Astros vs. Mariners Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Wednesday, Sept. 23

The Astros are tied for the AL West lead with just five games remaining. Tonight, they turn to the red-hot Ethan Pecko as the 24-year-old pitcher looks to outduel George Kirby and keep the Astros' playoff hopes alive.

My best Astros vs. Mariners prediction focuses on the Astros' recent success against Kirby, who has struggled a bit lately. The Mariners are a -130 betting favorite, as I highlight more of my MLB picks, including a player prop and a home run bet. First pitch from T-Mobile Park in Seattle is set for 10 p.m. ET (ESPN).

⚾ Astros vs. Mariners picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

Total wagered: 3.25 units | Max profit: +6.39 units

🏆 Who will win Astros vs. Mariners?

I'm taking the Astros to win this one 4-3. Pecko has allowed only three earned runs in his last 15.2 innings, while the Astros dominated Kirby the last time they faced him, recording eight hits and five runs in a 10-7 win.

Score prediction: Astros 4, Mariners 3

💰 Astros vs. Mariners prediction & best bet

Astros ML (+110)

Pecko has only allowed more than two earned runs once in six appearances. He's given up just one earned run in his last three appearances, despite facing three opponents who rank in the top half of the league in batting average.

Kirby has two solid starts against the Astros this season, but he got rocked by them when he faced them on Aug. 14. Entering that contest, Kirby had a 3.68 ERA. It's now 4.24, as he's allowed multiple earned runs in six of his last seven starts, giving up at least five runs three times during that span.

🔥 Best Astros vs. Mariners player prop bet

Isaac Paredes to record an RBI (+220)

Paredes is 8-for-19 with five RBIs in his career against Kirby. He's recorded at least one RBI in two of his three games against Kirby this season, posting three RBIs the last time they faced each other.

Paredes enters this game with at least one RBI in six of his last nine games and should have success against Kirby, who has allowed 14 earned runs in his last four starts. And Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena, who hit in front of Paredes, are each hitting at least .250 against Kirby, so Paredes should get to the plate with runners on.

💣 Astros vs. Mariners home run prediction

Julio Rodriguez to hit a home run (+575)

While Pecko has allowed just one home run in his last three appearances, he's given up five in his six games this season. All five of those home runs have come in road games. 

Rodriguez ranks 104th among all qualifying hitters in barrel rate. But he's also one of the only hitters to have figured out this year's second-most hitter-friendly ballpark. Though he's fourth on the team in home runs, he's hit 14 of his 21 at T-Mobile Park, the most of any Mariner.

📊 Live Astros vs. Mariners odds

Bettors are split 50/50 on who they think will win this game, so don't expect any moneyline movement before the first pitch. When it comes to the total, the low number of 7.5 has unsurprisingly attracted 79% of the handle to the Over. However, the total hasn't increased, which signals to me that oddsmakers are content with the action they're seeing. Maybe this hits eight before the game starts, but what is more likely is that the price for Over 7.5 just settles around -120.

📈 Astros vs. Mariners betting trends

🚑 Astros vs. Mariners injuries

📺 How to watch Astros vs. Mariners

• Date: Wednesday, Sept. 23
• First pitch: 10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: T-Mobile Park (Seattle)
• TV: ESPN
• Astros starter: Ethan Pecko (1-0, 3.77 ERA)
• Mariners starter: George Kirby (9-11, 4.24 ERA)