⚾ NL Cy Young Prediction & Best Bet: Will Ohtani Win This Historic Race?

I don't think it's ever been more difficult to make my NL Cy Young prediction - we have an absolute dogfight on our hands between five pitchers who all have a legitimate case to win the award. 

Early in the season, we're watching the ace in Pittsburgh once again lead the pack, an under-the-radar National League East pitcher generate elite groundball volume, a mind-blowing young flamethrower surge into the top three, a veteran defy time, and a global megastar loom as a dangerous long shot. But who will be there, trophy in hand, when the dust settles? Let's dive in.

📊 NL Cy Young odds

⚾ NL Cy Young contender breakdown 

The favorite: Paul Skenes (+240)

Aside from a five-run outburst the Phillies put up against Skenes during his last turn in the rotation, the dynamic ace has once again earned favorite status in the Senior Circuit. Before that outing, Skenes had gone 16 innings without allowing an earned run, which had briefly pushed his ERA to 1.98 on the season. Is that good?

Skenes is currently No. 1 in xwOBA, first in WHIP, first in walk rate, top five in strikeout percentage, top 10 in barrel percentage, and top 10 in hard hit percentage. He's a freak, but there are a few disadvantages to buying at this price. At +240, you're investing at the absolute peak of his market value. The biggest variable remains the Pirates' long-term management of his arm; if Pittsburgh institutes an innings limit or a late-season shutdown, his hold on this award will evaporate.

The analytical darling: Cristopher Sanchez (+250)

Sanchez is riding a career-best strikeout rate (29.9%), walk rate (5.2%), ERA (1.82), xERA (2.77), and sits in the 98th percentile in groundball percentage (59%). He's one of the most fascinating pitchers in baseball right now, and is a strong bet on the Cy Young odds board due to sheer workload alone, leading this pack with 64.1 innings pitched.

Relying on an incredibly streamlined three-pitch mix - a sinking fastball, a sweeping slider, and a devastating changeup (49% whiff rate among the best in baseball), Sanchez's arm-side run and horizontal break prevent teams from barrelling him, resulting in an elite groundball rate that makes him a bona fide candidate to take home this award. At +250, objects in mirror are closer than they appear - something tells me Skenes will be looking over his shoulder all season long, especially with Philadelphia still eight games back of Atlanta in the NL East.

The electric surge: Jacob Misiorowski (+550)

The Milwaukee Brewers' 6-foot-7 flamethrower is the breakout story of 2026. Misiorowski has converted his raw minor-league stuff into pure major-league dominance, racking up a massive 88 strikeouts in just 57 innings. Opponents are visibly guessing against his premium slider-fastball sequence this year.

It helps that "The Miz" is throwing that fastball the hardest he's thrown in his career, averaging out 99.7 MPH so far this season while limiting teams to a .195 xBA against that specific pitch. His underlying metrics are spectacular, too, showcasing a high whiff percentage (39% - the best in baseball) and a drastically improved walk rate compared to his prospect profile. At +550, he represents massive upside; if he maintains this incredible strikeout pace (39.3% - also the best in baseball) while keeping his ERA hovering around 2.00, he'll easily pass the favorites by mid-summer.

The clinical veteran: Chris Sale (+550)

The reigning National League Cy Young winner continues to challenge Father Time, holding a crisp 1.89 ERA through his early starts. Sale's slider remains completely unhittable for left-handed batters, holding opponents to a measly .152 average against his primary mix. Despite being 37 years old, Sale is still top 10 in K percentage, wOBA, hard hit percentage, and swing percentage.

Sale doesn't carry the narrative novelty of Skenes or Misiorowski, which is why his odds have drifted to a highly attractive +550. However, if the younger arms experience typical summer fatigue or late-season workload management, the market will instantly adjust back toward Sale's metronomic consistency. There's a chance you won't see a better price on Sale than right now.

The looming threat: Shohei Ohtani (+550)

Ohtani is authoring a pitching campaign that sounds entirely fictional, carrying a microscopic 0.74 ERA after blanking the Padres yesterday, moving his odds from +700 to +550 overnight. The Dodgers are extending his leash this year, too, pitching him into the sixth inning in seven of eight starts. Ohtani is the epitome of a "freak of nature," and while we may see some voter fatigue after winning back-to-back MVPs, he's having quite the historic start to his season.

At +550, this might just be the highest value you'll see on Ohtani for the rest of the year. Sportsbooks are artificially inflating his price out of the assumption the Dodgers will severely limit his volume later in the year to preserve him for the postseason. If Ohtani clears 160 innings with an ERA anywhere near 1.50, voters will look to make history.

💰 NL Cy Young predictions

The best bet to place right now: Shohei Ohtani (+550)

From a pure risk-to-reward perspective, Ohtani at +550 is a misprice. The Cy Young is historically heavily influenced by national storylines, and an elite pitching campaign from Ohtani while returning to full health is a runaway favorite in my eyes if his sub-1.00 ERA persists into June. Grab the value now before another pair of scoreless outings slashes this price in half.

The kid can't be overlooked: Jacob Misiorowski (+550)

If you want to back a pure pitcher whose odds still offer great breathing room, lock in Misiorowski. He's generating missed bats at a rate that completely changes the game, and playing in a highly competitive division will keep his high-strikeout performances firmly under the media spotlight. The Miz will be a national storyline if he continues this pace - I've wagered him for a full unit already this year.