⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Thursday, May 7
Do you enjoy watching baseballs turn into missiles? Saddle up then, because a few of the league's premier missile launchers are in ideal matchups today.
My home run predictions today are locking in on Nick Kurtz and Pete Alonso, who both sit among the league leaders in average exit velocity. Kurtz is a righty masher who's on the right end of that split today, too.
I'm also eyeing Yandy Diaz for my MLB home run picks, and he's well-positioned against a lefty.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 7
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Kurtz home run (+256 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.51u | Boasts the ninth-best average exit velocity MLB-wide. |
| Yandy Diaz home run (+534 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 1.1u | Has put up a .903 OPS against lefties. |
| Pete Alonso home run (+489 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.98u | Has been taking off over the past week. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.61 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Nick Kurtz to hit a home run (+256)
Kurtz is a threatening all-around source of thump, but he's really going to make his living teeing off against righties. And tonight he gets an inexperienced one in the Phillies' Andrew Painter who's making only his sixth career start.
It's been a rocky beginning for Painter, who's allowed three-plus earned runs in four of his past five outings, contributing to a 5.28 ERA. Now he gets to face a ball-scorcher in Kurtz whose average exit velocity and barrel percentage both sit in the 94th percentile or above.
Kurtz boasts a .958 OPS when facing a righty, too.
📡 SBR Edge: Fighting fire with fire
Painter has thrown his four-seamer 46% of the time to lefties, and Kurtz is slugging .600 against that pitch.
π₯ More home run picks today
Yandy Diaz to hit a home run (+534)
Jake Bennett could have a promising future for the Red Sox, but right now even at the minor-league level he's not missing many bats while posting a 6.9 K/9 in Triple-A. That plays right into Diaz's strength, as he doesn't strike out much anyway while heading back to the dugout bat in hand just 11.2% of the time.
That means he'll get more opportunities to size Bennett up as the rookie makes just his second start, and receive plenty of looks at a fastball that averages just 92.6 mph. The southpaw leans on his sinker heavily too, and Diaz has put up a .480 batting average against that pitch, which has contributed to his .903 OPS against lefties.
🤑 More MLB props
Looking for six simple outs? Our Dustin Saracini has you covered with his best NRFI bets today.
Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+489)
Alonso seems to finally be settling into his new surroundings with the Baltimore Orioles. He's posted a sizzling 1.269 OPS over the past week while clubbing three of his seven home runs on the season.
There were always signs the real Alonso would show up soon, and most notably his average exit velocity of 95.3 mph that sits fifth leaguewide. His hard-hit rate of 56.8% is also in the top 3%, and now he gets to face a starter in the Marlins' Max Meyer who has been finding success early, but regression potentially looms. He's put up an HR/9 of 1.7 and 2.2 over the past two seasons.
π Best home run parlay picks today
High-end thump is featured prominently in today's parlay due to the exit velocity seen throughout. Kurtz comes with the added benefit of plate discipline and his 100th percentile walk rate (21.7%).
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Nick Kurtz home run (+256)
- Yandy Diaz home run (+534)
- Pete Alonso home run (+489)
Best odds: +13193 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 2.6u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-78-0 | -9.28 units β | -21.7% β |
| Home run picks | 9-45-0 | -3.03 units β | -49.4% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-11 | -0.82 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
A common thread today is picking on inexperienced starters, with Kurtz in an ideal matchup against Painter and Diaz also getting a quality opportunity while facing Bennett. The price for Kurtz is shorter accordingly, but feel free to invest a little more given his dominance against righties.
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