐ซ๐ฎ Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes |
| 2018 | ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2017 | ๐ฆ๐บ Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer |
๐ Azerbaijan Grand Prix trends & history
- Baku City Circuit is the sixth-slowest track on the circuit, with average speeds reaching 213.198km/h
- The track runs along the seafront before turning inland around the Government House of Baku. It features a slim section next to the old city walls, where cars squeeze through a gap of less than eight meters.
- Charles Leclerc holds the lap record (1:43.009), which he set in 2019
- Leclerc has won qualifying ahead of four straight Azerbaijan Grand Prix races, but he's still searching for his first win on the track
- Ferrari have won five of the seven pole positions for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, with Mercedes taking the other two
- Only Mercedes' Valtteri Bottas won the race after taking the pole position (2019)
- Six of the seven Azerbaijan Grand Prix race winners didn't start first on the grid
- The first Azerbaijan Grand Prix was in 2017
- Of the current grid, Verstappen, Piastri, and Lewis Hamilton have won in Baku
๐บ How to watch the 2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix
๐
Race date: Sunday, Sept. 21
๐ Start time: 7 a.m. ET
๐ Track: Baku City Circuit (Baku, Azerbaijan)
๐บ TV: ESPN
๐ป Streaming: ESPN+
โ๏ธ Weather: 72 degrees, 13-mph to 20-mph winds, 10% chance of precipitation
๐๏ธ Azerbaijan Grand Prix schedule
- Practice 1: Friday, Sept. 19; 4:30 a.m. ET
- Practice 2: Friday, Sept. 19; 8 a.m. ET
- Practice 3: Saturday, Sept. 20; 4:30 a.m. ET
- Qualifying: Saturday, Sept. 20; 8 a.m. ET
- Race: Sunday, Sept. 21; 7 a.m. ET
โ Azerbaijan Grand Prix FAQs
Who is favored to win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
Oscar Piastri is the Azerbaijan Grand Prix odds betting favorite, with the McLaren driver trading at +175 at BetMGM.
What are the odds for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
Oscar Piastri (+175), Lando Norris (+225), and Max Verstappen (+250) are getting the shortest odds to win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix at BetMGM.
What time is the 2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
The Azerbaijan Grand Prix starts at 7 a.m. ET on Sunday, Sept. 21.
How to watch the 2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix
You can watch the Azerbaijan Grand Prix on ESPN and ESPN+.
Who has won the most Azerbaijan Grand Prix races?
Sergio Perez has the most Azerbaijan Grand Prix wins (2).
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