⚾ Rays vs. Red Sox Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (May 7)

Scoring against the Tampa Bay Rays has been an achievement of the highest order recently. And to a lesser extent that's been true for the Red Sox too during a new era for that team, with the focus seeming to shift toward run suppression.

The impact of that on the Rays vs. Red Sox win probability at the prediction market apps is a tight affair anticipated tonight from Fenway Park beginning at 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN). The market is reflecting that likelihood too, with Boston as the tiniest favorite while receiving a 51% win probability.

🏆 Who will win Rays vs. Red Sox? Live MLB win probability

An injury to Steven Matz has led to Griffin Jax starting for the Rays tonight, and that's no doubt a significant reason why this game is a virtual tossup between the two division rivals. The steamrolling 24-12 Rays, who have won six straight games and nine of their last 10, are even slight underdogs while getting a 49% win probability amid $88,156 in trading volume.

But Jax holds inflated numbers due to a few early-season blowups, and most notably an appearance when he allowed three earned runs without recording an out. A 5.14 ERA still hangs over him, and such is life in the bullpen. However, as the Rays stretch him out it's critical to see the larger picture, which is that Jax has held the opposition scoreless in seven of his last nine outings, including five consecutive innings.

He could quickly fit right in with a suffocating Rays pitching staff that sits fourth leaguewide with its 3.55 ERA. Tampa has been even more brilliant recently too, allowing an incredible 1.5 runs per game during the team's current winning streak.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox have been showing some signs of life while winning three straight, but they still field a dreadful 26th-ranked offense.

My prediction: Rays win. Tampa also rests fourth leaguewide in opponents' batting average (.221), while Boston's pitching staff is down in 18th (.244).

💣 Who will hit a home run in Rays vs. Red Sox?

A Rays' lineup with plenty of thump will get to face a promising though inexperienced lefty in Jake Bennett, who's making just his second big-league start, this time due to Ranger Suarez getting pushed back.

Tampa's Junior Caminero is receiving easily the highest probability to go deep at 18%, with his teammate Jonathan Aranda a fair bit behind him at 10% and alongside Boston's Trevor Story. But while Caminero is always a threat after recording 45 bombs last year and already reaching the seats nine times this season, Aranda's white-hot ways should be drawing more attention.

Yes, perhaps the market is leery of a left-on-left matchup, though Aranda has held up well against southpaw starters this season while posting a .932 OPS. He's also been an inferno recently with a 1.018 OPS over the last two weeks, a stretch when Aranda has clubbed three of his seven homers this campaign.

My prediction: Jonathan Aranda to hit a home run. Bennett leans heavily on his sinker, and Aranda is roasting breaking balls while slugging .735 against those offerings. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our home run predictions today.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Rays vs. Red Sox?

There's been some peaks and valleys tied to this market, but overall we've seen a rise from a 45% probability of a first-inning run to 47%.

That feels a little high considering the Rays' run stifling, which most recently has included holding the Toronto Blue Jays to a mere four runs during a three-game sweep. Yes, Jax endured some early-season misfortunes, but he's no stranger to sitting batters down during a short stint. A sweeper is his most-used pitch, and it's been nearly unhittable while producing a .167 batting average, according to Baseball Savant.

His whiff rate is in the 88th percentile largely due to that offering. Meanwhile, the sample size with Bennett after one start is minuscule, but part of his allure is an ability to induce ground balls. His groundball rate sat at 60% during his first outing.

The Rays rank among the top-10 NRFI teams (20-16) due to their combination of imposing pitching and a middling offense. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are tied for eighth in the NRFI standings.

My prediction: No run in the first inning. Boston is an even better NRFI team at home, where the Red Sox boast an 11-5 record. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our Best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 Rays vs. Red Sox win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Rays vs. Red Sox

• Date: Thursday, May 7
• First pitch: 7 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Fenway Park (Boston)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Rays starter: Griffin Jax (1-2, 5.14 ERA)
• Red Sox starter: Jake Bennett (1-0, 1.80 ERA)