College Football Upset Picks Week 4: 3 Underdogs to Win Outright
We're gearing up for Week 4 of the 2026 college football season, which means I'm back with my latest college football upset picks. I've found three teams that are being undervalued in moneyline betting markets for their Week 4 matchups.
My Week 3 college football predictions settled 1-2, as QB Kamario Taylor rallied Mississippi State to cash a +155 moneyline ticket against South Carolina. No. 22 Houston came up just short at +250 against No. 13 Texas Tech, while North Texas (+125) fell apart in the second half against Texas State. Let's aim for a winning weekend with three more moneyline underdogs to bet on in Week 4.
🏈 College football upset picks: Week 4
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 4 based on the latest college football odds before placing your bets.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| Iowa moneyline (+180 via DraftKings) | 1.00 units |
| Michigan State moneyline (+180 via bet365) | 1.00 units |
| Oklahoma State moneyline (+105 via BetMGM) | 1.00 units |
Total wagered: 3.00 units | Max profit: +4.65 units
🚨 Best college football underdogs to bet: Week 4
🎯 Iowa moneyline (+180 via DraftKings)
Long-time Iowa head coach, Kirk Ferentz, continues to field one of the nation's most prolific defenses. The Hawkeyes are currently the top-ranked scoring defense in the FBS, holding opponents to 4.3 points per game, including a pair of shutouts.
Michigan is 3-0 but they have had a couple of shaky performances, including a 52-17 win over UTEP in Week 3. The Wolverines were able to erase two 7-point deficits and exploded with a 35-3 finish in the second half.
That won't be the case against this Hawkeyes defense this week. Iowa is allowing just 2.2 YPC and has only surrendered 1 touchdown in 3 games. Michigan QB Bryce Underwood's miscues could lead to another quick deficit, which will be extremely hard to erase against Iowa.
The line has bounced between Iowa +4.5 and +5.5. Underwood needed a miracle throw and a controversial extra second to beat Western Michigan, who also roster a stout defense. He benefited from facing a pedestrian Oklahoma offense in Week 2 and a soft UTEP defense last week.
Go to DraftKings to bet on Iowa's moneyline at +180 odds.
📡 SBR Edge: Clean Offense
Iowa's offense has only committed 1 turnover this season, which includes 0 fumbles lost. The Hawkeyes have a +3 turnover margin heading into Ann Arbor.
🎯 Michigan State moneyline (+180 via bet365)
Michigan State's undefeated record ended against No. 3 Notre Dame in Week 3 but that's little reason to doubt the Spartans. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald has Michigan State playing methodical offense and smash-mouth defense, holding the Fighting Irish without a passing touchdown.
Michigan State's run defense is allowing 3.8 YPC and will certainly contain Nebraska QB Anthony Colandrea and RB Jamal Rule. The Cornhuskers have blown out all three opponents 139-35, yet they have only played teams from the MAC or FCS.
It's Colandrea's first road start for Nebraska. Michigan State's defense is daunting, and its offense has grit, logging at least 27 carries in every matchup, while only losing 1 fumble. QB Alessio Milivojevic threw a pair of interceptions last week, but Notre Dame's defense is vastly more talented than Nebraska's.
If the Spartans stick to the run game, they can grind clock and score on most possessions, forcing Nebraska into a one-dimensional offense with their stout defensive front. It's Michigan State's recipe to win as a home underdog.
Go to bet365 and bet on Michigan State's moneyline at +180 odds.
🎯 Oklahoma State moneyline (+105 via BetMGM)
Oklahoma State is still riding high after its huge upset win over No. 20 Oregon in Week 2. The new-look Cowboys, led by QB Drew Mestemaker, head into Morgantown to take on undefeated West Virginia on Saturday afternoon.
It's a Big 12 showdown that has the Mountaineers as a small home favorite at -125 odds in moneyline betting markets. Oklahoma State's offense should be able to move the football downfield through both the pass and the run. West Virginia has allowed 4.0 YPC or more in 2 straight games, while giving up 373 passing yards and 3 touchdowns to Coastal Carolina during the season opener.
Mestemaker's Cowboys just routed Murray State 59-0. He's thrown for 241 yards in all three starts for Oklahoma State, including 317 yards against Oregon and 361 yards and 6 touchdowns against Murray State.
West Virginia relies on its rushing attack to win games. The Mountaineers have logged 51 or more carries for 5.2 YPC and 10 rushing touchdowns in all 3 wins this season. However, Oklahoma State is allowing just 3.5 YPC and gave up only 1 rushing touchdown to Oregon.
The Cowboys have become shorter underdogs, but they still hold value at plus odds right now. Grab Oklahoma State's moneyline at +105 odds on BetMGM.
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