Guardians vs. Red Sox Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds & Best Bets for Wednesday, Sept. 23
The Guardians have just a one-game lead atop the AL Central, and my Guardians vs. Red Sox prediction expects Cleveland to stay at the top of the division.
My MLB picks fade the Red Sox as a -135 betting favorite today, with Foster Griffin and Sonny Gray squaring off at Fenway Park in Boston. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN).
โพ Guardians vs. Red Sox picks & odds today
See all of our expertsโ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| Pick | Best Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Guardians ML | +115 via BetMGM | 1.74 units to win 2 units |
| Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 total bases | +180 via BetRivers | 0.83 units to win 1.5 units |
| Jo Adell Over 0.5 home runs | +850 via BetRivers | 0.12 units to win 1 unit |
Total wagered: 2.69 units | Max profit: +4.5 units
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๐ฐ Guardians vs. Red Sox prediction & best bet
Guardians ML (+115 via BetMGM)
Gray is having his best season in three years, but he hasn't been invincible.
The Red Sox right-hander has posted a 3.21 ERA since the All-Star break - compared to his 2.54 ERA pre-break - and has allowed three earned runs in each of his last two starts. With the Red Sox winning in just two of Gray's last four starts and the Guardians in a tight race in the AL Central, I don't agree that Cleveland should have just a 46.51% implied win probability.
Guardians ML (+115 via BetMGM) is the best line available among the top MLB betting sites.
Score prediction: Guardians 4, Red Sox 3
📡 SBR Edge: Winnin' Griffin
The Guardians are 22-8 in Griffin's starts this season.
๐ฅ Best Guardians vs. Red Sox player prop bet
Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 total bases (+180 via BetRivers)
Chase DeLauter has gone over this line in two of his last three games, going 5-for-12 with a home run and a double in that span.
This line is inflated because of how dominant Gray has been overall this season, but it ignores that he's been trending downward after the All-Star break. Gray also throws mostly fastballs to left-handed hitters - 52.2% of the time - and DeLauter is slugging .521 against that pitch type this season.
DeLauter Over 1.5 total bases (+180 via BetRivers) is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
💵 More MLB props today
Looking for more? Dive into Mike Spector's best NRFI bets today.
๐ฃ Guardians vs. Red Sox home run prediction
Jo Adell Over 0.5 home runs (+850 via BetRivers)
While Gray's 2.82 ERA on the season is impressive, he ranks in just the 55th percentile in barrel rate (7.2%), meaning he's not elite when it comes to limiting hard contact. Meanwhile, Jo Adell has already homered in just eight career at-bats against Gray.
The Guardians outfielder has a .460 expected slugging percentage against fastballs this season, and Gray throws fastballs 68.8% of the time to right-handed hitters. Adell Over 0.5 home runs (+850) is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
💥 More home run picks today
Matt MacKay features Ronald Acuna Jr. and others in his home run predictions today.
๐ Live Guardians vs. Red Sox odds
๐ Guardians vs. Red Sox injuries
๐บ How to watch Guardians vs. Red Sox
- Date: Wednesday, Sept. 23
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Fenway Park (Boston)
- TV: ESPN
- Guardians starter: Foster Griffin (15-5, 3.67 ERA)
- Red Sox starter: Sonny Gray (17-5, 2.82 ERA)
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