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Phillies vs. Mets Player Prop Predictions, Odds: Expert Picks for Saturday's London Series

Sean Tomlinson

Last Updated: June 8, 2024 12:43 PM EDT • 3 min 29 sec read.

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suarez throws a pitch against the San Diego Padres during the seventh inning at Petco Park as we look at our Phillies-Mets player props.
Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suarez throws a pitch against the San Diego Padres during the seventh inning at Petco Park. Photo by Orlando Ramirez/USA TODAY Sports.

The Phillies and Mets meet for the 2024 MLB World Tour: London Series, and we're diving into the matchup with our Phillies vs. Mets player props based on the best MLB odds.

When MLB ventures to London, it often brings with it a flurry of runs. This trend may continue as the Philadelphia Phillies (44-19) take on the New York Mets (27-35) in the first of two games at London Stadium, starting on Saturday at 1:10 p.m. ET.

Previous MLB matchups in London have seen remarkably high run totals, especially in the inaugural game where the New York Yankees defeated the Boston Red Sox 17-13. The two games in that series combined for 50 runs in 2019.

Despite modifications to the stadium's setup aimed at reducing dimensions, the shorter fences remain noteworthy, with distances of 330 feet down the lines and 392 feet to straightaway center. This could transform the field into a launching pad, particularly with the Phillies' second-ranked offense in the mix.

Here are our best Phillies vs. Mets player props and MLB picks.

Phillies vs. Mets player props

Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best MLB betting sites.

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Phillies vs. Mets expert picks

Ranger Suarez Under 4.5 strikeouts⭐⭐⭐⭐

There are oh-so-many problems with the Mets. But the issues are mostly tied to pitching, and more specifically a group of starting pitchers who collectively have amassed a 4.41 ERA (22nd).

Their offense is mediocre, too, but not due to frequent whiffing. The Mets have struck out the ninth-fewest times, and despite his overall brilliance in 2024 and status as a contender by the Cy Young odds, Suarez struck out merely three New York batters when he last faced the team on May 15.

Suarez strikes out a decent amount of hitters with a 9.6 K/9. However, he succeeds primarily through inducing weak contact. That shines through with his 55.3 groundball rate, which ranks in the 92nd percentile according to Baseball Savant, and his minuscule average exit velocity allowed of 85.3 MPH.

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The Phillies ace can keep the Mets' bats quiet with that approach, and do it while leaning heavily on a sinker that he throws 32.1% of the time. Suarez can keep thriving on Saturday, just likely not via the strikeout.

A $10 wager at these -120 odds through bet365 would result in an $18.33 payout at an implied probability of 54.55%, per our odds converter.

Elsewhere, FanDuel is also offering a special series prop, in which you can wager on which team will win the series. It's a little more unique in this case because a two-game miniseries isn't as common, making a tie an option, which FanDuel is offering at +104.

However, taking the Phillies at +138 is the better play, even if the Mets' +520 odds are appealing. Philadelphia will trot out Suarez to open the series, and he'll bring his league-leading 1.70 ERA against a middling Mets offense. And overall, Philadelphia should tee off on a 20th-ranked Mets pitching staff.

Best odds: -120 via bet365

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Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Castellanos has been struggling mightily to make consistent contact in 2024. That's surfaced in his batting average, which has plunged from .272 in 2023 to .214 now.

But while the 32-year-old is getting further removed from the height of his career when he clubbed 34 homers while hitting .309 with the Cincinnati Reds, some positive regression could be coming, at least in the short term. Or perhaps it's already beginning.

Castellanos is sporting a .353 slugging percentage, and that's far lower than his expected slugging of .406. We're already seeing a rebound toward the latter number, as the veteran has registered at least one hit in seven of his last eight games. Even better, that stretch includes six extra-base hits, two home runs, and a three-hit outing against the San Francisco Giants.

Now he gets to face a soft-throwing southpaw in Sean Manaea whose fastball velocity ranks in the 24th percentile. And although Castellanos has been limping along overall in 2024, his .745 OPS against lefties is far better than the .581 he's been producing against righties.

A $10 wager on Castellanos to finish with two-plus total bases would result in a $20 payout at these odds, with an implied probability of 50%.

Best odds: +100 via bet365

Phillies vs. Mets odds for Saturday

Phillies vs. Mets game info (London Series)

  • When: Saturday, June 8
  • First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
  • Where: London Stadium (London)
  • How to watch: FOX
  • Favorite: Phillies (-160 via bet365)

Phillies vs. Mets player props made Friday at 5:09 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Sean Tomlinson
Sean Tomlinson has been in the sports media wilderness since 2009, and he joined Sportsbook Review in 2021. His work has been referenced in The New York Times and Forbes. He's also made appearances on The Fan 590 and TSN 1050. Sean is a regular bettor who places bets daily while using a handful of books. Most frequently, he uses FanDuel and bet365 due to the quality experience on those apps. While he'll often take an analytical approach, Sean enjoys the fun, recreational side of betting too, and embraces alternative markets on events like the Westminster Dog Show or Eurovision, or the many novelty props tied annually to the Super Bowl, for example. Beyond sports, Sean is also interested in the betting markets tied to politics, and especially those connected to American elections. He sees betting as a way to explore and engage in a deeper way, and takes that same view to his work. He plays poker periodically too, and is an avid fantasy sports player. Sean also previously spent time with Bleacher Report and theScore, all after earning his media studies degree from the University of Guelph-Humber.