Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Thursday, Sept. 24
With four of MLB’s six divisions having been clinched and several other teams having their playoff seeding locked, lineups have looked much different over the last several days in order to give players rest before the postseason starts next week. My best NRFI bets today look to continue to cash in on that, especially with the bevy of elite arms toeing the rubber today.
WIth my top NRFI picks, I am backing the AL Cy Young Award favorite who puts his last touches on a breakout season. I balance that out with other wagers on teams that have been eliminated from playoff contention, like the Mariners, who have gotten elite pitching at home from Bryan Woo all season. All of it looks to build off of the last two days of 3-1 profitable NRFI/YRFI wagers.
⚾ Best NRFI bets today: Sept. 24
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ NRFI pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Rays vs. Yankees NRFI (-160 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.63u | Peralta has been lights out for the Rays of late |
| Cardinals vs. Pirates YRFI (+125 via DraftKings) | 1u → 1.25u | Skenes hasn't beaten the Cardinals in his entire career |
| Reds vs. Braves NRFI (-113 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.89u | Braves starters could sit after being one game away from locked into the No. 3 seed |
| Padres vs. Dodgers NRFI (-120 via bet365) | 1u → 0.83u | Glasnow has thwarted San Diego’s top two bats over his career |
Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 3.6 units
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💰 Best NRFI bet today
Rays vs. Yankees (7:05 ET)
- Freddy Peralta (4.56 ERA) vs. Cam Schlittler (1.94 ERA)
- NRFI records: Rays (84-74) vs. Yankees (80-78)
Cam Schlittler entered his last start with a 5-0 record, 1.46 ERA, and a 12.1 K/9 rate in his previous 10 outings. He followed that up with his 22nd start allowing one run or fewer this season, when he limited the Diamondbacks to one run on three hits over six innings.
This wager has as much to do with Freddy Peralta as it does Schlittler. In Peralta’s last five starts, the team is 5-0 while the righty has pitched to a 0.94 ERA. Peralta has also limited opponents to a .143 average and .394 OPS with one home run allowed.
📡 SBR Edge: Peralta's tremendous turnaround
Something has clearly clicked for Freddy Peralta as he continues to settle in as a member of the Rays. He has come a long way from his first four starts in a Tampa Bay uniform when he pitched to a 7.17 ERA, while allowing a .288 OBA, .873 opponent's OPS, and five home runs over 21.1 innings.
🔥 NRFI/YRFI picks today
Cardinals vs. Pirates (12:35 ET)
- Kyle Leahy (3.65 ERA) vs. Paul Skenes (3.91 ERA)
- YRFI records: Cardinals (76-82) vs. Pirates (74-84)
Pirates ace Paul Skenes was recently in the news for citing that his participation in the World Baseball Classic likely is responsible for his dip in velocity. Skenes’ fastball has averaged 96.8 mph this season, down from 98.1 mph last season and 98.8 in 2024. That has resulted in an ERA nearly two runs worse than last year’s Cy Young Award campaign when he pitched to a league-best 1.97 ERA.
Even when Skenes was at his best, the Cardinals have always been his toughest opponent. He is winless in seven starts against the division rival, and was tagged for five runs over five innings with a .318 OBA in his only start against St. Louis this year.
Reds vs. Braves (7:15 ET)
- Brady Singer (5.67 ERA) vs. Tyler Mahle (3.81 ERA)
- NRFI records: Reds (74-84) vs. Braves (81-77)
Atlanta is one loss or Dodgers win away from being locked into the No. 3 seed in the NL playoffs. Since it will likely be hosting Wild Card games next week, manager Walt Weiss could rotate which players at the top of the lineup receive days off to keep them fresh before the postseason begins.
That is why I’m turning the other way on Brady Singer and his .276/.363/.561 slash line in 87 combined at-bats to current Braves hitters. But my NRFI wager is also because Tyler Mahle was 3-1 with a 1.25 ERA, 38:6 K:BB ratio, and 0.92 WHIP in his first seven starts with Atlanta. He followed that up with a three-hit one-run outing against the Astros for his second straight win.
Padres vs. Dodgers (10:10 ET)
- Nick Pivetta (3.30 ERA) vs. Tyler Glasnow (3.46 ERA)
- NRFI records: Padres (94-64) vs. Dodgers (80-78)
San Diego entered this series averaging 8.0 runs per game over a five-game winning streak, while Los Angeles had scored 7.3 runs per game while winning four straight. But the NRFI cashed in the series opener while the teams combined for just seven runs (the Padres also had zero extra-base hits).
Tyler Glasnow has not allowed a run in the first inning in any of his last four starts. I expect him to record another clean first inning as he has held Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado to a combined two hits in 21 at-bats. Los Angeles has scored in the first in his last three starts, but Nick Pivetta has a 1.93 ERA in three starts this month.
🚀 Best NRFI/YRFI parlay today
It always makes it easier to back an NRFI play when the likely Cy Young Award winner is toeing the rubber. But I found great NRFI value in several other areas, especially with two pitchers who have had great success for their teams after being acquired at the trade deadline (Peralta and Mahle).
💵 Best NRFI/YRFI parlay today
- Rays-Yankees NRFI
- Cardinals-Pirates YRFI
- Reds-Braves NRFI
- Padres-Dodgers NRFI
Best odds: +1129 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 1.13u)
❓ NRFI betting FAQ
What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?
NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).
What does YRFI mean?
YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of an NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.
What should I look for when betting NRFIs?
Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.
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