Padres vs. Dodgers Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Thursday, Sept. 24

My best Padres vs. Dodgers prediction focuses on how good these two pitchers have been against the lineups they face tonight. Nick Pivetta will look to help the Padres secure a playoff berth, while Tyler Glasnow attempts to help the Dodgers keep their faint No. 1 seed hopes alive.

I also have additional MLB picks for tonight's 10:10 p.m. ET first pitch at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, including a player prop and a home run bet. The game will air on MLB Network and stream on MLB.TV. The Dodgers are a -175 betting favorite.

⚾ Padres vs. Dodgers picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;

Total wagered: 3.75 units | Max profit: 4.81 units

🏆 Who will win Padres vs. Dodgers?

I'm taking the Padres to win. Pivetta vs. Glasnow will be an excellent matchup, and in a game where I don't expect many runs, I'll back the Padres' bullpen, which ranks third in ERA, to keep the Dodgers' offense in check.

Score prediction: Padres 3 Dodgers 2

💰 Padres vs. Dodgers prediction & best bet

First 5 innings Under 3.5 (+126)

Glasnow has fantastic numbers against the Padres in his career. He's held tonight's expected lineup to a .139 batting average, striking out 42 batters in 111 plate appearances. As a team, the Padres' OPS against Glasnow is just .474.

While Pivetta's numbers against the Dodgers aren't as good, he's pitched very well in September. He's allowed just three earned runs in 14.0 innings, dropping his ERA from 4.50 to 3.30. He's held the Dodgers to just a .265 average, with only Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani having any real success against him.

🔥 Best Padres vs. Dodgers player prop bet

Tyler Glasnow Over 6.5 strikeouts (-135)

Since returning from injury on Aug. 25, Glasnow has struck out at least six batters in all five of his starts. He's struck out at least seven in four of those appearances, and in his most recent start, he struck out 10 Giants in just 6.0 innings.

Glasnow enters this game having struck out 87 batters in 67.2 innings, an average of 1.3 per inning. Though the Padres have struck out the eighth-fewest times in the league, in his career, Glasnow has struck out one Padre for every 2.4 he faces.

💣 Padres vs. Dodgers home run prediction

Freddie Freeman to hit a home run (+575)

Freeman has only hit one home run this month, which is a big reason why he's listed as the seventh-most likely Dodger to hit a home run tonight. However, he has a slash line of .390/.444/.683 against Pivetta, with two home runs, one triple, and four doubles.

Pivetta has allowed a home run in back-to-back starts, and 65% of the contact hitters make against him leads to a fly ball. Freeman ranks just 112th in barrel rate thanks to his recent slump, but has also been hitting well of late, with two hits in two of his last three games.

📊 Live Padres vs. Dodgers odds

The Dodgers are seeing 81% of the handle, so it's no surprise that the moneyline has moved from around -165 to -174 at most of the best sports betting sites. If you're on the Dodgers, expect the price to keep getting worse for both the moneyline and run line.

As for the total, bettors are split on the Over and Under. While this has led most sportsbooks to keep the number at 7.5, DraftKings has raised it to 8.

📈 Padres vs. Dodgers betting trends

🚑 Padres vs. Dodgers injuries

📺 How to watch Padres vs. Dodgers

• Date: Thursday, Sept. 24
• First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles)
• TV: MLB Network
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Padres starter: Nick Pivetta (3-2, 3.30 ERA)
• Dodgers starter: Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 3.46 ERA)