MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Wednesday, Sept. 23
Bad weather continues to add doubleheaders to Wednesday's MLB slate, which once again has 16 games on tap, maximizing my home run predictions today. We're on a roll after winning Nolan Arenado (+450) and Yordan Alvarez (+333) home run bets on Tuesday night.
Ronald Acuña Jr. is where I'm starting Wednesday's MLB home run picks. The Braves' star RF faces Reds southpaw Andrew Abbott, who has surrendered 6 home runs in his previous 4 starts, as Acuña looks to add to his impressive numbers in September.
⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Sept. 23
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuña Jr. (+422 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.05u | Acuña has hit 7 home runs in September, including 2 in his previous 4 contests. |
| Pavin Smith (+625 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.56u | Smith has 2 home runs across his past 4 outings. |
| Jackson Merrill (+520 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 1.30u | Merrill has hit 20 of 26 home runs against right-handed pitchers this season. |
Total wagered: 0.75 units | Max profit: 3.91 units
💣 Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Ronald Acuña Jr. (+422)
Acuña has been on a heater at the plate for the Braves, recording 7 home runs in September. This includes 2 homers in his previous 4 outings.
Abbott is struggling on the mound this season, allowing an avg exit velo of 89.8 mph (20th percentile) and an 8.2 barrel percentage (37th percentile). Acuña ranks 93rd in xSLG (.494) and 87th in barrel percentage (12.8) in 2026.
Acuña is dealing with a shin contusion. This could explain why his home run odds are a bit longer than usual.
Go to DraftKings to bet on Acuña's home run prop at +422 odds.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Wind Boost
Truist Park is one of the few ballparks that has wind gusts favoring hitters today, with winds up to 11.4 mph blowing out into right field.
🔥 More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Pavin Smith (+625)
The Diamondbacks are in must-win mode and have an edge with Smith back in their lineup. Since returning on September 12th, the Diamondbacks' DH has hit 2 home runs in his last 4 contests.
Smith is a left-handed hitter facing Mason Adams at Coors Field tonight. Adams has allowed 6 home runs in his previous 5 starts for the Rockies, and now Smith gets an added benefit of playing at a hitter-friendly ballpark with 8.5 mph winds blowing out.
Smith has hit all 3 of his home runs in 2026 against right-handed pitching. He's making his first start of the year against the Rockies, which also coincides with a Coors Field debut.
Go to bet365 to bet on Smith's home run prop at +625 odds.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Jackson Merrill (+520)
The Padres will look to Merrill for production at the plate against Yoshinobu Yamamoto tonight. The left-handed hitter has recorded 20 of 26 home runs against right-handed pitchers this season.
Despite Yamamoto's success as a starting pitcher for the Dodgers, sporting a 2.51 ERA and a 14-8 record, he's allowed 19 home runs this year, including 4 in his previous 4 starts. Merrill has yet to go yard against Yamamoto, but tonight's forecast at Dodger Stadium calls for 6.1 mph wind gusts blowing out into center field.
Merrill has hit 4 home runs in September. This includes 1 home run in his previous 4 outings for the Padres.
FanDuel offers the best price on Merrill's home run prop at +520 odds.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (+390)
- Pavin Smith (+500)
- Jackson Merrill (+520)
Best odds: +18128 via FanDuel (0.10u -> 18.12u)
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