Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Wednesday, Sept. 23
My best NRFI bets today are split between NRFI and YRFI, with the latter being heavily influenced by ballpark factors in games being played at the two most hitter-friendly stadiums in the Majors (Coors Field and Sutter Health Park).
With my top NRFI picks, I am backing two surging pitchers in the Brewers-Phillies potential NL playoff preview, and side with two pitchers who have each won at least 15 games in the Guardians-Red Sox matchup. It all looks to build off of yesterday where I cashed each of my three NRFI wagers.
⚾ Best NRFI bets today: Sept. 23
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ NRFI pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Brewers vs. Phillies NRFI (-122 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.82u | Aaron Nola’s recent surge will have him confidently inserted into Philadelphia’s playoff rotation |
| Guardians vs. Red Sox NRFI (-140 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.71u | We’re in for a pitcher’s duel between a 15 and 17-game winner |
| Diamondbacks vs. Rockies YRFI (-140 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.71u | Merrill Kelly is finishing up his worst year of his career |
| Angels vs. Athletics YRFI (-120 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.83u | The Athletics entered the series cashing the YRFI in 59% of home games |
Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 3.07 units
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💰 Best NRFI bet today
Brewers vs. Phillies (6:40 p.m. ET)
- Logan Henderson (2.51 ERA) vs. Aaron Nola (4.49 ERA)
- NRFI records: Brewers (82-75) vs. Phillies (74-83)
Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola appears an option the Phillies can confidently use in their rotation given his recent surge with doubts still lingering about Jesus Luzardo’s shoulder injury.
Nola is 4-2 with a 2.10 ERA in his last 10 starts. He has come a long way from his first 21 starts where he went 3-8 while pitching to a 5.82 ERA and a .284 OBA with runners in scoring position. But in his last 10-start stretch, Nola has limited opposing lineups to a .074 average with runners in scoring position (the two hits in 27 at-bats were both singles).
📡 SBR Edge: Nola among the league's best
Aaron Nola finished his last start with a 2.10 ERA over his previous 10 outings, which at the time was the ninth lowest ERA in MLB over that span (since July 28).
🔥 NRFI/YRFI picks today
Guardians vs. Red Sox (7 ET)
- Foster Griffin (3.67 ERA) vs. Sonny Gray (2.82 ERA)
- NRFI records: Guardians (88-69) vs. Red Sox (76-81)
Foster Griffin was knocked around in his last road start, allowing a season-high eight earned runs over a season-low 2.1 innings against the Orioles. That is a big reason his ERA sits at 9.49 through three September starts, but I’m looking at the southpaw’s whole body of work.
Griffin has pitched to a 1.50 first-inning ERA in his career. And extra rest should do him good, as he has a 2.25 ERA in two starts on at least six days of rest (he last pitched on Sept. 15).
Sonny Gray should match zeros, as Cleveland has cashed the NRFI in 71% of its games against right-handed pitching (72 of 101).
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies (8:40 ET)
- Merrill Kelly (5.00 ERA) vs. Mason Adams (5.09 ERA)
- YRFI records: Diamondbacks (84-73) vs. Rockies (96-61)
Merrill Kelly is having a season to forget, as he is on pace to end with his worst ERA+, BB/9 rate, K/9 rate, HR/9 rate, and WHIP of his eight-year career. That suggests he is due for regression from a respectable 3.68 ERA in 10 career starts at Coors Field, including his only complete game this year.
On the other side, Mason Adams has allowed a troubling nine earned runs allowed and a .410 OBA in nine home innings this year. He has had difficulty getting both left-handed and right-handed batters out this season, and has allowed a 1.022 and .875 OPS in those splits, respectively.
Angels vs. Athletics (9:40 ET)
- Walbert Urena (2.74 ERA) vs. Jeffrey Springs (6.18 ERA)
- YRFI records: Angels (79-78) vs. Athletics (73-84)
Los Angeles and the Athletics each entered this series a profitable 6-4 to the YRFI in its last 10 games. There is even more value on this wager with the game being played at Sutter Health Park, where the Athletics cashed the YRFI 59% of the time this season.
Jeffrey Springs is on pace for his second career season with a HR/9 rate of 2.1 or worse, and this season's career-low 7.1 K/9 rate suggests he isn't missing many bats. His combination of ninth percentile ground ball rate and 22nd percentile barrel rate should again get him in trouble in the bandbox that is his home stadium.
🚀 Best NRFI/YRFI parlay today
Naturally I’m backing several red-hot pitchers as the basis for my two NRFI plays. And in the case of the Guardians-Red Sox NRFI wager, I’m getting extra value with Cleveland being the AL’s most profitable NRFI team. The two YRFI legs of this parlay look to take advantage of ballpark factors for early offense, even if pitchers like Merrill Kelly have solid career numbers in today’s road stadium.
💵 Best NRFI/YRFI parlay today
- Brewers-Phillies NRFI
- Guardians-Red Sox NRFI
- Diamondbacks-Rockies YRFI
- Angels-Athletics YRFI
Best odds: +880 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 0.88u)
❓ NRFI betting FAQ
What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?
NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).
What does YRFI mean?
YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of an NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.
What should I look for when betting NRFIs?
Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.
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