Yankees vs. Tigers Prediction & Best Bets 8/18

The Yankees and Tigers square off on Sunday Night Baseball, and we're diving into the player props for AL MVP favorite Aaron Judge.

Mike Spector

Last updated: August 18, 2024 9:16 AM EDT • 4 min read

New York Yankees Anthony Volpe, Aaron Judge, and Alex Verdugo look toward the outfield during a game against the Detroit Tigers. Photo by David Rodriguez Munoz via USA TODAY Network.

The New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers finish their three-game series at a neutral site as part of the MLB Little League Classic, so Aaron Judge has a chance to add another ballpark at which he hits a homer.

The MLB Little League Classic began back in 2017, and this is both the Yankees and Tigers first time appearing in the event.

New York is an underdog for just the 24th time this season as Detroit sends ace Tarik Skubal to the mound and is coming off a 4-0 win on Saturday.

First pitch from Journey Bank Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field in Williamsport, Pa., is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET.

Yankees vs. Tigers prediction

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Tigers ML (-120 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐

The Yankees are an impressive 17-6 straight-up as underdogs this season, while the Tigers have struggled in comparison in the favorite role, going 25-23.

However, New York has padded its record against right-handed starting pitchers (60-33), as it is five games under .500 (13-18) against southpaws. Now, the Yankees will face arguably the best southpaw in the sport in Skubal, who has led the Tigers to four wins in his last five starts, all against teams over .500.

I would make the Tigers moneyline a more confident four-star play if not for the threat of thunderstorms in the Williamsport area. Should the game begin on time then be delayed, Detroit’s odds of winning diminish massively if it does not re-insert Skubal into the game.

A winning $10 wager would pay out $18.33.

Best odds: -120 via Betway | Implied probability: 54.55%

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Top Yankees vs. Tigers player props

MLB picks made Sunday at 7:27 a.m. ET.

Prediction: Aaron Judge Over 0.5 RBIs ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Judge is the only Yankees hitter who has batted better than .365 in their career against Skubal (min. three at-bats). He is 5-for-11 with two home runs in his career against the lefty, and between him and Juan Soto, they are on pace to be the third pair of teammates in MLB history to each finish a season with a 190 wRC+ or better (min. 400 PA).

None of the previous four MLB Little League Classics had more than eight runs scored, but Journey Bank Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field plays 323 feet down the left field line.

Judge has gone consecutive games without an RBI just twice in the last 20 games, so I am surprised to see the 44.44% implied probability attached to this prop.

For every $10 risked, a winning wager would return $12.50 in profit.

Best odds: +125 via Betway | Implied probability: 44.44%

Prediction: Matt Vierling Over 0.5 runs ⭐⭐⭐

Tigers leadoff hitter Vierling has been an outstanding table-setter this month, slashing .318/.340/.455. That has resulted in at least one run scored in four of the last five games, including two games with multiple runs scored.

Now, Vierling and the Tigers face a struggling Marcus Stroman, who has pitched to a 7.16 ERA and .366 OBA over the last 30 days.

I am foregoing Vierling’s total bases prop even though the Over of 1.5 is trading at +105 odds, as Stroman’s OPS allowed to right-handed hitters is 119 points lower than what he allows to lefties.

Best odds: -120 via Betway | Implied probability: 54.55%

Yankees vs. Tigers odds & game info

When: Sunday, Aug. 18
First pitch: 7 p.m. ET
Where: Journey Bank Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field, Williamsport, Pa.
How to watch: EPSN
Favorite: Tigers(-120 via Betway)

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”